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Message
re: Texas Power Grid
Posted on 2/15/21 at 11:31 am to CorchJay
Posted on 2/15/21 at 11:31 am to CorchJay
Not a single bit of anything I have said is private, insider or confidential information.
Even the numbers I quoted are available from the ERCOT app in the Apple App Store. The app has a snapshot of grid conditions updated every 15 minutes.
Even the numbers I quoted are available from the ERCOT app in the Apple App Store. The app has a snapshot of grid conditions updated every 15 minutes.
2
Posted on 2/15/21 at 11:32 am to hollowpoint
Ok awesome just looking out for you bro.
Posted on 2/15/21 at 11:33 am to CorchJay
quote:
In the end it will be the customers
If you're alluding to the fact that we'll all be paying up in the end in taxes then I whole heartedly agree....ultimately the tax payers will be on the hook.
However, this is one of the rare situations when govt money is probably called for....unlike the damn 2nd and 3rd stimulus checks that have sent/are sending out.
Posted on 2/15/21 at 11:35 am to mmcgrath
quote:
I am also willing to bet that some energy execs instituted some "cost saving" measures anticipating low demand and they can't just ramp things back up that fast.
you are a little bit warm here
Texas designed its energy service sector off of a pure market model. Supply and Demand, they intentionally allow prices to spike to entice suppliers to build.
Wind and Solar are being built but they are subsidized, and that actually lowers the market price and is a disincentive to the building of traditional generation. A power grid cannot live on renewable alone. Texas is finding out now. California found out last summer.
You need a robust amount of traditional thermal units in the portfolio. Coal is being taken out. Gas is there but in extreme cold, it starts to have its own problems.
If you really want to have grid reliability and reduce carbon, then do a Green Nuclear Deal, not a Green New Deal.
Posted on 2/15/21 at 11:37 am to mmcgrath
quote:
It has to do with how innefficiently Texas heats its homes and businesses. The power demand is spiking above the hottest days in summer.
So, you want them to run oil, wood or gas for heat?
This post was edited on 2/15/21 at 11:39 am
Posted on 2/15/21 at 11:39 am to tigerfan0082
quote:
I’m in Pearland/Friendswood area, no blackout here as of now.
I’m in KC, so far no issues with any utilities. Currently it’s 0 degrees with a wind chill of minus 20-30
Posted on 2/15/21 at 11:39 am to TrueTiger
quote:
then do a Green Nuclear Deal
If progressive Democrats weren't so idiotic this is what they would be shooting for.....they would get some bi-partisan support as well....and they could still line their own pockets...potentially to a greater degree.
ETA And you would get a lot closer to carbon neutral a lot sooner than you would backing unicorn piss and fairy dust...I mean solar and wind.
This post was edited on 2/15/21 at 11:41 am
Posted on 2/15/21 at 11:40 am to TrueTiger
quote:Yep. Market pricing kept a lot of solar off the TX grid. More subsidies is allowing it to creep in. Subsidizing deficient products... is never a winning strategy in market.
Wind and Solar are being built but they are subsidized, and that actually lowers the market price and is a disincentive to the building of traditional generation. A power grid cannot live on renewable alone. Texas is finding out now. California found out last summer.
The “expert” on Texas power that lives in NJ has no idea that ERCOTs largest problem is being over-powered most of the time, so it’s optimized around that rather than peak intermittent loading. But yeah, all solveable with some R19 in the attic
This post was edited on 2/15/21 at 11:45 am
Posted on 2/15/21 at 11:48 am to mmcgrath
quote:
Amazing how we can run Wind Turbines off of Atlantic City but they shut down in cold weather in Texas
quote:
I am also willing to bet that some energy execs instituted some "cost saving" measures anticipating low demand and they can't just ramp things back up that fast.
Found the moron. Define these cost savings that are allegedly the cause here.
When you design equipment, you design it for certain ambient conditions. This event is an anomaly. A reasonable design set up is based on history in the area. Equipment is not designed for weather anomalies.
An intelligent person would look at AC wind turbines and think, hey, it's consistently cooler up there so the wind turbines are better designed to handle colder ambient temperatures.
Posted on 2/15/21 at 12:38 pm to hollowpoint
For those wondering about the Texas power situation...there may more to the story than what you might hear about from some:
quote:
Confidential info from a market participant in ERCOT: As of ~10 AM Eastern time, the system has ~30 GW of capacity offline, ~26 GW of thermal -- mostly natural gas which cant get fuel deliveries which are being priorities for heating loads -- and ~4 GW of wind due to icing.
That is a HUGE amount of gas capacity offline, about 30% of total ERCOT capacity and ~half of the natural gas fleet, according to Dec 2020 Capacity Demand and Reserves report.
