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Started By
Message
R's within 50,000 in EV in NV
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:10 pm
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:10 pm
13
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:12 pm to igoringa
Let me just turn NV pink on my 270 to win map.........
Looking at my map now, Sleepy Joe needs everything left on the map. Trump is 6 away. If he can pull NE2, ME2, and NH, the blue wall doesn't even matter.
Still feel like NM swings his way too, but also inconsequential.
Looking at my map now, Sleepy Joe needs everything left on the map. Trump is 6 away. If he can pull NE2, ME2, and NH, the blue wall doesn't even matter.
Still feel like NM swings his way too, but also inconsequential.
This post was edited on 10/28/20 at 2:29 pm
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:13 pm to igoringa
NV/NC/FL all look really good
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:16 pm to LosLobos111
Gotta friend that lives in NH saying he thinks Trump will win there. He predicted the 1 electoral vote out of Maine 4 years ago. That has me pretty pumped.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:12 pm to igoringa
We're going to need more than that. In 2016 Hillary led by 54K in early voting. She went on to win the state by 27k overall. So while we are in a better position then we were in 2016, we need more.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:16 pm to igoringa
Republicans were only down 45K votes after EV in Nevada last year and ultimately lost by 27K votes.
If the EV margin by the end of this week <40K, Trump is likely gonna win Nevada.
Yes, all 3 states have registration by party info and Republicans are going to be in a much stronger position this time than last time, when they won FL and NC and almost won NV.
If the EV margin by the end of this week <40K, Trump is likely gonna win Nevada.
quote:
NV/NC/FL all look really good
Yes, all 3 states have registration by party info and Republicans are going to be in a much stronger position this time than last time, when they won FL and NC and almost won NV.
This post was edited on 10/28/20 at 5:18 pm
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:17 pm to igoringa
LANDSLIDE
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Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:17 pm to igoringa
Ya but Biden is going to win TX and GA I heard
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:18 pm to ClientNumber9
quote:
We're going to need more than that. In 2016 Hillary led by 54K in early voting. She went on to win the state by 27k overall. So while we are in a better position then we were in 2016, we need more.
Agreed, still need to make a run
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:18 pm to igoringa
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:22 pm to ClientNumber9
By my math, if POTUS gets 60% of the independents in Early Voting in NV, he is still 10K short on election day (422K D vs 412K R).
I have NV light blue on my map, although I think it will be very close.
I have NV light blue on my map, although I think it will be very close.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:23 pm to igoringa
quote:
Agreed, still need to make a run
The good news is the Democrats mail in ballots have slowed and Republicans are gaining back ground every day. Was 1K a day, then 3K, and now has moved to 5K the past few days. The momentum is all on the Republicans side if current trends hold.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:24 pm to jat912
quote:
By my math, if POTUS gets 60% of the independents in Early Voting in NV, he is still 10K short on election day (422K D vs 412K R).
I have NV light blue on my map, although I think it will be very close.
Ralston's analysis of 2016 says Trump was +13% of independents last time. If that holds serve or has increased slightly, he's got it.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:28 pm to PEEPO
When does early voting end in Nevada?
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:28 pm to jat912
All this is assuming that everyone votes party line, correct?
I think many more registered democrats will vote Trump, than vice versa.
I think many more registered democrats will vote Trump, than vice versa.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:29 pm to PEEPO
If he's +13%, that puts him at 56-57% (leaving out 3rd party candidates). That's less than 60.
Not picking a fight - what am I missing?
Not picking a fight - what am I missing?
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:30 pm to Eat Your Crow
quote:
When does early voting end in Nevada?
Friday is the last day, so we'll have final stats Saturday.
Mail in ballots in Nevada are accepted as long as they are postmarked by election day, so if it's razor close unfortunately they'll likely be ballots that arrive a day or two after election day that are possibly valid.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:30 pm to PEEPO
quote:
Ralston's analysis of 2016 says Trump was +13% of independents last time. If that holds serve or has increased slightly, he's got it
It’ll be tight. He got some good endorsements today. States that depend on tourism have no love for an administration that intends to put them out of business. They’ll stay home or hold their nose and vote Trump.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:31 pm to ClientNumber9
Maybe... but as a percentage of election day voters, Trumpsters are going to be way higher... will it be enough in overall raw votes? Hard to say, but it's going to be tight.
Posted on 10/28/20 at 5:32 pm to jat912
quote:
leaving out 3rd party candidates
That's a good point actually. Gary Johnson got 3.3% in Nevada last time. There will be way less 3rd party votes this time around. Another possible bump for Trump.
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