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Started By
Message
Trafalgar Pennsylvania Poll: Trump +1%!
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:40 am
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:40 am
Robert C. Cahaly
@RobertCahaly
Our new @trafalgar_group
#2020Election #BattlegroundState #PApoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a narrow Trump lead for the first time:
48.4% @realDonaldTrump
,
47.6% @JoeBiden
,
2.2% @Jorgensen4POTUS
,
0.7% Other,
1.0% Und. See Report:
@RobertCahaly
Our new @trafalgar_group
#2020Election #BattlegroundState #PApoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a narrow Trump lead for the first time:
48.4% @realDonaldTrump
,
47.6% @JoeBiden
,
2.2% @Jorgensen4POTUS
,
0.7% Other,
1.0% Und. See Report:
7
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:40 am to joshnorris14
Time to order your champagne, boys
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:42 am to joshnorris14
But nate bronze said trafalgar was crazy!
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:42 am to joshnorris14
I pointed out in the other thread that the riots in Philly didn't help Democrats in the summer and videos of looting and rioters injuring police won't play well in the suburbs that Biden needs to win in order to counteract TRUMP's support in western PA.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:44 am to joshnorris14
We have the best polls don’t we folks? 
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:45 am to joshnorris14
quote:
Trafalgar Pennsylvania Poll: Trump +1%!
And
quote:
Trafalgar Pennsylvania Poll
is +2 on the first page
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:46 am to joshnorris14
quote:I don’t think Trafalgar polls wills br accurate (they call fewer races right and are way more likely to fall outside the MOE in their polling than the average pollster).
Time to order your champagne, boys
That said, my parents (Trump supporters) think Trump will win, but most importantly my 4-year-old just said he thinks Donald Trump will win and The Hulk is going to help him. And I haven’t considered The Hulk’s influence on the election until now.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:46 am to TakingStock
I saw a dem earlier say that the protest/riots helped democrats. 
These people have no sense of reality.
These people have no sense of reality.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:46 am to joshnorris14
Honest question for those that don’t know (me): why trust Trafalgar polls?
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:49 am to Jizzy08
quote:
Honest question for those that don’t know (me): why trust Trafalgar polls
They are the only poll that take desirability bias seriously.
And that was one reason they were right in 2016 and everyone else was wrong.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:50 am to Jizzy08
Trafalgar predicted the quiet Trump voter in 2016 and were right on basically everything. Their polls were quick and remove the "judgemental" part of polls by asking questions like "Who are your neighbors voting for"
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:52 am to saints5021
I was polled by Trafalgar 2 weeks ago and was amazed at how unbiased the questions were. Meanwhile, other polls are push polls and ask questions like:
"Given President Trump's handling of the pandemic, are you more or less likely to vote for him?"
"Given President Trump's handling of the pandemic, are you more or less likely to vote for him?"
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:54 am to TakingStock
Man I’m so curious to see how these polls shake out. Somebody’s gonna be WAY OFF!!!
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:55 am to Jizzy08
quote:They were considered by Real Clear Politics to be one of the most accurate polls in 2016 and THE most accurate poll in 2018, despite the fact that they gave both Cruz and Kemp larger margins of victory.
Honest question for those that don’t know (me): why trust Trafalgar polls?
The only reason anyone even considers rejecting them is because of the 2018 TX and GA results, despite the fact that they were still more accurate than any other polling group.
I think they were the only polling group to successfully call Florida correctly in 2018.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:36 pm to xxTIMMYxx
If the riots helped Democrats then they would be in the news. We would also have more of them .
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:37 pm to joshnorris14
quote:
Trafalgar Pennsylvania Poll: Trump +1%!
And keep in mind that this is a trailing indicator. He's probably up higher than this today as there's a clear trend here with Trump's improving numbers.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:38 pm to joshnorris14
Isn’t Trafalgar the only poll that got 2016 correct?
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:40 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
And I haven’t considered The Hulk’s influence on the election until now.
Hulk smash!
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:54 pm to olemc999
quote:
Isn’t Trafalgar the only poll that got 2016 correct?
How'd they do in 2018? This board doesn't want to answer that
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:54 pm to Jizzy08
quote:
Honest question for those that don’t know (me): why trust Trafalgar polls?
I don't know. You see people in other threads say "don't trust any polls" but then you have them in this thread saying this poll is great. It's textbook confirmation bias.
You get a better sense of where things truly stand by using an aggregate of the polls. Outlier results here and there doesn't mean that the polls that got it right necessarily have a superior polling methodology. They may, but that has to be demonstrated over time.
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