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Started By
Message
Trafalgar Poll Question
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:33 am
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:33 am
So is this poll legit or not? I’m still confused on what the poster earlier was trying to say about them using false data.
6
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:34 am to GAFF
if trump is leading it is legit
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:34 am to GAFF
I think their official ones are legit. If I read correctly, someone posited a fraudulent Trafalgar poll and Nate Silver ran with the data.
Now he's bitching because he was duped.
I think that's why Cahaley came out and said that people can take things NOT posted by them but attributed to Trafalgar at their own risk.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
Now he's bitching because he was duped.
I think that's why Cahaley came out and said that people can take things NOT posted by them but attributed to Trafalgar at their own risk.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:35 am to ksayetiger
Well, he is, so you're saying is legit?
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:36 am to GAFF
On this day in 2016 Trump was +300 in the gambling market. Today he is +188. 67% of the bets coming in we’re on Trump but the action has moved.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:37 am to elit4ce05
quote:
Well, he is, so you're saying is legit?
actually yes
but I think it is the most accurate as well after watching the trafalgar guy in an interview explain why they are better
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:37 am to sweetwaterbilly
Correct.
Also Nate has big beef with Trafalgar. After Nate coitized one of their polls, Cahaley came out and said they were the most accurate pollster in 2016 and they would be again this year and then he tried to get Nate to bet on it, to which he declined.
Also Nate has big beef with Trafalgar. After Nate coitized one of their polls, Cahaley came out and said they were the most accurate pollster in 2016 and they would be again this year and then he tried to get Nate to bet on it, to which he declined.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:37 am to Jp1LSU
quote:What does this mean in plain English?
67% of the bets coming in we’re on Trump but the action has moved.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:38 am to Jp1LSU
trump is +169 on BOOKMAKER right now
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:38 am to LSURussian
I bet 10 bucks on Trump to win every swing state for 3k payout.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:39 am to sweetwaterbilly
quote:
I think their official ones are legit. If I read correctly, someone posited a fraudulent Trafalgar poll and Nate Silver ran with the data.
Now he's bitching because he was duped.
I think that's why Cahaley came out and said that people can take things NOT posted by them but attributed to Trafalgar at their own risk.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
This is how I took it. Seems like the ones they post on their sites are the ones they back. The others almost sounded like they were experimental polls just playing around with the demos. I could be completely wrong though
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:41 am to GAFF
quote:
So is this poll legit or not? I’m still confused on what the poster earlier was trying to say about them using false data.
They were one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 midterm elections.
They poll by automated phone calls and the poll questions are short and sweet. This method tends to keep people from hanging up on them. Trump voters are usually busy and just don't want to put up with long polling questions so they get filtered out of MSM polls that are long, drawn out and have leading questions. Trafalgar attempts to avoid those issues that leads to poor polling numbers.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:41 am to Jp1LSU
BOOKMAKER has bets for the EV in many states also. I think i will make some easy money on certain states.
damn some pretty good odds also
damn some pretty good odds also
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:43 am to GAFF
Given how wrong the "legit" ones were in 2016, I'd say it doesn't really matter.
You'd have to be headless to look around at all the relevant variables and think Biden is actually up by 4-6 points in all the battleground and "battleground" states.
Just my $.02
You'd have to be headless to look around at all the relevant variables and think Biden is actually up by 4-6 points in all the battleground and "battleground" states.
Just my $.02
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:44 am to GAFF
quote:
So is this poll legit or not?
What do you Mean? It was one of the only Pollsters that got the 2016 election correct.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:46 am to MickeyLikesDags21
They do shorter polls and a mix of phone/online/etc. to try and get more average Joe's to participate in them, which of course would give you a more accurate result
Think about it, who answers these other 50-question phone polls?
1. Dems that love telling you how liberal they are
2. Never-Trumpers that love telling you they're flipping
3. Old People on both sides
Of those 3 groups, what kind of responses would you expect to get on a poll where 20 out of 50 questions are about Covid?
Think about it, who answers these other 50-question phone polls?
1. Dems that love telling you how liberal they are
2. Never-Trumpers that love telling you they're flipping
3. Old People on both sides
Of those 3 groups, what kind of responses would you expect to get on a poll where 20 out of 50 questions are about Covid?
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