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Posted on 9/27/21 at 1:28 pm to 1BIGTigerFan
Fed will start tapering it’s balance sheet over the next few months which will increase bond supply. This will cause prevailing interest rates to increase which will then lead to a pullback of 5-10% over next 6 months.
An October crash is unlikely
An October crash is unlikely
Posted on 9/27/21 at 1:45 pm to 1BIGTigerFan
quote:
The fed owes 30 trillion now, plus many more trillions in unfunded liabilities. Some dims in congress have openly said there's no reason to pay this off and to just keep borrowing. The Russians and the Chinese have said they're divesting themselves of the dollar. More and more people are starting to see what's going on and more and more people are unwilling to buy government bonds. So, when the Fed has to buy their own notes, it's only a matter of time till the house of cards comes tumbling down.
This.
All of it.
Now let's dig a smidge deeper: From 1789-FY2000 the federal government generated ~$3.5T total in deficit spending. From FY2001-FY2021 (2021 is estimated but we're late enough in the year to consider it reasonably close) that number is $18.5T, or ~5.2x as much in just 20 years than what was generated in the previous 200+ years.
For around the last 15-20 years this has become more and more a matter of "when", not "if".
This is exacerbated by the extra COVID welfare payments (keeping people from seeking work) and the ridiculous commerce barriers of mandating masks and/or vaccines.
The problem is that tax revenues are still high enough that they can still service the debt. Once those go up to 25%-30% of revenues, the Dollar will be on its way to a massive crash as it becomes inevitable that the federal government will miss a payment (because they can't keep affording spending AND making debt payments).
This post was edited on 9/27/21 at 1:46 pm
Posted on 9/27/21 at 1:45 pm to GumboPot
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/16/22 at 3:15 pm
Posted on 9/27/21 at 1:45 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
Advising to hold cash during the highest levels of inflation we've seen in a generation. Smart
Posted on 9/27/21 at 1:52 pm to Bard
quote:100% When. But doubt it will be in October.
For around the last 15-20 years this has become more and more a matter of "when", not "if".
I've often said we're one failed treasury auction away from collapse. But Kiosaki is an idiot. I have no idea why anyone listens to him.
quote:We're already north of 10% of revenue. Every 1% rise in rates = about $230 Billion per year in borrowing costs. Now... anyone remember what rates looked like under Carter?
Once those go up to 25%-30% of revenues, the Dollar will be on its way to a massive crash as it becomes inevitable that the federal government will miss a payment (because they can't keep affording spending AND making debt payments).
This post was edited on 9/27/21 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 9/27/21 at 1:52 pm to Bard
quote:
the Dollar will be on its way to a massive crash as it becomes inevitable that the federal government will miss a payment (because they can't keep affording spending AND making debt payments).
So where should I park my money?
Real estate?
Another currency?
Posted on 9/27/21 at 1:53 pm to Bard
Dbl post 
This post was edited on 9/27/21 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 9/27/21 at 1:55 pm to retooc
quote:
So where should I park my money?
Ammo, livestock, land... not necessarily in that order...
Posted on 9/27/21 at 2:01 pm to retooc
quote:
So where should I park my money?
Other currencies, possibly. The USD is such a cornerstone of so much international trade that, depending on how/when such a thing happens, foreign currencies would take a hit as well (especially if a country has a lot of US debt on its books).
States with low or no property tax might be a good idea. People holding Section 8 rental properties are going to have some possibly rough times (as Uncle Sam would be paying less, if anything).
Posted on 9/27/21 at 2:05 pm to Taxing Authority
I've been in the doomer camp since mid-2000s, but never been able to figure out whether the crash with be deflationary or hyperinflationary. I feel like 75% of the alt investment guys are in the hyperinflation camp, but that may be because a lot are goldbugs. I would think at some point interest rates are going to have to rise and that is going to pop some bubbles, in which case cash would be king.
This post was edited on 9/27/21 at 2:06 pm
Posted on 9/27/21 at 2:05 pm to TBoy
quote:
Crash during a worldwide recovery after Covid? Lol. No
Posted on 9/27/21 at 2:28 pm to TBoy
quote:
Crash during a worldwide recovery after Covid? Lol. No
"Recovering" is technically accurate, but "barely recovering" is more like it, "temporarily recovering" is more like it. New jobless claims have been higher than expectations throughout the year and are currently on the uptick.
LINK
Now add to it that we have had 4 back-to-back months of 5% and higher Inflation (this month will probably end up being the same) and suddenly it begins to make any "recovery" (at least here in the US) look more and more like a fairytale.
You can't have a truly "recovering" economy with
Posted on 9/27/21 at 2:32 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:
anyone remember what rates looked like under Carter?
I do... I was young but growing up on a farm it was hard sledding during those years... Interest rates were one of the reasons many went under with Carter in charge... Of course many of his other boneheaded decisions added to it as well...
Posted on 9/27/21 at 2:32 pm to alphaandomega
quote:
Ammo is an extremely safe place to park cash. Very long shelf life and easily stored.
Just very hard to come by at the moment
Posted on 9/27/21 at 2:36 pm to retooc
quote:
So where should I park my money?
Real estate?
Another currency?
My Stock (Up) Picks
==============
.223
9MM
.45
.556
Posted on 9/27/21 at 2:39 pm to NytroBud
quote:
Just very hard to come by at the moment
Bone Frog Gun Club in Las Vegas just sent me a great price on Federal .223 (55 Grain).
500 RDS/$275 ... .55 per round.
Granted its range ammo but good enough for practice.
This post was edited on 9/27/21 at 2:40 pm
Posted on 9/27/21 at 2:54 pm to GumboPot
Best thing anyone can do for themselves right now is to get out of debt as much as possible.
The borrower is slave to the lender.
The borrower is slave to the lender.
Posted on 9/27/21 at 2:58 pm to GumboPot
Treasury bills, bonds.
Posted on 9/27/21 at 3:00 pm to Bunk Moreland
Deflation is good, it means your dollars are more valuable. Not a problem. Any sort of inflation is bad, your buying power is reduced.
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