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Message
re: Truck Drivers Say They Won’t Deliver To Cities with Defunded Police Departments
Posted on 6/13/20 at 8:23 am to KiwiHead
Posted on 6/13/20 at 8:23 am to KiwiHead
quote:
Until the food replicators are invented, you are going to need truckers to get your food to you.
Why? Or at least how many?
Lets say programming urban driving takes longer than a decade, you still lose lots of jobs for long-haul freight. One model I read about would basically have stations set outside of urban areas where the automated truck parks and a human driver takes over to make the short run deliveries. But that is still a lot of manual hours lost on the road.
2
Posted on 6/13/20 at 8:24 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
In Louisiana, if an outlet buys alcohol from a distributor they have to pay cash. In the days before cashless transactions, you drove a beer truck full of alcohol and cash.
The route that covered the ninth ward, it did no good to have armed security. We used to "rent" a cop car and two cops to follow the truck to each stop, get out with guns and guard the deliveries.
Sidenote, one of the guys we used each week was really nice. He was on a raid on a crack house and his brother (also a cop) was listening on the radio at the precinct to the bust. He said his brother said they were going in....then gunshots before they even busted down the door and knew his fellow cops would not be shooting first. Next thing he heard was another cop talking to his brother...hold on, help is on the way, just hold on. Bullet caught him right above his vest, shattered his artery and he died. Had not thought about that in year, good policeman, great guy.
Dang. Hate to hear that. Tough for his brother to be listening, too
Posted on 6/13/20 at 8:27 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
But some fields are at greater risk than others. Let's focus on one big one: trucking. Truck drivers may be replaced by automated technology as early as 2027. According to the researchers, artificial intelligence could be maneuvering trucks on the road within the next decade. "All jobs are being impacted by technological change - some more than others," said Nicholas Wyman, CEO of the Institute for Workplace Skills and Development and author of Job U: How to Find Wealth and Success by Developing the Skills Companies Actually Need. "Driverless trucks are now used extensively in the mining industry and it's certain this technology will impact other parts of transport and distribution."
Automated trucks may be used in limited applications in local hubs, but they will never replace drivers for OTR.
There is too much involved that can't be computerized. The people who think it can happen, don't know jack shite about the real trucking business. They think they do. They think they have all the answers, but they aren't smart enough to imagine the questions.
Posted on 6/13/20 at 8:29 am to WPBTiger
.......Reginald Denny agrees.
Posted on 6/13/20 at 8:31 am to Antonio Moss
Producing links doesn't mean anything, nobody said they weren't testing things. They have decades of testing, decades of statutory and regulator changes, and decades or designing new trucks to be able to do any of this at scale. Long-haul will have to be tackled first, and that is going to be many decades to get to scale.... and for someone to get their it will be probably require trillions of dollar of loses.
Look I have a link to an article that the planet is going to freeze due to climate change... it must be right.
Look I have a link to an article that the planet is going to freeze due to climate change... it must be right.
This post was edited on 6/13/20 at 8:32 am
Posted on 6/13/20 at 8:32 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
I have never piloted a rocket and docked with the ISS. But I know that a computer did it successfully a week ago.
How much traffic did that rocket encounter? How many breakdowns did it have? How many extra docks did that rocket have to back into? How many unforeseen circumstances were encountered?
Posted on 6/13/20 at 8:33 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
Why? Or at least how many? Lets say programming urban driving takes longer than a decade, you still lose lots of jobs for long-haul freight. One model I read about would basically have stations set outside of urban areas where the automated truck parks and a human driver takes over to make the short run deliveries. But that is still a lot of manual hours lost on the road.
Absolutely, long-haul trucking will probably be the first real test... at scale it will take decades and probably their own road ways. 100s of billions or Trillions of dollars of loses first.
I knew some people that were going to be the uber of trucking, invested millions and millions... now uber is just an app and directing drivers. They went under, whole bunch of competitors... going under. Uber doesn't do anything... and billions and billions of loses.
All of this is very long term and might never bear fruit son.
