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re: RCP: FBI quietly edits crime stats, crime is actually +4.5%, not -2.1%

Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:10 am to
Posted by Vacherie Saint
Member since Aug 2015
47575 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:10 am to
quote:

go straight to the cities' data


JFC now you are just trolling.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
476852 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:12 am to
quote:

You want to play word games just like always.

I specifically asked you to describe how I was

quote:

You’ll try to argue at some point that underreported or misreported data isn’t technically “fake”,

Never said that. THAT is a straw man.

quote:

or that changes in laws or the way DAs charge crimes (if at all) isn’t aimed at gaming FBI data.

Never said that, either. THAT is a straw man.

This is why I use violent crime. Much harder to do this. Murders are the best to use, as it's very hard to change a murder into another crime.

Now, are you going to answer the actual question?

Are you going to ignore me citing a post specifically confirming my position stated ITT?
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
476852 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:13 am to
quote:

JFC now you are just trolling.


If we can't use the data from the cities, then no discussion is possible.

There is no veracity to any claim (positive or negative) if the data is fake.
Posted by jchamil
Member since Nov 2009
19485 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:14 am to
quote:

That statement requires a level of intellectual inconsistency.

Arguing "the data is fake" when it's bad for your argument and "the data is valid" when it's good for your argument is not a consistent position.


I never said the data was valid. I'm saying it was underreported before the covid spike and underreported after the covid spike. I'm saying the spike doesn't mean the numbers are valid at any point.
Posted by Vacherie Saint
Member since Aug 2015
47575 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:17 am to
quote:

You’ll try to argue at some point that underreported or misreported data isn’t technically “fake”


quote:

Never said that




Then literally one post later
quote:

There is no veracity to any claim (positive or negative) if the data is fake.

This post was edited on 10/16/24 at 10:19 am
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
476852 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:18 am to
quote:

I'm saying the spike doesn't mean the numbers are valid at any point.

Which means we can't have a discussion about the topic.

As I said in that post

quote:

IF the data is fake, then we can't discuss the issue at all b/c there is nothing with veracity from which to take a side.

Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
476852 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:20 am to
Where did I say the data was fake?

Don't edit out posts where I respond to others claiming it's fake with a statement starting with a conditional word (like "if").

I'm not arguing the data is fake.

I am responding to others who say it's fake with the logical implications of that scenario (we can't discuss the issue at all, effectively)
Posted by jchamil
Member since Nov 2009
19485 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:20 am to
quote:

Which means we can't have a discussion about the topic.


That's fine. I just don't think the crime stats reflecting a spike in crime after covid is definitive proof that crime stats are not underreported.
Posted by SCTmo
Des Moines
Member since Aug 2007
3019 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:20 am to
quote:

Which means we can't have a discussion about the topic.



If the data consistently gets adjusted in one direction across multiple agencies in multiple locales, perhaps you could draw some conclusions to the original data?
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
476852 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:21 am to
quote:

I just don't think the crime stats reflecting a spike in crime after covid is definitive proof that crime stats are not underreported.

I understand, which is why I responded with the full statement.

People spiking the football claiming crime is increasing by calling the data fake don't realize they're self-owning themselves and no spike is possible (because there is no veracity from which to argue crime is increasing, or has increased post-Covid, even).
Posted by Vacherie Saint
Member since Aug 2015
47575 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:23 am to
Yet you keep using the word “fake” over and fricking over again. No one else is characterizing it that way.

You think we don’t know what you’re doing? We aren’t as stupid as you need us to be, junior.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
476852 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:23 am to
quote:

If the data consistently gets adjusted in one direction across multiple agencies in multiple locales, perhaps you could draw some conclusions to the original data?

Right now the adjustment higher is during a period of increasing crime.

We'll have to wait to see the revisions for 2023-2024 to make that claim. We can't assume revisions in the future that haven't happened. They don't always go up (but they're more likely to go up in periods of increasing crime).

Again, its' a "we can't even have the discussion" scenario. Maybe in 2026.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
476852 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:24 am to
quote:

Yet you keep using the word “fake” over and fricking over again.

In response to people calling the data fake.

quote:

No one else is characterizing it that way.

How are they characterizing it, then?

Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
41316 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:26 am to
There are dozen of articles which show citizens in major cities are not reporting crime anymore due to lack of punishment of criminals or the police not even caring.

He refuses to address these facts.
Posted by Vacherie Saint
Member since Aug 2015
47575 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:28 am to
People here are correctly characterizing this initial FBI data as underreported or incomplete. Because it clearly is and there has been no shortage of sound reporting on that.

This has been the charge all along, and the FBI just essentially confirmed it. You want to rope someone into calling it fake so you can play your gay little equivocation game.
Posted by Vacherie Saint
Member since Aug 2015
47575 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:30 am to
DAs are not charging criminals in these jurisdictions. They run on this and brag about it. Does that mean the crimes aren’t happening?

Kamala herself wouldn’t charge a drug dealer in SF until their third arrest.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
476852 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:38 am to
quote:

People here are correctly characterizing this initial FBI data as underreported or incomplete.

Underreported by the cities, correct?

Certainly, incomplete due to cities not reporting, correct?

quote:

there has been no shortage of sound reporting on that.

"Sound? meh

quote:

You want to rope someone into calling it fake

They do this themselves. Just like the "sound" reporting you just referenced.
Posted by Vacherie Saint
Member since Aug 2015
47575 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:44 am to
Ah. The “I know you are, but what am I?” argument.

Gold. Absolute Gold.
Posted by OBReb6
Memphissippi
Member since Jul 2010
41553 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:45 am to
Hmm

So, what this means is the FBI’s modeling for 2022 had to be revised based on the hard data that came in.

Would everyone agree that is an accurate statement?
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
476852 posts
Posted on 10/16/24 at 10:46 am to
quote:

Ah. The “I know you are, but what am I?” argument.

Is English your second language? My post has none of that

I take it you won't be answering my questions?
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