re: Trump’s % margin of victory decreased in the majority of Georgia counties he won in 2016

Hey Ronbot Ham if you had just a few neutral neurons you would know that those mules cheated again.

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Trump claiming he did better in 2020 than 2016 is a very clear, unequivocal reference to the total number of votes he received. You keep posting about margin of victory. It should be plainly obvious that a candidate can get more total votes, yet have his margin of victory fall if his opponent’s total vote count increases by a larger amount.

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Turnout was up across the board, which meant Trump was going to add more votes to his totals.

Even in some counties where Biden ate into Trump’s margin of victory percentage wise, Trump increased his margin of victory in actual votes because turnout was up. But that’s just looking at one side of the equation. Because turnout was up across the board, Biden also increased Dem margin of victories in Dem counties.

Trump barely beat Hillary and he needed to at least maintain his % margin of victory in GOP counties to have a shot against Biden. If Biden were to eat into Trump’s % margin of victory in GOP counties while maintaining or improving Hillary’s % margin of victory in Dem counties, then Biden would win, and that seems to be what happened.

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From a pure vote count, Trump improved his MOV/MOD in 126 out of 159 counties.

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Even in some counties where Biden ate into Trump’s margin of victory percentage wise, Trump increased his margin of victory in actual votes because turnout was up. But that’s just looking at one side of the equation. Because turnout was up across the board, Biden also increased Dem margin of victories in Dem counties.

Trump barely beat Hillary and he needed to at least maintain his % margin of victory in GOP counties to have a shot against Biden. If Biden were to eat into Trump’s % margin of victory in GOP counties while maintaining or improving Hillary’s % margin of victory in Dem counties, then Biden would win, and that seems to be what happened.

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If Trump would have simply maintained his margin of victory in the Georgia counties he won in 2016, he would have easily won the state.

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Trump won 128 counties in 2016. None of them flipped in 2020. His net MOV in those 128 counties increased by 89,530 votes. Out of those 128 counties, his MOV only decreased in 13 of them:

Columbia
Early
Fayette
Forsyth
Glynn
Houston
Lee
Lowndes
Paulding
Quitman
Spalding
Webster
Wilkes

That total decrease was 20,430.

In the counties that Clinton won, Trump's margin of defeat increased by 312,450 in 2020. Trump flipped 1 in 2020.

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Georgia has rejected Trump

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So has all the rest of America that has an IQ higher than Play-Doh

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Turnout was up across the board, which meant Trump was going to add more votes to his totals.

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This is the same flaw you have in your graphics at the start of the thread… your order of causality is dead backwards. Obviously.

It’s ridiculous to say that turnout was up which caused trump to get more votes… the correct order of causality is that trump motivated more people to vote, which is what pushed up turnout. Same thing with your graphic, you’ve got a column labeled “Vote change due to margin of victory”. But that’s such a nonsensical assertion, as margin of victory is not a driving variable. By definition. It is a result variable. Asserting that trump lost votes due to his margin of victory falling is obviously an inverse reading of these statistics. Trump’s margin of victory fell because, despite his getting more votes, the dem’s vote total went up by more. Turnout and margin of victory do not “cause” any change in voting patterns. They are the result of a change in voting patterns.

The claim trump’s camp is making is that they motivated even more people to come out and vote for him in 2020 than in 2016. So for him to still lose 2020, the dem’s had to REALLY motivate their voters to come out at an even larger, borderline impossible rate. Now I disagree with their assertion that the only possible cause of this massive increase in blue voter turnout was fraud. But the argument you are making here fundamentally does not refute that claim.

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The claim trump’s camp is making is that they motivated even more people to come out and vote for him in 2020 than in 2016. So for him to still lose 2020, the dem’s had to REALLY motivate their voters to come out at an even larger, borderline impossible rate. Now I disagree with their assertion that the only possible cause of this massive increase in blue voter turnout was fraud. But the argument you are making here fundamentally does not refute that claim.

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The fact that Trump was leading the 5 states that flipped when in person day of votes were counted proved that he motivated his supporters to get out and vote. The mail-in/drop box votes that favored Biden shows that people weren't as motivated to get out and vote in person, but would fill it out for Biden and mail it or give it to someone to put in a drop box. Trump questioned the validity of those votes.

Jon Ham's claim that for there to be fraud in that process, you would only see changes in a few large dem counties, and the Trump counties would maintain their MOV% from 2016. My question is, how many counties in GA have a predominantly black church? If the dem party contacted every predominantly black church in the state and requested their help with ballot harvesting, how many ballots could they harvest that might not have been cast in 2016?

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The question really is...can something be legit if years later people are still arguing about it's legitimacy and still going round and round in circles?

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Is the earth round if there are flat earthers out there?

Please answer this question Jon. How many counties in GA have a predominantly black church? If the dem party contacted every predominantly black church in the state and requested their help with ballot harvesting, how many ballots could they harvest that might not have been cast in 2016?