Thread:
https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1361348544154664961
quote:
Confidential info from a market participant in ERCOT: As of ~10 AM Eastern time, the system has ~30 GW of capacity offline, ~26 GW of thermal -- mostly natural gas which cant get fuel deliveries which are being priorities for heating loads -- and ~4 GW of wind due to icing.
That is a HUGE amount of gas capacity offline, about 30% of total ERCOT capacity and ~half of the natural gas fleet, according to Dec 2020 Capacity Demand and Reserves report.
Thread:
https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1361348544154664961
Posted on 2/15/21 at 12:47 pm to Ailsa
quote:
~30 GW of capacity offline, ~26 GW of thermal -- mostly natural gas which cant get fuel deliveries which are being priorities for heating loads -- and ~4 GW of wind due to icing.
But but wind and solar are the problem
This is a shite show and has not a single fricking thing to do with wind turbines icing, solar having snow on it, Etc.
Posted on 2/15/21 at 12:50 pm to CorchJay
Based on what I have heard it seems they are turning off power to mostly residential areas that are less affluent. I live near large businesses in an affluent area in Frisco (suburb of DFW) and haven't experienced a power outage for any duration yet. I can only imagine people are going to figure this out and be livid. It does call into question how they are deciding power access priority.
Posted on 2/15/21 at 12:50 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:
Yep. Market pricing kept a lot of solar off the TX grid. More subsidies is allowing it to creep in. Subsidizing deficient products... is never a winning strategy in market.
Which subsides are these? The ITC has decreased. TX has minimal, if any local utility scale solar subsidies.
Posted on 2/15/21 at 12:52 pm to billjamin
quote:
But but wind and solar are the problem
This is a shite show and has not a single fricking thing to do with wind turbines icing, solar having snow on it, Etc.
No, what people are saying is they aren't really the answer as much of the wind generation is down. Now imagine where all there is... wind/solar and it has to somehow be stored in batteries (which don't exist) and do horrible in cold.
Nothing wrong with solar/wind, well, as long as you want to pay a lot more for energy.... it will never scale at mass in this country at current electric costs. (or unlikely in my lifetime)
Its not a real alternative on massive scale.
This post was edited on 2/15/21 at 12:56 pm
Posted on 2/15/21 at 12:52 pm to billjamin
quote:
But but wind and solar are the problem
This is a shite show and has not a single fricking thing to do with wind turbines icing, solar having snow on it, Etc.
None of these threads mention the fact that wells across the region are frozen and shut in. The gas isn’t flowing and storage extraction appears to be inefficient (or suffering from frozen infra).
Posted on 2/15/21 at 12:55 pm to cwill
quote:
None of these threads mention the fact that wells across the region are frozen and shut in. The gas isn’t flowing and storage extraction appears to be inefficient (or suffering from frozen infra).
Exactly. NGT with minimal supply or reduced line pressure and units that were down for scheduled maintenance are the biggest contributor.
Posted on 2/15/21 at 12:56 pm to CorchJay
The democrats are fricking idiotic!
They cancelled school here in Kansas tomorrow. You might think it is because the temperature is -11 and the snow is coming down like crazy again, but no, that is not the reason. The reason is the massive increase in energy prices thanks to the morons and their brain dead puppet signing all of the shite they put in front of him. in just a matter of weeks, they have completely fricked us all. Just amazing!
They cancelled school here in Kansas tomorrow. You might think it is because the temperature is -11 and the snow is coming down like crazy again, but no, that is not the reason. The reason is the massive increase in energy prices thanks to the morons and their brain dead puppet signing all of the shite they put in front of him. in just a matter of weeks, they have completely fricked us all. Just amazing!
This post was edited on 2/15/21 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 2/15/21 at 12:56 pm to GeauxFightingTigers1
quote:
No, what people are saying is they aren't really the answer as much of the wind generation is down. Now imagine where all there is... wind/solar and it has to somehow be stored in batteries (which don't exist) and do horrible in cold. Nothing wrong with solar/wind, well, as long as you want to pay a lot more for energy.... it will never scale at mass in this country at current electric costs.
If we apply that same logic then gas turbines, which are responsible for the majority of the generation shortfall, are also not the answer.
Posted on 2/15/21 at 12:57 pm to billjamin
quote:Only if you're a one-dimensional simplton that has no idea how the grid acutally works, or why NG deliveries are lacking.
This is a shite show and has not a single fricking thing to do with wind turbines icing, solar having snow on it, Etc.
Posted on 2/15/21 at 12:59 pm to billjamin
quote:Go have a look at APL if you need an example.
Which subsides are these?
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