- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Some Data Points Around the Argument that Vaccination Reduces Acuity of Infection
Posted on 9/22/21 at 9:51 am
Posted on 9/22/21 at 9:51 am
Massachusetts has an interesting data set.
COVID-19 Cases in Fully Vaccinated Individuals
LINK
It will likely be removed in the coming months.
In the past week, 4,568 cases of breakthrough Covid have been documented in the state. That brings the number of breakthrough cases to 32,345.
Of those, 1,001 have resulted in hospitalizations. That’s a rate of hospitalization of 3.1%. Hospitalization pre-vaccine available hovered around 4.4% for those infected.
If those numbers are correct, it’s around 30% effective at reducing hospitalization once infection occurs.
There have now been 217 deaths among those 32,345 cases. That’s a mortality rate of 0.67%. The CDC estimates of mortality have hovered around 0.7%. Fair play: There is some difficulty comparing modeled numbers to “real-life data.”
COVID-19 Cases in Fully Vaccinated Individuals
LINK
It will likely be removed in the coming months.
In the past week, 4,568 cases of breakthrough Covid have been documented in the state. That brings the number of breakthrough cases to 32,345.
Of those, 1,001 have resulted in hospitalizations. That’s a rate of hospitalization of 3.1%. Hospitalization pre-vaccine available hovered around 4.4% for those infected.
If those numbers are correct, it’s around 30% effective at reducing hospitalization once infection occurs.
There have now been 217 deaths among those 32,345 cases. That’s a mortality rate of 0.67%. The CDC estimates of mortality have hovered around 0.7%. Fair play: There is some difficulty comparing modeled numbers to “real-life data.”
17
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:01 am to the808bass
I think another item that they leave out that would be interesting to see is a breakdown by age group. These numbers are very general and it seems a bit premature to draw any viable conclusion from the data presented.
Are the vaccines improving survivability in the most at-risk groups? Decreasing hospitalizations in the most at-risk groups? Is mortality and hospitalization staying the same? If mortality and hospitalization is remaining constant, it seems feasible to conclude the currents benefits of the vaccine are mostly negligible.
I would say my biggest frustration with the situation surrounding vaccines is the way we are collecting and disseminating useful information. Information that should be used to make sound policy decisions. Regardless of anyone's political affiliation, I believe the CDC and NIH have been abysmal in terms of providing accurate data and guidance.
Are the vaccines improving survivability in the most at-risk groups? Decreasing hospitalizations in the most at-risk groups? Is mortality and hospitalization staying the same? If mortality and hospitalization is remaining constant, it seems feasible to conclude the currents benefits of the vaccine are mostly negligible.
I would say my biggest frustration with the situation surrounding vaccines is the way we are collecting and disseminating useful information. Information that should be used to make sound policy decisions. Regardless of anyone's political affiliation, I believe the CDC and NIH have been abysmal in terms of providing accurate data and guidance.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:04 am to the808bass
We could take the number of fully vaxed in state against the breakthroughs and see how well the vax does it’s intended job.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:07 am to the808bass
Also hard to correlate when people in car wrecks that had Covid were counted as Covid deaths last year and now aren't.
I spoke with my doctor today and he said Pfizer vaccine was weak and only provided minimal help 6 months later. Your numbers show the same thing. It may help some but isn't the panacea the Biden Administration is trying to sell.
Most effective things: stay outside when in a crowd, six feet apart when inside, masks are ineffective and vaccine is becoming so with time.
800,000 people a year die from cardiovascular disease. Keep it in context.
I spoke with my doctor today and he said Pfizer vaccine was weak and only provided minimal help 6 months later. Your numbers show the same thing. It may help some but isn't the panacea the Biden Administration is trying to sell.
Most effective things: stay outside when in a crowd, six feet apart when inside, masks are ineffective and vaccine is becoming so with time.
800,000 people a year die from cardiovascular disease. Keep it in context.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:11 am to the808bass
quote:
There have now been 217 deaths among those 32,345 cases. That’s a mortality rate of 0.67%. The CDC estimates of mortality have hovered around 0.7%. Fair play: There is some difficulty comparing modeled numbers to “real-life data.”
I'd be curious as well how vaxed deaths are being counted. Are they being counted as covid with the same loosie goosie definition as they have been doing for the past 18 months? Or are the ones dying "with" actually coded as "motorcycle accident" if they are vaxed?
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:28 am to the808bass
quote:
There have now been 217 deaths among those 32,345 cases. That’s a mortality rate of 0.67%. The CDC estimates of mortality have hovered around 0.7%. Fair play: There is some difficulty comparing modeled numbers to “real-life data.”
The big issue would be age. Older people are much more likely to be vaccinated but also more likely to die from COVID if they do have a breakthrough case. So this leads to a comparison of an older vaccinated group to a younger unvaccinated group.
It would also be nice if they put the comparable numbers for the unvaccinated in that report. That should have been easy to do. And I guess if you just wanted to back out the vaccinated numbers from total numbers that might work.
And hopefully we get to a place where we can include prior COVID infected as it's own group. Hospitals and health agencies need a way to track that.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:31 am to the808bass
Some context that is missing here is that the people who have breakthrough infections might be more likely to have some immune challenges. The same factors that caused them to have breakthrough infections may also cause their prognosis to be poor once infected.
Look at hospitalized vaccinated people. They actually have a higher death rate (as someone pointed out here yesterday) than unvaccinated hospitalized people. One could naively conclude that the vaccine is actually the cause of their higher death rate. A far more probable reason is that we are selecting a small subset of vaccinated people who had immune deficiencies that allowed them to have severe breakthrough infections.
