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re: Sensing a little bit of unease from Nate Silver today
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:03 am to ValDawgsta
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:03 am to ValDawgsta
quote:
His election day model gave Trump a 30% chance to win in 2016. He was wrong,
We have no idea if he was wrong or not, because elections are discrete events. You need iterations to prove models like this and elections don't provide that; not for a long, long time.
1
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:03 am to Scruffy
Yeah. He has crawfished quite a bit. “If Hillary only got 2% more of the vote, she would’ve won with over 300 EVs!!”
Completely unimpressive.
Completely unimpressive.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:03 am to the808bass
quote:
Three weeks before the election, Nate had Trump’s chances at around 12%.
True, but four weeks before the election he had it almost as a coin flip.
I'm sure Silver is a leftie, but he's better than this board gives him credit for. His model has always been more realistic on Trump's chances than the other big models out there.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:04 am to tigerskin
It’s a game they play
Play to the narratives early, align the data late because things are getting “clearer” closer to Election Day
Since a huge section of Trump voters refuse to be polled, Nate Copper’s models are like analyzing a baseball game with the full lineup of one team and 5/9 of the other
Play to the narratives early, align the data late because things are getting “clearer” closer to Election Day
Since a huge section of Trump voters refuse to be polled, Nate Copper’s models are like analyzing a baseball game with the full lineup of one team and 5/9 of the other
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:05 am to ValDawgsta
I’m sure he will reward you for your service.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:06 am to Figgy
So has he ever explained how he fixed his shitty system this time around?
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:07 am to When in Rome
I don’t have a scientific method, but I’d guess that if Trump wins, the Senate stays R and at least a few seats get picked up in the House.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:08 am to the808bass
I agree. I think Trump + D house + R senate odds should be much higher than 7%.
This post was edited on 10/27/20 at 11:09 am
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:08 am to the808bass
quote:
I don’t have a scientific method, but I’d guess that if Trump wins, the Senate stays R and at least a few seats get picked up in the House.
Yeah
Then Durham indictments come out and the Dem party loses some familiar faces before swearing in in January
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:10 am to tigerskin
If Biden wins PA, I hope they realize they will be crippling their economy for themselves and the next generation. There are @ 600K jobs relying on the fracking and oil cuts Biden will make.
Wake up PA!
Wake up PA!
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:12 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
So has he ever explained how he fixed his shitty system this time around?
He doesn't have to.
As you can see by a cursory glance at this board, Nate counts on enough low IQ idiots continuing to fellate him so that he doesn't have to.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:14 am to Figgy
quote:
Why on earth, or how in the hell, is this guy relevant? Granted, he has a good gig. He gets to riff on whatever subject he knows nothing about. Claims that he has data to back up his assertions and gets paid to do it. Then he gets things wrong and is never punished but is instead further amplified.
because he exists on twitter and tells his followers what they want to hear
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:16 am to Figgy
This clown's only real clients are progs. If he didn't promote biden he would be slashing his own throat.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:16 am to the808bass
IF the POTUS hopefully wins, the senate will be a push. We pick up alabama and michigan and lose maine and colorado.
...and we might also lose arizona to go down to 52
we are 8 places short of regaining the house.
God forbid, if POTUS loses, the amounts of votes short of keeping the presidency will also cost us both houses as well...
...and we might also lose arizona to go down to 52
we are 8 places short of regaining the house.
God forbid, if POTUS loses, the amounts of votes short of keeping the presidency will also cost us both houses as well...
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:16 am to Oates Mustache
538/Nate Silver is not a pollster. the pollsters are the ones that required the most correcting, though 538 has said they've made adjustments to how the model reads the polls (bc of how off the polls were in 16)
This post was edited on 10/27/20 at 11:18 am
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:18 am to tigerskin
Silver has been relying on polls that are mathematically impossible and he now knows it. Expect him to walk them back by claiming the race "is tightening" until election day.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:18 am to nc_tiger
Nate Plastic will look like a dumbass again after this election, but claim his model is perfect but relies on polls that got it all wrong.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:18 am to Flats
this place doesn't understand how the field of statistics works.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:19 am to GeauxTrain
quote:And he rates some of them extremely high, like YouGov.
Silver has been relying on polls that are mathematically impossible
I understand that some people don’t like Trump, but to see people reporting 10-15% swings is insane.
quote:What I expect as well.
Expect him to walk them back by claiming the race "is tightening" until election day.
The guy is such a chode.
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