This post was edited on 6/13/20 at 8:35 am
Posted on 6/13/20 at 8:33 am to Bamafig
quote:
They would simply move between hubs or depots
This is what I have always been led to believe according to articles I have read on the matter.
Posted on 6/13/20 at 8:43 am to GeauxFightingTigers1
quote:
at scale it will take decades and probably their own road ways. 100s of billions or Trillions of dollars of loses
They aren’t building their own roadways
Another study on it mention that increase in efficiency would allow companies to pay every truck driver $45,000 a year to stay home and still net them billions in increased profit.
Testing has already been going on for decades.
Scale is an issue but Goldman-Sachs recently put out a report that the industry will see about 300,000 job losses per year due to automation in the very near future. There are about 3.5 million trucking jobs in the US. At a steady scale, that is 12 years (clearly it won’t be steady as long haul will probably develop quickly and then short route/urban transit will take more time).
Nevertheless, having 500,000-1,000,000 jobs lost in an industry that, up to this point, was incredibly consistent, is a big deal economically.
Hence why I said way back that conservatives will have to adjust their view of economic policy.
It won’t only affect trucking, but trucking will the earliest and hardest hit.
Posted on 6/13/20 at 8:52 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
Testing has already been going on for decades.
So?
Look kid, maybe you don't understand most things don't change overnight. Regulator, statutory changes, let alone all the mechanical and design changes, let alone processes and procedure for break down and fixes.
Tell you what, you explain to me what a truck has to be able to do in NC to be able to get on the road.
What you are talking about is what people were telling me in 2013-2015, they're really not any further along at scale dumb arse.
Just because someone is testing something doesn't mean it can be deployed at scale. Please do everyone a favor on this board... get of the interwebs... you're stupidity knows no bounds.
quote:
Hence why I said way back that conservatives will have to adjust their view of economic policy. It won’t only affect trucking, but trucking will the earliest and hardest hit.
This is prime example of your stupidity, what does any of this have to do with "conservatives".
quote:
report that the industry will see about 300,000 job losses per year due to automation in the very near future
And I can post reports that the planet was going to be frozen by the 80s... I'm still waiting.
What you are saying is the same thing I heard 5-8 years ago,they're not doing anything at scale.... and I doubt they can even make any money on it.
I tell you what, you get rig, tell me how long it takes you to get up and running with NCDOT... and that's just a simple tracker. (good luck finding help)
Long haul will most probably require their own roads, eventually, I doubt anyone can make any money on this anyway. I seriously doubt you will see any of this at scale in my lifetime, long-haul is decades, inner cities... complete redesign of basically everything would be needed. Best case for anything long-haul... generations... and most probably never.
This post was edited on 6/13/20 at 8:56 am
Posted on 6/13/20 at 8:53 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
Good last stand for workforce that will be all but obsolete in the next decade or so.
Those autonomous trucks delivering to defunded police zones will be able to defend themselves so well.
Posted on 6/13/20 at 8:54 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
Another study on it mention that increase in efficiency would allow companies to pay every truck driver $45,000 a year to stay home and still net them billions in increased profit. Testing has already been going on for decades. Scale is an issue but Goldman-Sachs recently put out a report that the industry will see about 300,000 job losses per year due to automation in the very near future. There are about 3.5 million trucking jobs in the US. At a steady scale, that is 12 years (clearly it won’t be steady as long haul will probably develop quickly and then short route/urban transit will take more time). Nevertheless, having 500,000-1,000,000 jobs lost in an industry that, up to this point, was incredibly consistent, is a big deal economically. Hence why I said way back that conservatives will have to adjust their view of economic policy. It won’t only affect trucking, but trucking will the earliest and hardest hit.
So, how many people who did this study, know anything about the trucking business? How many of them have ever driven OTR, or owned OTR trucks?
I own trucks, I pay drivers. It would be great if I could just buy trucks and get rid of the drivers, but it will never happen. There are too many reasons why it can't happen, to even tell you. I could give you a list of all the reasons why it can't work, but a new reason will present itself to me Sunday night, that I never imagined before. That's the reality of trucking.