To better understand this data, we would have to compare the age and initial health among the two groups.
Look at hospitalized vaccinated people. They actually have a higher death rate (as someone pointed out here yesterday) than unvaccinated hospitalized people. One could naively conclude that the vaccine is actually the cause of their higher death rate. A far more probable reason is that we are selecting a small subset of vaccinated people who had immune deficiencies that allowed them to have severe breakthrough infections.
To better understand this data, we would have to compare the age and initial health among the two groups.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:31 am to the808bass
quote:Indeed. At a high level those numbers look... terrible for the vaccine.
Fair play: There is some difficulty comparing modeled numbers to “real-life data.”
Given COVID's biases for the old and fat, I'd like to see the age and weight of the vaccinated population and breakthrough cases.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:35 am to ChapelHillSooner
quote:
Some context that is missing here is that the people who have breakthrough infections might be more likely to have some immune challenges.
Lol
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:37 am to BigJim
quote:
Older people are much more likely to be vaccinated but also more likely to die from COVID if they do have a breakthrough case. So this leads to a comparison of an older vaccinated group to a younger unvaccinated group.
Correct. But Massachusetts has a relatively high percentage of vaccinated people. So it should smooth out that difference to some extent.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:41 am to Vacherie Saint
quote:
We could take the number of fully vaxed in state against the breakthroughs and see how well the vax does it’s intended job.
What's it's intended job? I think the only accurate stats we would have would be does it prevent death? Still there we wouldn't have accurate stats of died with covid vs died of covid.
If it's intended job is to prevent cases, or spread of the virus, then we don't have an accurate count of breakthrough cases.
If it's intended job is to prevent hospitalizations, then we have to see if hospitals are using the same protocol for vaccinated as unvaccinated. If 2 people go to the hospital with gun shot wounds, one is vaccinated, the other isn't, do both get tested for covid, just the unvaccinated, or neither?
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:43 am to Southof10Tiger
quote:
I think another item that they leave out that would be interesting to see is a breakdown by age group. These numbers are very general and it seems a bit premature to draw any viable conclusion from the data presented.
Are the vaccines improving survivability in the most at-risk groups? Decreasing hospitalizations in the most at-risk groups? Is mortality and hospitalization staying the same? If mortality and hospitalization is remaining constant, it seems feasible to conclude the currents benefits of the vaccine are mostly negligible.
I would say my biggest frustration with the situation surrounding vaccines is the way we are collecting and disseminating useful information. Information that should be used to make sound policy decisions. Regardless of anyone's political affiliation, I believe the CDC and NIH have been abysmal in terms of providing accurate data and guidance.
I would say the most important question is are vaccines decreasing infections and hospitalizations of the moderately at-risk group.
If so, we have an apples and oranges comparison.
For the vaccinated population, we are only selecting the subset that is at highest risk. For the unvaccinated population, we are selecting a subset who is either at high risk or at moderate risk.
I was talking to my sister-in-law who was in charge of her city's COVID response. For their city, the hospitalizations and deaths among vaccinated were almost exclusively old morbidly obese people. For the unvaccinated population, it is a much wider range.
Therefore, any statistical analysis has to take these very different populations into account.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:46 am to ChapelHillSooner
quote:You could say something similar about the unvaccinated who are hospitalized or dying from COVID. The vast, vast majority of people who contract COVID are not at severe risk for hospitalization or death. It seems to be a virus taking its toll on the overweight and elderly, primarily.
Some context that is missing here is that the people who have breakthrough infections might be more likely to have some immune challenges. The same factors that caused them to have breakthrough infections may also cause their prognosis to be poor once infected.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:46 am to ChapelHillSooner
quote:
I was talking to my sister-in-law who was in charge of her city's COVID response. For their city, the hospitalizations and deaths among vaccinated were almost exclusively old morbidly obese people. For the unvaccinated population, it is a much wider range.
Sounds like some solid data.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:46 am to FooManChoo
quote:
You could say something similar about the unvaccinated who are hospitalized or dying from COVID.
That’s the funny part.
“The vaccine works unless it doesn’t.”
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:48 am to the808bass
quote:
Lol
Nice point. You should submit that to medical journals.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:50 am to ChapelHillSooner
You typed out a lot of words that basically said “if you’re not in good health, the vaccines don’t work as well.”
That was your point. It deserves an Lol.
That was your point. It deserves an Lol.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:53 am to Lynxrufus2012
quote:
800,000 people a year die from cardiovascular disease. Keep it in context.
Look at pictures of Americans in the 1950's and look at a general subset of humans at your local grocery store or local sporting event.
Keep human health in context, as well!
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:54 am to the808bass
quote:
You typed out a lot of words that basically said “if you’re not in good health, the vaccines don’t work as well.”
That was your point. It deserves an Lol.
I suppose a simpleton would think that that was my only point.
Others would understand that your derived stats are likely irrelevant because you failed to consider that the two populations that are being compared are likely far different in more ways than just vaccination status.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 10:58 am to ChapelHillSooner
quote:
Others would understand that your derived stats are likely irrelevant because you failed to consider that the two populations that are being compared are likely far different in more ways than just vaccination status.
As I pointed out earlier, that would be more relevant in a state with lower vaccination rates. Almost 70% of the state is fully vaccinated. If you take out under 18, that percentage jumps quite a bit.
Page 1 of 7
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News