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re: This is Birx and Fauci’s escape hatch
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:20 pm to Bayou
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:20 pm to Bayou
Completely agree. They overestimate people whine. They underestimate people go ballistic.
Which would you rather have?
They are looking at models. Heres hoping the Herculean effort by the American people will put a massive dent in that number. I'm on the hopeful side but we need to prepare as a nation in case we do hit those numbers.
Which would you rather have?
They are looking at models. Heres hoping the Herculean effort by the American people will put a massive dent in that number. I'm on the hopeful side but we need to prepare as a nation in case we do hit those numbers.
0
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:34 pm to FlexDawg
I’ve addressed part of that post in another thread of thought, but within this one:
Were western hospitals floored and had to activate surge capacity to meet ICU and vent demand that year (which was a massive outlier for flu)?
Amd in spite of massive containment efforts to boot?
If not, then that is a clear and objective point of fact devoid of statistics or places to twist perspective that indicates definitively that it’s on its own tier from flu.
Were western hospitals floored and had to activate surge capacity to meet ICU and vent demand that year (which was a massive outlier for flu)?
Amd in spite of massive containment efforts to boot?
If not, then that is a clear and objective point of fact devoid of statistics or places to twist perspective that indicates definitively that it’s on its own tier from flu.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:59 am to OldTigahFot
quote:
So yesterday it was 100,000-200,000. Now we are hoping for <100,000 ?
I heard Trump say last evening that it's going to be really bad the next couple of weeks. What do you think he meant? Do you think he is misdirecting for any reason?
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:02 am to aTmTexas Dillo
He's acknowledged it will get bad the next couple of weeks. Not much more to be said unfortunately.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:26 am to FlexDawg
quote:
This is Birx and Fauci’s escape hatch
Or, they're trying to get the dumbasses to quit be dumbasses
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:28 am to FlexDawg
quote:
Still, Birx and Fauci stressed that the total number of deaths is not certain to hit 100,000 if Americans strictly follow recommendations on social distancing.
...so in other words quarantines work. Humanity has only known this for, what, thousands of years now?
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 7:29 am
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:29 am to FlexDawg
quote:maybe this isn’t a big game of gotcha? Maybe they are trying to lessen death, ever think of that?
They can never be told they’re wrong because of this:
Still, Birx and Fauci stressed that the total number of deaths is not certain to hit 100,000 if Americans strictly follow recommendations on social distancing.
“We really believe and hope every day that we can do a lot better than that,” Birx said.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:32 am to FlexDawg
quote:
The country that handles this the worst and uses the least amount of guidelines won’t even hit 100k deaths.
The US, India, and Indonesia all won't make it to the other side of this thing with less than 100K dead unless some yet to be foreseen intervening factor. The math on this is brutal.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:32 am to Boatshoes
We won’t sniff 100,000. Maybe not even 50,000. There’s only 42,000 deaths worldwide right now.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:37 am to BuzzSaw 12
quote:
There is no way 100-200 thousand people are dying of this in the next two weeks in this country
No one said it would happen in the next two weeks.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:40 am to Powerman
quote:
He's acknowledged it will get bad the next couple of weeks. Not much more to be said unfortunately.
so no as if miracle??
the problem with the o/u is trump was not realistic or forthcoming from the get go. if he had come on strong like "do the social distancing. stay away from old people. show the world! we can stop it cold in 30 days if we cut it off now.
oh no. he was worried about the relationship between the economy and reelection.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:40 am to loogaroo
quote:
frick, man. This is just like hurricane models, but the storm is invisible.
Said the exact same thing last night.
These computer models are bullshite, for storms and pandemics they model worst case scenarios.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:44 am to FlexDawg
Truth is, no one will ever be able to say definitively if the quarantine, social distancing and shelter in place laws did any good or if we would have achieved the same results if we had chosen to simply go on with regular activities.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:47 am to TigahTeeth
quote:
We won’t sniff 100,000. Maybe not even 50,000. There’s only 42,000 deaths worldwide right now
I really do hope you're right. But the mortality rate is ~1% and that's with the appropriate medical structure in place. 14 days ago we were at ~4,500 cases in the US and now we're at ~190,000 confirmed. The actual total is of course much higher than that. If the case rate keeps growing like that, 100K dead seems like the low-end.
So let me ask you. What do you think the limiting factor would be to keep up under 100K/
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:52 am to Revelator
quote:
Truth is, no one will ever be able to say definitively if the quarantine, social distancing and shelter in place laws did any good or if we would have achieved the same results if we had chosen to simply go on with regular activities.
This is incorrect. The impact of social distancing will be clearly observable in the data We would over time see the instances of new cases stop growing and eventually begin shrinking. Japan and S. Korea have clearly experienced this.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:54 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
This is incorrect. The impact of social distancing will be clearly observable in the data We would over time see the instances of new cases stop growing and eventually begin shrinking
And we will never know if the same thing would have played out without social distancing. Like I said in my previous post, will never know.
And I’m not talking about quarantining the sick or isolating the elderly.
I’m talking about forcing everyone to stay at home.
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 7:56 am
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:54 am to FlexDawg
quote:
the doomsayers can’t ever be wrong because they can always fall back on “well you followed our guidelines amazingly and that’s why we had less deaths than projected”
We all knew this was the case.
You frickers just wait until we get a Green New Deal person in office. They will use the same "science" and the same executive powers to enact their policies. The ground work for this has been laid.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:54 am to BuzzSaw 12
quote:
There is no way 100-200 thousand people are dying of this in the next two weeks
Why are you focusing on the next two weeks?
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:56 am to FlexDawg
quote:
“well you followed our guidelines amazingly and that’s why we had less deaths than projected”
This will also be used by the dims and msm to justify all the panic and shutting down the economy.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 7:58 am to JuiceTerry
quote:
Do you have any doubt that trump will use this exact line?
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