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Started By
Message
re: TRUMP Landslide - Still Happening!
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:32 pm to LuckyTiger
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:32 pm to LuckyTiger
Helmut Norpoth, whose model predicted a Trump win in 2016 despite him trailing big in the polls, is predicting that Trump will have a 90% chance to win again. He said his model is based on presidential primary results and other predictors and not polls.
He has said the COVID or riots won't be enough to effect the outcome. He said he is prepared to see Trump possibly lose the popular vote, but win the electoral college. His model has predicted 5 of the last 6 (the only inaccurate one was Bush/Gore which had razor thin margins and tons of controversy).
His formula gets 25 of the 27 presidential elections correct when going back and plugging in the numbers (JFK was the only other one that was off, but was extremely close and contested). He said he gets hate mail from people and even friends, but said he is confident in his system because he uses actual voting results as a predictor and not polls (which he said aren't effective because people being polled often don't even vote).
He has said the COVID or riots won't be enough to effect the outcome. He said he is prepared to see Trump possibly lose the popular vote, but win the electoral college. His model has predicted 5 of the last 6 (the only inaccurate one was Bush/Gore which had razor thin margins and tons of controversy).
His formula gets 25 of the 27 presidential elections correct when going back and plugging in the numbers (JFK was the only other one that was off, but was extremely close and contested). He said he gets hate mail from people and even friends, but said he is confident in his system because he uses actual voting results as a predictor and not polls (which he said aren't effective because people being polled often don't even vote).
0
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:38 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Isn't that from February?
Close.
quote:
This forecast is unconditional and final; hence not subject to any updating. It was first posted March 2, 2020
He did the same thing in 2016 and predicted Trump would win in March of 2016 even though everyone said he was nuts. Again, his formula involves elections and results that have taken place and not useless polls.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:40 pm to Seldom Seen
HI is going red for sure
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:42 pm to SDVTiger
If that map happens I will not ask for anything for Christmas.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:44 pm to Seldom Seen
I’ll just say that whatever happens won’t top my 2016 election night. Actually was with a client and his SJW girlfriend (who the majority of this board would know) at dinner and watched in person a melty melt live. I couldn’t stop laughing and she was about to cry.
Maybe I should invite them to dinner again this year.
Maybe I should invite them to dinner again this year.
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 7:45 pm
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:46 pm to Seldom Seen
Until another candidate enters the race......
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:46 pm to CamdenTiger
I agree, Trump winning NY would be absolutely incredible on the melt scale
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:48 pm to Errerrerrwere
Pretty much. I don’t see us flipping for Trump unfortunately. Best we can hope for is to keep Gardner and that’s a long shot
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:50 pm to BugAC
Gotta get a bigger version of that gif.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:52 pm to theunknownknight
quote:it really is
Best gif ever
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:57 pm to VoxDawg
quote:
If Trump won NY liberals would commit suicide.
You say this like it's a bad thing.
Can the republicans cheat this time to make this happen?
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:57 pm to Seldom Seen
STONY BROOK PROFESSOR!!!!! 
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:57 pm to Seldom Seen
I would literally rip off my pants and go streaking if Trump wins New York 
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:00 pm to LuckyTiger
quote:Wizard
Background on Helmut Norpoth?
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:01 pm to Ancient Astronaut
quote:
If Trump won NY liberals would commit suicide.
dude when TRUMP wins PERIOD get ready for a few mini JONESTOWNS And HEAVEN'S GATES!
FACT! this will push many of those mentally ill frickwads over the edge!
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:02 pm to Seldom Seen
Trump wins NY and loses NH?
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:10 pm to Seldom Seen
Pro wrestling used to be one of the greatest forms of entertainment ever
You could get away with things that you couldn’t do anywhere else
This fricking woke society Is the worst thing ever. Why can’t people just laugh
You could get away with things that you couldn’t do anywhere else
This fricking woke society Is the worst thing ever. Why can’t people just laugh
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:17 pm to Big EZ Tiger
quote:Yes I understand. But do you understand that the formula means that the final 6-8 months of campaigning leading up to an election are meaningless? Do you believe that? You kind of have to if you put any stock in this model.
He did the same thing in 2016 and predicted Trump would win in March of 2016 even though everyone said he was nuts. Again, his formula involves elections and results that have taken place and not useless polls.
When the guy created this model in 1996, he did it by tweaking variables until it retroactively picked all but 1 prior election correctly. Also, to make more of the retroactive picks work, he used all the primary results before 1952, at which point he switched to New Hampshire only. He later added South Carolina in 2008.
He pats himself on the back for a partial "win" in 2000 when it incorrectly picked Gore because he won the popular vote, but doesn't mention Trump's popular vote loss as a partial "loss" for the model.
I mean, if you need this to give yourself some hope for next month, by all means enjoy it.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:20 pm to Korkstand
If trump wins, will you be ok?
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:29 pm to Jake88
quote:
New York, but not New Hampshire? This projection is invalidated
I agree. NH is more likely than NY. Would be fun if NY did flip.
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