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Started By
Message
Sensing a little bit of unease from Nate Silver today
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:49 am
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:49 am
Of course not a drastic change from him yet, but the bravado is turned down a notch
“Actually Trump's odds (12%) are quite close to the chances of catching an inside straight (9%), low but still well within the realm of normal things you see in any poker session, and not the much less likely thing you are describing (0.3%).”
“Biden's ahead by 5.4 points in our PA polling average. But polls were off there by 4.4 points in 2016. So he's got a little bit of extra cushion, but not much. And a close result could go to the courts there.”
“Also got something else for you this morning: What if Biden loses Pennsylvania?“
“Actually Trump's odds (12%) are quite close to the chances of catching an inside straight (9%), low but still well within the realm of normal things you see in any poker session, and not the much less likely thing you are describing (0.3%).”
“Biden's ahead by 5.4 points in our PA polling average. But polls were off there by 4.4 points in 2016. So he's got a little bit of extra cushion, but not much. And a close result could go to the courts there.”
“Also got something else for you this morning: What if Biden loses Pennsylvania?“
20
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:50 am to tigerskin
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:51 am to tigerskin
what is the 12% thing? that's not what he's giving Trump to win reelection is it?
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:52 am to Choctaw
The lead article on his sight talks about how Biden still has a shot even if he loses PA.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:52 am to tigerskin
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:52 am to tigerskin
I don’t understand why this man is considered the end all be all of polling.
I want Nate to lose more than I want Trump to win.
I just want him to fall off whatever ivory tower he is sitting on.
I want Nate to lose more than I want Trump to win.
I just want him to fall off whatever ivory tower he is sitting on.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:52 am to tigerskin
quote:
“Also got something else for you this morning: What if Biden loses Pennsylvania?“
C.Y.A.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:52 am to Choctaw
Probably.
I think he gave Trump an 8% chance against Hillary.
I think he gave Trump an 8% chance against Hillary.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:54 am to tigerskin
This guy may have very good sports algorithms that have been validated by statistically large numbers of games, but elections aren't like that. I have no idea why anybody takes him so seriously.
My own highly sophisticated model looks at all the polling data, the weather, the tides and Kamala's cycle and I can tell you with absolute certainty that Joe Biden has a 60% chance of winning and Donald Trump has a 40% chance of winning. My model's accuracy will be validated when we finally elect a new president, I guarantee it.
My own highly sophisticated model looks at all the polling data, the weather, the tides and Kamala's cycle and I can tell you with absolute certainty that Joe Biden has a 60% chance of winning and Donald Trump has a 40% chance of winning. My model's accuracy will be validated when we finally elect a new president, I guarantee it.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:55 am to LuckyTiger
Rush was right! They are start to backtrack to save credibility in the face of a Trump victory.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:56 am to LuckyTiger
quote:
I think he gave Trump an 8% chance against Hillary.
His election day model gave Trump a 30% chance to win in 2016. He was wrong, but far more bullish on Trump than the other models.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:57 am to ValDawgsta
quote:
His election day model gave Trump a 30% chance to win in 2016
Underlined the key part. Now go back to the rest of his models for that election.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:58 am to tigerskin
This image never gets old.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:58 am to tigerskin
What an effin WEASEL!!!
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:59 am to ValDawgsta
29%
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:00 am to tigerskin
I see that he plays poker. I wonder if he ever made any backdoor flushes.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:00 am to tigerskin
quote:
“Actually Trump's odds (12%) are quite close to the chances of catching an inside straight (9%), low but still well within the realm of normal things you see in any poker session”
This is so transparent
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:02 am to the808bass
quote:I hate the use of probability in a one off situation.
29%
Nate Silver was wrong.
He wasn’t “less wrong” than everyone else.
He was wrong.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 11:03 am to tigerskin
Why on earth, or how in the hell, is this guy relevant? Granted, he has a good gig. He gets to riff on whatever subject he knows nothing about. Claims that he has data to back up his assertions and gets paid to do it. Then he gets things wrong and is never punished but is instead further amplified.
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