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Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:44 pm to igoringa
Registered democrats are voting for Trump. It's much closer.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:54 pm to PEEPO
quote:Yeah the 37k votes that went to Johnson last time could be huge. I doubt Jorgensen gets 10k...
Gary Johnson got 3.3% in Nevada last time. There will be way less 3rd party votes this time around. Another possible bump for Trump.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:55 pm to angryslugs
quote:
Registered democrats are voting for Trump. It's much closer.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:57 pm to olemc999
Trump will definitely win NH. Clinton barely squeaked by with 2700 votes out of 750,000 in 2016.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:57 pm to ClientNumber9
quote:Let's look at four counties to get a metric on percentage differences...
We're going to need more than that. In 2016 Hillary led by 54K in early voting. She went on to win the state by 27k overall. So while we are in a better position then we were in 2016, we need more.
Close loss - Washoe
Big loss - Clark
Huge win - Elko
Closer win - Carson City
I'll make a spreadsheet...
Posted on 10/28/20 at 6:01 pm to bayoubengals88
I can't wait to see it honestly.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 6:25 pm to igoringa
I’m waiting til Election Day to vote in person so add my Trump vote in the projection.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 6:28 pm to angryslugs
Registered democrats are voting for Trump. It's much closer.
Trump has held rallies where they've said something like 1/4th of the crowd consisted of Democrats. Biden/Harris is a very weak ticket, so 2020 might be a different dynamic.
Trump has held rallies where they've said something like 1/4th of the crowd consisted of Democrats. Biden/Harris is a very weak ticket, so 2020 might be a different dynamic.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 6:46 pm to Eat Your Crow
So, if early voting were ALL we got in Nevada this year Trump would be outperforming in Washoe and pretty damn close in Clark.
And that's with me plugging in shite numbers for Independents. I assumed that Trump would win Independents 52-48 in all four counties whereas in reality, he'll probably win the independent vote at least by that much in Clark. It'll be more like 65-35 in Elko and Carson.
Also, I've got Johnson voters voting FOR Biden at a 40% clip, which absolutely WILL NOT happen. Jorgensen might as well be Elizabeth Warren to these folks.
Again, this is an early vote projection that assumes the following:
1. 100% Republicans for Trump
2. 100% Democrats for Biden
3. 52% of Independents for Trump (low)
4. A 3rd party vote that's half as strong as 2016
5. A 3rd party vote that only favors Trump 60-40 (low)
So what you see based on those estimates are:
CLARK COUNTY - BIDEN +11.92
WASHOE COUNTY - BIDEN +1.14
And folks, this is early voting where Democrats are supposed to be up 2 to 1. Not only are Dems not up 2 to 1 they are right on pace with the total vote from 2016. And in Washoe they're even BEHIND!
When Republicans vote en masse on election day, I expect to see Trump WIN Washoe and lose Clark by less than 10% thus outperforming his 2016 numbers in the two counties that went to Clinton.
This post was edited on 10/28/20 at 6:48 pm
Posted on 10/28/20 at 6:50 pm to igoringa
It’s happening. Isn’t it?
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:09 pm to bayoubengals88
I was putting together some numbers. I'm glad I didn't post my pathetic excel sheet after seeing yours. 
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:18 pm to igoringa
Does Nevada have in person voting or is it all mail this election?
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:42 pm to The Boat
quote:
Does Nevada have in person voting or is it all mail this election?
In person too but everyone was also sent mail ballots.
Add my household as 2 Johnson voters in 16 to 2 Trump voters this week!
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:43 pm to LSUSkip
quote:
Let me just turn NV pink on my 270 to win map.........
Looking at my map now, Sleepy Joe needs everything left on the map. Trump is 6 away. If he can pull NE2, ME2, and NH, the blue wall doesn't even matter.
Still feel like NM swings his way too, but also inconsequential.
You do know Trafalgar has Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania right?
