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re: Tariff Time

Posted on 1/31/25 at 2:48 pm to
Posted by BugAC
St. George
Member since Oct 2007
57051 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 2:48 pm to
quote:

And Haiti isn't? We trade with them.

That's a ridiculous answer that's really just avoiding the issue of trading with one communist nation but not another.


Maybe Cuba trying to nuke America back in the 60s might have some residual consequences later down the line???
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
138911 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 2:49 pm to
This is what I expect to happen:

1. Mexico and Canada will do what is right and make a good faith effort at securing the border on their side and will begin to make fentanyl related arrest. Tariffs will be removed.

2. China 10% tariff will remain. In response the People's Bank of China will respond by printing the Chinese Yuan. In relative terms this will make the U.S. dollar stronger.
Posted by DrrTiger
Gulf of America
Member since Nov 2023
2386 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 2:50 pm to
quote:

Ironic that you're going to a store that gets most of it's non food products from ... CHI-NA.


Ironic how?
Posted by Seldom Seen
Member since Feb 2016
48737 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 2:53 pm to
quote:

2. China 10% tariff will remain. In response the People's Bank of China will respond by printing the Chinese Yuan. In relative terms this will make the U.S. dollar stronger.




The 10% he's talking about is an additional tariff. The current tariff on China is 25% which is still in place from his first term in office.


Posted by Jax Teller
Member since Aug 2018
4525 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 2:53 pm to
quote:

The 10% he's talking about is an additional tariff. The current tariff on China is 25% which is still in place from his first term in office.


Came in here to post this, but wanted to see if someone else hit it.
10% Covid and Fentanyl additional tax.

This post was edited on 1/31/25 at 2:55 pm
Posted by frogtown
Member since Aug 2017
5799 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

Post the article. How does it relate to the current situation?



No articles. Your homework is Rothbard, Von Mises, Friedman, Hoppe and I will add even Milei on tariffs. Read up. Then we can discuss.
Posted by LemmyLives
Texas
Member since Mar 2019
13733 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

Ironic how?


I was using comedic shorthand to get to the bad CHI-NA joke, Doctor Dictionary. I don't tend to get overly pedantic here. You should have been more upset I didn't use CHY-NA, which is probably closer to Trump's pronunciation.
Posted by Harry Boutte
Louisiana
Member since Oct 2024
3802 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 2:58 pm to
quote:

That’s because they are a member of the carribean trade act. Perhaps you shouldn’t be calling anyone else’s post ridiculous when you’re posting from a place of complete ignorance.



Nice cop out.

Why don't we include Cuba in the Caribbean Basin Initiative?
Posted by BugAC
St. George
Member since Oct 2007
57051 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 2:58 pm to
quote:

Here is what the US imports by sector.




So what product are we talking about then, specifically? And what is the trade breakdown by country of that product?

I'm not trying to be difficult, and i'm sure it's not easy to find on the internet.

Point being, is that there are other trade partners, and we also produce domestically.

The only specific product i can think of that prices may go up, is avocados.

LINK

quote:

Mexico: US$2.8 billion (39% of total avocados exports)
Netherlands: $1.1 billion (14.9%)
Peru: $963.4 million (13.2%)
Spain: $413.9 million (5.7%)
Israel: $260.8 million (3.6%)
Chile: $244.7 million (3.4%)
Colombia: $200.9 million (2.8%)
Morocco: $152.7 million (2.1%)
South Africa: $144.6 million (2%)
Kenya: $141.8 million (1.9%)
United States: $128.4 million (1.8%)
France: $99.5 million (1.4%)
Dominican Republic: $97.2 million (1.3%)
Germany: $62.2 million (0.9%)
Australia: $53.8 million (0.7%)


quote:

Avocado production in the United States, however, is not following the same pace as increasing consumption. Figure 2 shows that, back in the 80s, the total supply of avocados in the United States was almost entirely covered by domestic production. However, since the early 1990s, the total supply of avocados in the United States has been increasingly dependent on imports, reaching a dependence share of 90% during the last decade.


quote:


Before the 1990s, Americans primarily consumed avocados during the summer when California’s harvest was available. They supplemented their avocado consumption with imports, primarily from Chile, during the rest of the year. However, the introduction of avocados from Michoacan, Mexico, led to the availability of high-quality avocados throughout the year, transforming consumption habits.


So, yes, in this specific case, Avocado prices could go up. However, if price increases reduce demand, then the prices of avocados will also decrease. Therefore, the increase will only be temporary.