Posted on 6/13/20 at 8:58 am to auggie
quote:
So, how many people who did this study, know anything about the trucking business? How many of them have ever driven OTR, or owned OTR trucks?
Two of their key assumptions was the police would not be defunded and there are no criminals.
Study fails right there.
Posted on 6/13/20 at 9:08 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
Conservatives are going to have to adjust some of their views because these values, which have been accurate up to this point, won’t be realistic moving forward.
This thread is about human behavior, not technological advancement. I don’t believe any conservative participating in this discussion is arguing against the idea that technology can be improved or perfected over time.
Yet no amount of technological progress will change the human equation. What conservatives believe is that human behavior — unlike technology— is fixed and immutable.
Posted on 6/13/20 at 9:10 am to GumboPot
quote:
Two of their key assumptions was the police would not be defunded and there are no criminals. Study fails right there.
Yeah, and I wasn't even using that in my argument, because My Guys won't be going into those types of areas anyway. Automated OTR trucks will never happen, because of the same reasons that have been around forever.
Posted on 6/13/20 at 9:14 am to ShortyRob
quote:
If you have children under the age of 20 they are going to live to see a country that has virtually no cars that people drive
There's no "ifs" when it comes to how stupid one must be to believe this nonsense.
Posted on 6/13/20 at 9:15 am to GeauxFightingTigers1
quote:Auto trucking will actually increase the reward/risk ratio for the hijackers. Without a human driver it degrades hijacking into a non-violent crime, no longer at least an aggravated assault as no weapon needed. Lesser sentences if caught without the added weapon enhancement.
And no, automating truckers will not stop hijacking... it will make it trivial to do.
Easier, more risk/reward incentive, ... what could go wrong?
Posted on 6/13/20 at 9:16 am to Toomer Deplorable
quote:
This thread is about human behavior, not technological advancement. I don’t believe any conservative participating in this discussion is arguing against the idea that technology can be improved or perfected over time.
Yet no amount of technological progress will change the human equation. What conservatives believe is that human behavior — unlike technology— is fixed and immutable.
I mean more economically.
How will our view of economic responsibility change when a significant percentage of people are simply unemployable due to automation?
For the last 200 years (since rapid industrialization in the US) jobs have been consistently plentiful so requiring that people gain meaningful employment to sustain themselves was a noble social value. But when that changes, how do we adapt that value?
Posted on 6/13/20 at 9:38 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
How will our view of economic responsibility change when a significant percentage of people are simply unemployable due to automation?
Automation has existed before any of us were born, I hate to tell you but the machines don't fix themselves.
Not even sure what your point is to be honest, you act like automation is something new, its not... most of the huge gains from automation have already occurred prior to the 2000s. At this point, automation is down to squeezing the last few percent... without true AI and to me what is being done today is not AI, its still pattern matching... the vast majority of the automation has been in place for decades.
Like most millennial you have a narrow vision of how things work in context. Which is why you have these nutbags that thought solar and wind could ever take over the grid in the U.S. .... its fantasy land.
Even the dumb of the dumb (Michael Moore) are starting to figure it out.
LINK
I literally had millennial trying to convince me (a decade+) all this solar/wind shite was going to take over in a decade... I told them not in my lifetime (35-50 years) and maybe never.
Its hard to have discussions with people like you as you are ignorant of how things current work, have no desire to learn, and are narrow minded in believing you just install an app.
Its the learn to code stupid mentality.
Every month for literally two decades you have a new article on NEW battery technology that is going to revolutionize energy storage.... products never come out, and they move on to the next thing.
You should see the Popular Science articles from the 60s talking about cold fusion right around the corner.
This post was edited on 6/13/20 at 9:47 am
Posted on 6/13/20 at 9:45 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
For the last 200 years (since rapid industrialization in the US) jobs have been consistently plentiful so requiring that people gain meaningful employment to sustain themselves was a noble social value. But when that changes, how do we adapt that value?
This sounds like a lead in a moron would use to wax poetically about UBI. Can't imagine how painfully stupid you are.
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