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re: State's coronavirus death toll drops significantly after officials make criteria change

Posted on 5/16/20 at 4:49 pm to
Posted by honeybadger07
The Woodlands
Member since Jul 2015
4276 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 4:49 pm to
PAGING ANTONIO MOSS!!!! He swore to us good folks that these death numbers were accurate...if anything they were likely under reported....ANTONIO MOSS please set this man straight with your "cold hard facts"
Posted by ShortyRob
Member since Oct 2008
82116 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 4:57 pm to
quote:

That’s fair. People dying from obviously unrelated things like overdoses shouldn’t be in the count

They shouldn't.

And frankly, there needs to be SOME method for accounting for "dude who was likely going to be dead inside of 6 months, gets COVID, dies this month".

I personally know of two people who fit this description.
Posted by longwayfromLA
NYC
Member since Nov 2007
3331 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 5:12 pm to
quote:

And frankly, there needs to be SOME method for accounting for "dude who was likely going to be dead inside of 6 months, gets COVID, dies this month".


Here's a study that takes a crack at it. There will be many more to come.

LINK

quote:

RESEARCH ARTICLE
COVID-19 – exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study



quote:

Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
128844 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 5:28 pm to
That fits with my back of napkin calculations of $100B-$200B in total actuarial calculations for 100,000 deaths at $130,000 per YLL.
Posted by WildManGoose
Member since Nov 2005
4607 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 5:39 pm to
Many on this board said there was no way states were doing that. And Dr. Birx clearly didn't mean it when she said specifically that that's what was being done. Are any of you guys in this thread? Antonio Moss might have been one of them. He's serious business in the hospital admin world.
Posted by SadSouthernBuck
Las Vegas
Member since Dec 2007
748 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 6:55 pm to
And yet there was an article in the WSJ today that the latest available US death toll is 30% above average.

WSJ (Pay Wall)

quote:

In mid-April, 30% more Americans died than was typical in the same period in previous years, a Wall Street Journal examination of federal death-certificate data shows
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
139033 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 7:05 pm to
quote:

blood alcohol content of .55 at the time
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
115470 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 7:15 pm to
quote:

They don't do this with the flu. If a person goes in to hospice for cancer and the flu puts them over the edge, the death certificate says cancer


You mean they're lying?

Shocker
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
128844 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 7:25 pm to
quote:

In mid-April, 30% more Americans died than was typical in the same period in previous years, a Wall Street Journal examination of federal death-certificate data shows


Are they saying that from January to mid-April, there were 30% more deaths, YOY?
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
65876 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 7:29 pm to
Wow. I am totally shocked.
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49413 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 7:30 pm to
quote:

State officials are now distinguishing between people who died "with COVID-19" and those who died "due to COVID-19." Previously, officials lumped all the deaths together, meaning people who had COVID-19, yet did not die directly from the virus, were included in the state's official death count.

The change resulted in nearly 300 fewer COVID-19 deaths in Colorado, KDVR-TV reported.

On Friday afternoon, the Colorado Department of Health reported 1,150 COVID-19 deaths. But after the change, that count dropped to 878.



It's only how officials are reporting the numbers to the public. It has nothing to do with how medical facilities are reporting. The CDC death tally for Colorado remains unchanged:

CDC was already reporting Colorado COVID deaths at 878

Journalists and politicians are shitty but that doesn't mean doctors are committing fraud nationwide.
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
22765 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 7:45 pm to
quote:

It's only how officials are reporting the numbers to the public. It has nothing to do with how medical facilities are reporting. The CDC death tally for Colorado remains unchanged:

CDC was already reporting Colorado COVID deaths at 878

Journalists and politicians are shitty but that doesn't mean doctors are committing fraud nationwide.


So you're saying that the CDC is reporting there are 60K US COVID deaths?

I thought the number was north of 85K now?
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49413 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 7:54 pm to
quote:

So you're saying that the CDC is reporting there are 60K US COVID deaths?

I thought the number was north of 85K now?


The CDC is an official number but there is a delay - admitted by the CDC because they verify all death certificates from the various State Depts of Health. So the actual number is some number North of the 60K cited by the CDC but won't be known for awhile.

This is the same reason for a lot of the "reduced heart attacks, strokes, etc." because the CDC doesn't report in real time. The typical final number isn't usually known for a few months.

The 85K number is the number used by media outlets that get state figures from various state agencies in real time.
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
22765 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 8:21 pm to
quote:

The 85K number is the number used by media outlets that get state figures from various state agencies in real time.


So this is the number that's inflated, which is the one the public sees/cites most.

By the way, the CDC reports the 1,150 figure for Colorado in a number of reports and graphs. But they seem to be all over the map about what's going on.
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49413 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 8:23 pm to
quote:

So this is the number that's inflated, which is the one the public sees/cites most.


Not necessarily inflated, just not entirely verified yet.

But I wouldn’t use it. American media is shite all around.
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
22765 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 8:28 pm to
quote:

Not necessarily inflated, just not entirely verified yet


Unless Colorado is some wild anomaly, it's inflated - right? Colorado just lowered its COVID death count by 25% because there was a backlash against the fraudulent way COVID deaths were being counted.
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49413 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 8:35 pm to
quote:

Unless Colorado is some wild anomaly, it's inflated - right? Colorado just lowered its COVID death count by 25% because there was a backlash against the fraudulent way COVID deaths were being counted.


I’m going to wait for someone other than The Blaze to report on it. It’s a notoriously shite media outlet.

It could be inflated or it could be the Blaze misconstruing something about the Colorado reporting method.

For instance, we don’t know which the number the various outlets are pulling for Colorado - or of they are even all the same.

The only real number is the CDC - and like I said - it’s delayed.
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
22765 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 8:43 pm to
quote:

The only real number is the CDC - and like I said - it’s delayed.


Why is the CDC reporting the inflated number in places? It's confusing in the very least. You can find the 1,150 Colorado deaths in reports.

quote:

I’m going to wait for someone other than The Blaze to report on it. It’s a notoriously shite media outlet.

It could be inflated or it could be the Blaze misconstruing something about the Colorado reporting method.


It's in the Denver Post. Colorado did change the way it was reporting COVID deaths and the story is consistent with the Blaze report.
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 8:49 pm to
quote:

The CDC is an official number but there is a delay - admitted by the CDC because they verify all death certificates from the various State Depts of Health. So the actual number is some number North of the 60K cited by the CDC but won't be known for awhile
it is neither "official" nor "actual." it's just a number that is being questioned by experts.
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 5/16/20 at 8:50 pm to
quote:

Not necessarily inflated
birx is reported to have said inflated by as much as 25%
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