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Trump is going to win FL and NC
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:24 pm
I would just about bet my house on that. If all the other states break as they should, that leaves Trump at 249 with:
PA
MI
MN
WI
AZ
NV
left on the board. I like Trump’s odds in AZ but the west is basically meaningless. Biden will have to run the table in the mid west to win this election, assuming that FL and NC go red.
That’s why it’s so crazy to think that Trumps odds are under 40% at worst. I think it’s at probably 50/50 to 55/45 in his favor.
PA
MI
MN
WI
AZ
NV
left on the board. I like Trump’s odds in AZ but the west is basically meaningless. Biden will have to run the table in the mid west to win this election, assuming that FL and NC go red.
That’s why it’s so crazy to think that Trumps odds are under 40% at worst. I think it’s at probably 50/50 to 55/45 in his favor.
10
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:26 pm to mule74
I think he holds all his electoral votes from last time and he adds Nevada, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:27 pm to mule74
quote:
hat’s why it’s so crazy to think that Trumps odds are under 40% at worst.
Im really disappointed in the oddsmakers. Usually they can see through the BS and see what the situation is. What makes it worse is that you'd assume they would learn from 2016.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:29 pm to mule74
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:31 pm to tigerfan84
I don't think Trump wins NC and Georgia.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:32 pm to mule74
Liberals are usually awful gamblers.
They were laying 12:1 and higher against Trump in 2016 after FL was 50% in.
They were laying 12:1 and higher against Trump in 2016 after FL was 50% in.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:32 pm to mule74
I haven’t paid any attention to NC because I’ve been so focused on FL, NV and the Midwest states. Have there been any good threads on TD breaking down the polls and early votes of NC?
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:34 pm to tigerfan84
quote:
This is Kevin McCullough's latest map
I would have to clean excrement from my pants if Trump flipped NM. IJS
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:34 pm to mule74
Biden has to go undefeated in PA, MI, WI & MN.
I just don’t see it.
All the pressure is on Biden.
I just don’t see it.
All the pressure is on Biden.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:35 pm to tigerfan84
Does this guy seriously have NM as a tossup state?
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:37 pm to Eli Goldfinger
quote:What if Trump wins NV?
Biden has to go undefeated in PA, MI, WI & MN.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:39 pm to tigerfan84
This map is equally as ridiculous as Biden being up by 8 in the polls
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:50 pm to olemc999
quote:
Does this guy seriously have NM as a tossup state?
Bush won it in 2004. Bush (49.84%) vs John Kerry (49.05%)
I think today's race and the 2004 race are similar. Lots of patriots still pumped about 9/11 voted for Bush. Kerry lacked enthusiasm.
This time patriots are pumped about defeating the deranged left. Biden is demented.
2004 United States presidential election
This post was edited on 10/28/20 at 2:53 pm
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:55 pm to Langland
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:59 pm to Janky
Thanks - yah I agree that looks good enough for Trump to win especially given that NC still has a decent amount of old Southern Dems who never bothered to change party registration but vote reliably Republican in national elections 
Posted on 10/28/20 at 3:16 pm to mule74
quote:
Trump is going to win FL and NC
I cant see NC...fricking Asheville is a fricking Birkenstock pettuli cesspool.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 3:18 pm to olemc999
quote:
I think he holds all his electoral votes from last time and he adds Nevada, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.
I'm feeling more and more confident this is correct.
NH will be the first sign. Will be a good early tell!
Posted on 10/28/20 at 3:20 pm to mule74
I don't think it's that surprising. I think he wins FL and I think he pulls out NC, GA, OH, etc. Pollsters probably put that at 50-50, I personally put it at 75%.
But he still needs AZ+PA, and the only data is iffy. I think it's possible, but I don't feel confident in it. Pollsters probably gauge that at about 20%, I think it's more like 40%.
IMO there is no evidentiary reason to feel confident in any of the other states listed (MI, MN, WI, NV).
But he still needs AZ+PA, and the only data is iffy. I think it's possible, but I don't feel confident in it. Pollsters probably gauge that at about 20%, I think it's more like 40%.
IMO there is no evidentiary reason to feel confident in any of the other states listed (MI, MN, WI, NV).
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