re: Scott Ritter on Ukraine and Finland joining NATO

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There is no need to provoke Russia. Russia has announced it wants Ukraine and Finland as well as other states to be neutral. Why is this bad?

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It is "bad" in the sense that under no circumstances do Russia's preferences rightfully dictate the foreign policy decisions of sovereign nations .... Throughout NATO's entire existence, not one single member has ever threatened Russia or Russian territory in any meaningful way.

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Russians are so paranoid that it might as well be a part of the national DNA. Whether justified or not, it is wise to keep that paranoia in mind when dealing with them.

Via Norway, NATO has had a border with Russia (well, the USSR) since its inception, but in the Russian collective mind an invasion across tundra does not present nearly the threat that an antagonistic Ukraine presents. Norway is an unpaved dirt pathway into Russia. Ukraine is an eight lane freeway. Finland has as much border, but is perhaps a two-lane, undivided highway by comparison.

At the same time, for decades Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have represented an additional NATO presence on Russia's borders. From our perspective, the chance of a NATO invasion of Russia through the Baltic Republics is essentially "zero," but have no doubt that the Russian paranoia places a MUCH greater likelihood on such an invasion. They have been gnawing their rhetorical fingernails for twenty years or more.

None of which changes the RIGHTS at issue, but all of which is something for the West to keep in mind.

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It makes more sense to dedicate the resources NATO would demand to your own national defense.

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Which is already what they do. You understand that NATO’s funding requirements are for a nation’s own military, right? Not the provision of funds or equipment to NATO.

Finland joining NATO would do nothing to undermine Finland’s own military capability.

Another key here is that Finland joining NATO would be because Finland wants to join NATO. NATO has never once barged in and forced any nation to join. If the Finns say that joining it is in their national interest, it is in their national interest.

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imagine invading a country on your border because you didn't want them to join NATO, failing to conquer that nation, having your military incompetence exposed, having your shitty gear exposed so the other dirtbag countries don't want to buy it anymore, and causing 2 other countries you didn't want to join NATO to immediately join NATO, and then trying to act like you can do anything about it militarily. Invading Ukraine is working out great for Russia

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The Russian military has been so exposed, their gear and equipment deemed so shitty and ineffective..so weak…that countries are now aggressively seeking to join an alliance and pay for military protection. Ya know, because Russia is so incredibly weak..

Considering that only six nations actually meet the defense spending required by NATO, you’re probably right that Finland would ignore that and do what they want. However, in the event that another NATO nation was attacked, Finland would be forced to involve themselves and that would be a strain on their defense spending like never before.

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Finland has been a Western ally for more than 20 years, but there is no mutual defense treaty of which I am aware.

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Theyre part of the EU’s military defense cooperation framework, and they have a mutual defense treaty with the other Scandinavian nations. They also (as of this week) have a mutual defense agreement with the U.K.

Their joining NATO is really just formalizing their own protection.

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Indefatigable

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The post was a "reply" to one of your posts, because I saw it as supporting your position AND providing information that others may not have had. I had no doubt that you were aware. I may not agree with you on every issue, but there is no question that you are intelligent and informed.

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Considering that only six nations actually meet the defense spending required by NATO, you’re probably right that Finland would ignore that

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At 2%, Finnish defense spending already matches the NATO guidelines ... something that can be said of only about a half-dozen NATO members.

This will age well as the months go on and there’s mounting political pressures to fund other sources of energy. If concessions aren’t made by winter the flip of a switch could put Europe into the dark ages literally and figuratively. Then we’re all competing for a smaller oil market.

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They don't need help because russia wasn't going to do anything to Finland. It's a way to escalate the war.

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Again, isn't that for Finland to decide? "Trust me." is not a strong foreign policy position.

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You are quite correct. Russia is no threat to Finland and has NEVER invaded, conquered or annexed Finnish territory.

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Is that what Russia is going to do next? Right after Ukraine he's going to take Finland?