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re: Trump has +2 lead over Kamala based on 67 polls
Posted on 7/22/24 at 7:45 am to dallastiger55
Posted on 7/22/24 at 7:45 am to dallastiger55
Celebrity endorsements carry 0 weight
0
Posted on 7/22/24 at 7:46 am to Contra
There’s no real polling on Trump vs. Kamala.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 9:13 am to Mephistopheles
quote:
She is such a fraudster she had to be banned from running a charity, has been found by a jury to have sexually assaulted someone...
Wait, so she’s the female Trump?
Posted on 7/22/24 at 9:30 am to DallasTiger11
But she still has to open her mouth. This isn’t Biden who they can’t have appearing to be a dementia patient. Kamala might be the most unlikable candidate ever to run. Her presidential campaign was shockingly awful.
You would think, first black female VP they’d be parading her around in front of everyone. When’s the last time you saw her make any statements? Her responses on the border crisis and Covid at the beginning of the term were awful, and she’s basically said nothing for the last two years.
I fully expect her entire platform to be Racism and Roe v Wade. That’s it. They won’t talk about anything else. If the Trump campaign is smart, they can beat this by preparing themselves accordingly. She will not hold up to scrutiny and as such if you prepare your rebuttals and practice, she can’t respond. She’s really not very smart.
Honestly I think Trump may have historically high numbers with black voters this time around. They hate her.
You would think, first black female VP they’d be parading her around in front of everyone. When’s the last time you saw her make any statements? Her responses on the border crisis and Covid at the beginning of the term were awful, and she’s basically said nothing for the last two years.
I fully expect her entire platform to be Racism and Roe v Wade. That’s it. They won’t talk about anything else. If the Trump campaign is smart, they can beat this by preparing themselves accordingly. She will not hold up to scrutiny and as such if you prepare your rebuttals and practice, she can’t respond. She’s really not very smart.
Honestly I think Trump may have historically high numbers with black voters this time around. They hate her.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 9:32 am to geauxpurple
quote:
How can it even be that close?
National poll. If the gop is up in national poll, that means Trump is way up.
+ 6 is landslide territory.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 9:33 am to Contra
Which really means a 6 point lead
Posted on 7/22/24 at 9:37 am to Tenn grad LSU fan
You guys underestimate the vote blue no matter who crowd.
Many of them were staying home so she will get many to vote
Many of them were staying home so she will get many to vote
Posted on 7/22/24 at 9:38 am to elprez00
quote:
I fully expect her entire platform to be Racism and Roe v Wade. That’s it. They won’t talk about anything else.
I believe her campaign will boil down to this:
"Trump is dangerous."
"The only way to insure Trump doesn't get elected is to vote for the Democratic nominee."
"That's me. A vote for me is a vote against Trump."
Now how will they characterize Trump as dangerous? Yes, they'll lean into Roe vs Wade and some of his more racist comments. They'll also be able to lean into his age and mental faculties now as they don't have Biden with worse issues in the same area on the ticket.
To be honest I don't think there will be a debate between Trump and Harris. Neither seem to want it to happen. I think that's a mistake from Trump's perspective. Harris would rather have most of the campaign be in ads with a few heavily pre-prepared speeches. Her goal is to make the election a referendum on Trump.
Trump wants to attack Harris to show swing voters that she's a worse option than he is A debate would be the best opportunity to do that. But I think he's feeling secure right now so doesn't think he needs to. I think that could be a major mistake. I don't think Trump's strong enough to win if the election is just a referendum on him.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 9:39 am to Contra
quote:
Trump has +2 lead over Kamala based on 67 polls
None of them have been conducted since yesterday afternoon.
That will not be the result when actual polling with her as the candidate starts rolling out at the end of the week.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 9:48 am to dallastiger55
quote:
You guys underestimate the vote blue no matter who crowd.
Many of them were staying home so she will get many to vote
THis is true (but for both sides).
40-45% of voters will always vote Democrat.
40-45% of voters will always vote Republican.
There are 10-20% in the middle who decide things.
Campaigning is about turning out your base and convincing that 10-20% of swing voters.
I won a bet with a co-worker about this a few years back. Alvin Greene, a truly HORRIBLE person ended up winning the democratic primary that had almost no turnout for Senate here in SC to run against Jim Demint. Everyone thought Vic Rawl would be the nominee, but because of that almost nobody voted in the primary and he lost. Greene had no party support, no financial backing... and he was running in SC which is a state that leans heavily Republican to begin with. There was also a Green Party candidate running.
My co-worker thought there was no way Greene would get 20% of the vote or more. He was that bad a candidate. I told him that in SC you could run the most horrible candidate in the world for statewide office and the Democrat would get at least 25% and the REpublican would get at least 40%.
Greene got 27% of the vote (the Green party candidate also managed 9%, a high for them in a SC state wide election). Won a case of beer on that bet.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 9:53 am to Contra
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. With the recent polls with it simply being Trump vs Harris, he’s up by an average of 2.53 points, which is just devastating and still means Trump basically wins every swing state.
On Election Day 2020, Biden was up by 7.2 points in the polls and actually finished winning by 4.5 points and a mere 43,000 votes in three states. So that really means it’s over a nine point swing in from this election in the polling, which is almost one in ten Americans switching their vote to Trump.
Trump’s numbers are still a very comfortable win, but don’t get complacent.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 9:54 am to OMLandshark
quote:
With the recent polls with it simply being Trump vs Harris, he’s up by an average of 2.53 points, which is just devastating and still means Trump basically wins every swing state.
On Election Day 2020, Biden was up by 7.2 points in the polls and actually finished winning by 4.5 points and a mere 43,000 votes in three states. So that really means it’s over a nine point swing in from this election in the polling, which is almost one in ten Americans switching their vote to Trump.
Trump’s numbers are still a very comfortable win, but don’t get complacent.
You can throw all of those polls out of the window. Kamala wasn't the nominee.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 9:59 am to Indefatigable
quote:
You can throw all of those polls out of the window. Kamala wasn't the nominee.
Possibly but are people really going to switch to Kamala when they hear her talk? A lot of people are going to be thinking “I can’t stand four to eight years of this cackling bitch on TV, so Trump it is since at least Trump is funny.”
Hell, I’m willing to bet that Trump’s numbers aren’t going to boost much and it’s actually RFK whose polls are going to skyrocket. After rigging the primaries so they had no say in them and then have the balls to call themselves the “Party of Democracy™” many sane Democrats will say “frick this shite. No way she would have won the nomination in a fair primary, I’m voting for a Kennedy.”
Posted on 7/22/24 at 10:35 am to OMLandshark
Last time I took a math test….all of those were greater than 2%.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 11:27 am to Contra
Only 2 fricking points? WTF is wrong with those idiots that will vote for anything with a D behind his name.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 11:33 am to geauxpurple
quote:
How can it even be that close?
The country is split. You can run a one armed blind retarded orangutan and put a D by it's name and it will get 40% of the vote. We've gotten too stupid as a people that it's easier to pull the lever for a D then it is to think.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 11:36 am to SCLibertarian
There haven't been that many polls in two days, pure BS.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 11:39 am to Old1937
Real Clear sats only one poll yesterday and that was for Georgia and it was Trunp + 5
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