If (not likely) Mexico decides not to acquiesce to US demands, then consumer habits may go back to what they were in the 80s. US production, i'm sure, will increase, but also, consumers will eat less and restrict their consumption to the summer. And supplement our supply with other competitors.

Again, if sustained tariffs are in effect, prices for specific commodities MAY INCREASE TEMPORARILY, but long term WILL decline especially when America is the largest consumer of that country's exports.

ETA: Also, if American consumption declined over Mexico's increased cost of avocados, there is literally no other market for them to go to, to make up the loss of the American market. We are the LARGEST MARKET IN THE WORLD. Full stop. They need trade with us more than we need it. Mexico WILL CAVE. I guarantee you this with 100% certainty and they'll likely cave by Friday of next week.
This post was edited on 1/31/25 at 3:05 pm
Posted by troyt37
Member since Mar 2008
14681 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 2:58 pm to
Milton Friedman is no doubt brilliant, and I have sought his knowledge about many things. What Friedman has never had to deal with, however, is bad actor countries who use tariffs, to stifle American products and manufactured goods from coming into their countries.

If France charges an import tax of 25% on American wine, and the US only imposes a 10% import tax on French wine, it isn't hard to understand which industry will collapse first, is it? If the US matches the French import tax, then Americans are very likely to seek out American wine to drink, aren't they? It's really that simple.
Posted by BugAC
St. George
Member since Oct 2007
57051 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

Your homework is Rothbard, Von Mises, Friedman, Hoppe and I will add even Milei on tariffs.


Not how this works. You make a claim, you provide the evidence.

I asked you before, provide the links, and then explain to us how this relates to our current situation.

I already gave you an economics expert in a forbes article. It wasn't that hard. I'm sure you can do it.
Posted by BeepBopBoop
Northshore
Member since Dec 2023
1180 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 3:01 pm to
How does the lack of tariff reciprocity help the American worker?
Posted by BugAC
St. George
Member since Oct 2007
57051 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 3:02 pm to
quote:

Milton Friedman is no doubt brilliant, and I have sought his knowledge about many things. What Friedman has never had to deal with, however, is bad actor countries who use tariffs, to stifle American products and manufactured goods from coming into their countries.





My point exactly.

Posted by BBONDS25
Member since Mar 2008
57332 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 3:03 pm to
quote:

Nice cop out. Why don't we include Cuba in the Caribbean Basin Initiative?

Do you not understand how trade acts are created? Good Lord. Your ignorance knows no bounds.
This post was edited on 1/31/25 at 3:04 pm
Posted by Harry Boutte
Louisiana
Member since Oct 2024
3802 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 3:04 pm to
quote:

Maybe Cuba trying to nuke America back in the 60s...

They didn't.

But now that you mention it, how many American soldiers did the ChiComs actually kill in Korea in the early 50s?
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
62653 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 3:05 pm to
quote:

Pick a product. The one getting tariffs, is the loser.

Let's look at Columbia and the claims of "enjoy your higher priced coffee." And we can do this with any product, but let's start with this one.

1) Is Columbia the only supplier of coffee to the United States? No.
2) Is Columbia the biggest supplier of coffee in the US? No. Brazil is largest.
If the price of colombian coffee goes up by 25%, why wouldn’t Brazil increase their price too?
Posted by GRTiger
On a roof eating alligator pie
Member since Dec 2008
69175 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 3:05 pm to
quote:

the American worker?


The people opposed to the tariffs are more concerned about the American consumer. Likely for the obvious reasons.
Posted by DrrTiger
Gulf of America
Member since Nov 2023
2386 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 3:06 pm to
quote:

And Haiti isn't? We trade with them.


I don’t seem to remember the Haitian missile crisis being a thing. Maybe that’s why.
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
62653 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 3:06 pm to
1
quote:

) Spurs domestic production.
2) Spurs competition from non-tariff'd countries within the respective markets.
Why didn’t they work for solar panels which have been heavily tariffed since 2018?
Posted by BugAC
St. George
Member since Oct 2007
57051 posts
Posted on 1/31/25 at 3:07 pm to
quote:

They didn't.


They were a proxy of the Soviet Union, and we were very close to nukes being launched. This isn't even up for debate. It's facts.

quote:

how many American soldiers did the ChiComs actually kill in Korea in the early 50s?


I do not know. I'm not arguing for or against trade with Cuba. Just giving you a possible reason as to why we do not trade with them currently. I've seen arguments for and against, and most of the against is because of their past.
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