Posted on 10/28/20 at 9:57 pm to bayoubengals88
I’ve been looking at NV numbers today. See if this lines up with what you’re seeing:
Dem ballot advantage is currently 50K, and slowly dropping over the last several days (it was just over 60K last Thursday).
The 2016 pre-Election Day ballot advantage for Dems was 45K. The Dem Election Day ballot advantage was 3K, bringing their total 2016 ballot advantage to 48K. Hillary won the state by 27K votes because Trump won Indies by about 20K votes (crossover was probably not enough to affect much).
**CNN exit poll had Trump winning Indies 50-37, but their R/D splits do not match the NV SOS website. Correcting their #s and doing the math, I believe Trump actually won Indies 44-38.**
So if Dems have a ballot edge of about 45K-50K pre-Election Day, one might say well this looks identical to 2016. But here is the major difference: NV polls are showing R’s will outnumber D’s 3-1 or even 4-1 on Election Day. This is obviously much different than Election Day 2016 when the Dems had a ballot edge of less than 1%.
Can the Repubs make up for that 45K-50K deficit on Election Day? Estimates are that about 20% of the vote will come on Election Day, which would be about 280K votes. A 2-1 advantage would yield a 140K-70K Repub ballot edge, with the remaining 70K being Indies.
Now, some are saying the best way to forecast the Repub Election Day ballot edge is to just use the current “early in person” split, which is 47-31, instead of using polls. In that case the Repub Election Day ballot edge would be 45K.
Putting it all together, it’s looking like the Repubs will cast as many, or slightly more, ballots as the Dems. If Trump wins Indies by 3 (half of his 6-point margin in 2016), I don’t see how the math works for Biden. The crossover vote should be a wash so I don’t see an escape hatch there.
Dem ballot advantage is currently 50K, and slowly dropping over the last several days (it was just over 60K last Thursday).
The 2016 pre-Election Day ballot advantage for Dems was 45K. The Dem Election Day ballot advantage was 3K, bringing their total 2016 ballot advantage to 48K. Hillary won the state by 27K votes because Trump won Indies by about 20K votes (crossover was probably not enough to affect much).
**CNN exit poll had Trump winning Indies 50-37, but their R/D splits do not match the NV SOS website. Correcting their #s and doing the math, I believe Trump actually won Indies 44-38.**
So if Dems have a ballot edge of about 45K-50K pre-Election Day, one might say well this looks identical to 2016. But here is the major difference: NV polls are showing R’s will outnumber D’s 3-1 or even 4-1 on Election Day. This is obviously much different than Election Day 2016 when the Dems had a ballot edge of less than 1%.
Can the Repubs make up for that 45K-50K deficit on Election Day? Estimates are that about 20% of the vote will come on Election Day, which would be about 280K votes. A 2-1 advantage would yield a 140K-70K Repub ballot edge, with the remaining 70K being Indies.
Now, some are saying the best way to forecast the Repub Election Day ballot edge is to just use the current “early in person” split, which is 47-31, instead of using polls. In that case the Repub Election Day ballot edge would be 45K.
Putting it all together, it’s looking like the Repubs will cast as many, or slightly more, ballots as the Dems. If Trump wins Indies by 3 (half of his 6-point margin in 2016), I don’t see how the math works for Biden. The crossover vote should be a wash so I don’t see an escape hatch there.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 10:16 pm to bayoubengals88
Hail Trump!
Hail Victory!
Hail Victory!
Posted on 10/28/20 at 10:43 pm to RidiculousHype
He will need a strong showing from the independents. Even a strong showing by the desert rats is not enough
Posted on 10/28/20 at 10:55 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
NV polls are showing R’s will outnumber D’s 3-1 or even 4-1 on Election Day.
Do you recall where you read this? A lot of your analysis, which seems very well reasoned, seems to hinge on this. In other words, how do we get more certainty around the massive change in turnout share vs. '16?
Posted on 10/28/20 at 10:58 pm to igoringa
Republicans looking good in a lot of states . Republicans are catching democrats in Florida , Nevada and other states. While they appear to lead in Michigan and Wisconsin.
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