Trump's in the best position he's ever been at this point, chill

Most people reading here are politically active and chronically online and can't quite grasp that what's going on in "politics" online means very little.

A few undisputed facts

1. Trump is polling significantly better than he did at this point in both 2016 and 2020, both nationally and in the swing states.

2. The swing state polls have always underestimated Trump, usually by wide margins.

In 2016 Trump out-performed his RCP average in the rustbelt swing states WI, MI, and PA by: +7.2%, +3.7%, +2.6%

In 2020 Trump out-performed his averages again: +6.7%, +4.2%, +1.2%

3. We are at the most volatile period of polling in every single Presidential election cycle. All honest political pundits will tell you that July and August have high volatility in polling because you have VP picks, you have conventions, etc. This sort of "churn" produces a lot of "react to the last thing I just saw" polling.

4. Undecided voters don't pay any attention until October. Studies have shown most undecided voters don't make up their minds until the month before the election, often times within the last 2 weeks. Low info, low attention span voters don't think about elections months away. Recency bias is huge in human psychology. Studies have shown women and young people are often times the two cohorts that make up their minds the latest (big surprise).