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re: study shows welfare prevents crime, quite dramatically

Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:06 pm to
Posted by 4cubbies
Member since Sep 2008
61110 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:06 pm to
quote:

Study shows that if you give someone welfare their entire lives, they're more likely to commit crimes when you stop"


Your use Of “their entire lives” is disingenuous. Children who received benefits stopped receiving benefits at 18. It’s not like they received welfare benefits for 40 years then stopped. Children under 16 aren’t legally able to work, anyway.
Posted by Riverside
Member since Jul 2022
10484 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:07 pm to
quote:

Children under 16 aren’t legally able to work, anyway.


That’s false.
Posted by 4cubbies
Member since Sep 2008
61110 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:08 pm to
Sure. Let’s pick every exception and anomaly and pretend that’s the norm. Babies can legally work
Posted by Billions
Member since Oct 2023
270 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:09 pm to
quote:


Your use Of “their entire lives” is disingenuous.
Um.........if you are born on welfare and at age 18, you're still on welfare, that's your ENTIRE LIFE unless you've come some special fricking calendar dimwit.
quote:

Children under 16 aren’t legally able to work, anyway.
Well, that's only true of standard jobs. I mean, ya know, normal people under 16 can, and often DO do things to earn $$ from grass cutting to babysitting etc.

Regardless, a study absent the features I mentioned isn't a study. It's just a document discovering the known.........and then framing it to target morons.......like you.
Posted by Billions
Member since Oct 2023
270 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:10 pm to
quote:

Sure. Let’s pick every exception and anomaly and pretend that’s the norm. Babies can legally work

You think people earning money before they're 16 is some kind of wild exception? What planet do you live on?
Posted by Hickok
Htown
Member since Jan 2013
2972 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:12 pm to
quote:

cash welfare has a much larger discouragement effect on criminal activity

So pay them cash or expect criminal behavior. That’s a ransom, not a solution.
Posted by 4cubbies
Member since Sep 2008
61110 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:13 pm to
quote:

Yeah, let's pay them not to rob and murder us.
what do you think food stamps are?
Posted by auggie
Opelika, Alabama
Member since Aug 2013
31516 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:14 pm to
quote:

Children under 16 aren’t legally able to work, anyway.

And if they grew up on welfare, they are never taught that they should, or given a good example by their parents.
Posted by Riverside
Member since Jul 2022
10484 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:15 pm to
Promoting work, teaching people how to work and hold a job, prevents crime. Welfare destroys people’s dignity and self-respect. It’s not compassionate to rob people of their self-worth through handouts.
Posted by Robin Masters
Birmingham
Member since Jul 2010
35863 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:15 pm to
Anyone with a brain could figure out the only reason rich, white dems vote for welfare is to keep poor colored people out of their gated communities.
Posted by POTUS2024
Member since Nov 2022
20943 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:15 pm to
quote:

study shows welfare prevents crime, quite dramatically


I don't believe any of this:
1) Because you are not objective and carry a bias with everything you post here so there is suspicion already.

2) It's from academia, whose reputation has gotten worse and worse recently.

3) Research misconduct is a serious problem.

4) Academia is hard left and this supports a hard left narrative. What a shocking surprise. Hey the economists say give people free money and everything will get better. Forget all of human history, just trust the 'science'.

5) One of the authors is a male with a hyphenated name. Big red flag. Feels like we've seen this movie before. Contact author is at U of Chicago. Yeah, we've seen this movie before.

6) What is particularly alarming is that they think they can pin 20years of effects to a single event of this type, with so many things that can intervene to the left and right of "welfare change" in a person's life. I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts that the statistical analysis here is absolute garbage, and that peer review was a bit less than rigorous. I would be interested to see a causal diagram and find out why the authors thought they could ignore causal variables to the left of "welfare change", which is what this type of analysis must do, and these events affect incarceration and are independent of "age" which is the cause of the change in welfare. There is a 100% guarantee of bias here.

7) There are always red flags when people talk about likelihoods of events using percentages, indexed to something they don't outline and then fail to give real numbers like: the increase in incarceration rose X%, meaning in the study cohort we saw 12 out of every 1000 people being incarcerated, and after event Y we observed 15 out of every 1000. When you just give percentages, that is generally meaningless. Also, they say the number of criminal charges increased, not the number of people that faced charges. That could be very meaningful.

Every time I see a study like this, I discount it entirely. These fields of research, and the hard left leaning of academia make all of this work suspicious.

Here's an interesting snippet:
The researchers found that the impact of the change was heterogeneous. While some people removed from the income support program at age 18 responded by working more in the formal labor market, a much larger fraction responded by engaging in crime to replace the lost income. In response to losing benefits, youth were twice as likely to be charged with an illicit income-generating offense than they were to maintain steady employment.

A differential response like this is predictable from the outset - where is the planned secondary analysis to probe this observation? Something tells me that such an analysis was intentionally not done and I may be wrong, but something else tells me that if you wanted to do this analysis, you would have a hard time getting the raw data from the research team.

This is garbage.
Posted by RobbBobb
Member since Feb 2007
34131 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:18 pm to
Is that the same research group that stated the vaccine prevented covid?
Posted by auggie
Opelika, Alabama
Member since Aug 2013
31516 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:19 pm to
quote:

what do you think food stamps are?

I don't know, you'll have to tell me. I have to work for the food that my family eats, along with my taxes going to pay for the ones out there who refuse to work for a living.
I say frick'em, let them starve and get desperate, then FAFO. The social experiment has gone far enough.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
128713 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:21 pm to
quote:

So if you take away free (to them) money from ne’er-do-wells they’ll turn to criminal activity instead of getting an actual productive to society job.


The study acts like the kids were getting this money before they turned 18.
Posted by LSUconvert
Hattiesburg, MS
Member since Aug 2007
6622 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:24 pm to
quote:

along with my taxes going to pay for the ones out there who refuse to work for a living.



It's crazy you feel comfortable talking about the military like this.
Posted by 4cubbies
Member since Sep 2008
61110 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:27 pm to
quote:

don't know, you'll have to tell me
you don’t have to receive food stamps to understand their purpose, friend.
Posted by Errerrerrwere
Member since Aug 2015
44412 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:27 pm to
At this point, I'm going to assume you get piss drunk every night because you wish you majored in a STEM degree.
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
79820 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:28 pm to
quote:

quote:
along with my taxes going to pay for the ones out there who refuse to work for a living.




It's crazy you feel comfortable talking about the military like this
Military members don't work?
Posted by LSUconvert
Hattiesburg, MS
Member since Aug 2007
6622 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:28 pm to
quote:

Military members don't work?


According to who I replied to apparently not.
Posted by auggie
Opelika, Alabama
Member since Aug 2013
31516 posts
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:31 pm to
quote:

It's crazy you feel comfortable talking about the military like this.

Having a military is a necessity for a country to survive. Having too many parasitic welfare leaches will lead to death.
I'm sure you think it's all the same though.
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