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re: Rasmussen poll...Election 2024: Trump 50%, Harris 43%

Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:33 am to
Posted by Houag80
Member since Jul 2019
19442 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:33 am to
That's spicy!
Posted by BillWilliamson
Pensacola, Fl.
Member since Nov 2020
86 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:35 am to
quote:

I was over at my dads house today helping with some household chores. He lives in a very rural area of a very red state. At the end of the work we went to one of the nearby country bars. It's the kind of place that farmers, truckers, legit cowboy boot wearers and the working class go to unwind with a cold one.

Vice President Harris was on the TV and the local gun store owner said to his auto mechanic (friends since high school),

"You know what? She ain't so bad. The economy is recovering, nobody's rioting, and we're standing up on the world stage again. Can't believe I'm saying this but Ol' Oakland Kam's got my vote this year."

I looked around and all I saw were heads nodding in agreement. I heard a few calls of "Yes sir" and
"Damn Straight" from the men around me. Even saw the lonely ball cap wearing farmer in the corner raise his drink with a nod.


This the best BS story that never happened that I've read in a while. Thanks for the laugh.
Posted by AUstar
Member since Dec 2012
19612 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:36 am to
Full details:

1,074 likely voters were polled by a combination of telephone and an online survey.

Trump: 50%
Harris:43%
Third party: 4%
Undecided: 3%

Margin of error: 3% at a 95% confidence interval

There is more data but Rasmussen puts it behind a paywall, so this is all they list for free.
Posted by Godfather1
What WAS St George, Louisiana
Member since Oct 2006
89001 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:38 am to
quote:

That’s lifted directly from Reddit. It was making the rounds yesterday on conservative Twitter


They can’t even make the bullshite semi-believable with her.
Posted by lsursb
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
12309 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:38 am to
Rasmussen is a racist misogynist white supremacist Nazi Zionist. did i miss anything?.
Posted by roadGator
DeBoar’s dome
Member since Feb 2009
157710 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:53 am to
Transphobic
Posted by Bronson2017
Birmingham
Member since Feb 2019
2200 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:54 am to
quote:

I was over at my dads house today helping with some household chores. He lives in a very rural area of a very red state. At the end of the work we went to one of the nearby country bars. It's the kind of place that farmers, truckers, legit cowboy boot wearers and the working class go to unwind with a cold one. Vice President Harris was on the TV and the local gun store owner said to his auto mechanic (friends since high school), "You know what? She ain't so bad. The economy is recovering, nobody's rioting, and we're standing up on the world stage again. Can't believe I'm saying this but Ol' Oakland Kam's got my vote this year." I looked around and all I saw were heads nodding in agreement. I heard a few calls of "Yes sir" and "Damn Straight" from the men around me. Even saw the lonely ball cap wearing farmer in the corner raise his drink with a nod


If this was a serious attempt, this is the most pathetic thing I’ve seen posted here in quite some time. And that’s saying something with what we have seen the last couple of weeks with the Democratic Party.
Posted by SlickRick55
Member since May 2016
2872 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:59 am to
Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.

Forget about polling percentages.
Posted by TN Tygah
Member since Nov 2023
7837 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 12:00 pm to
quote:

Rasmussen is terrible.

-infidegate (or whatever the frick his name is)


Rasmussen isn’t the best though. Their polls are always going to be right leaning
Posted by chili dogs
Member since Sep 2013
451 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 12:30 pm to
I don't believe any of this.
Posted by Lou Pai
Member since Dec 2014
29594 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

NB4 Rasmussen is a shite pollster.


They aren't shite but they tend to have a GOP bias. It's alright to acknowledge that at least.
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
16395 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 1:43 pm to
Here is something I can’t understand

(How I could just kill a maaaan!)

If the race was close when it was Biden v trump, how is it not closer now that trumps opponent is not a near death mumbler?
Posted by timdonaghyswhistle
Member since Jul 2018
21037 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 1:47 pm to
Was this poll taken before or after the MSM had a simultaneous orgasm over Kamala?
Posted by mikeytig
NE of Tiger Stadium
Member since Nov 2007
7880 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 1:48 pm to
Joe at least had likability



Posted by MemphisGuy
Germantown, TN
Member since Nov 2023
14648 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 1:49 pm to
quote:

If this was a serious attempt, this is the most pathetic thing I’ve seen posted here in quite some time. And that’s saying something with what we have seen the last couple of weeks with the Democratic Party.


That was on reddit last night. Great for a laugh!
Posted by OU Guy
Member since Feb 2022
29752 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 1:58 pm to
quote:

Rasmussen is terrible.

-infidegate (or whatever the frick his name is)

They were pretty bad in 2020 and the last two midterm cycles. It seemed like they built in too much silent GOP support in their numbers post-2016.


Lets tell a story:




Rasmussen Reports
@Rasmussen_Poll
#SAD

We are D+2 so that doesn't explain it. Likely Voters vs Registered Voters is probably SOME of this but the rest is a mystery.




The Panda Tribune
@PandaTribune

I think I can help with that.

I just compared the July 16 Reuters/Ipsos poll to their July 22 poll.

In the July 16 poll:
•33% of Independents were Biden 2020 voters vs. 29% Trump voters (Biden+4)
BUT in the July 22 poll:
•36% of Independents were Biden 2020 voters vs. 23% who voted Trump (Biden+13)




They basically changed the composition of their sample Independents group by D+9 points from last week (July 16) to now (July 22)!

It also explains why last week's poll had Trump +3 w/ Independents (38% to 35%), but this week's poll had Kamala +8 w/ Independents (30% to 38%)




Simply put, in their latest survey sample, Ipsos/Reuters dramatically increased the % of Independents who voted Biden in 2020 (& decreased the % who voted Trump) in a cheeky attempt at laundering more Democrat voters into the poll without increasing the D vs. R sample weighting.
Posted by UtahGetMeTwo
Member since Jul 2024
264 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 2:11 pm to
That's not good.

They very well might swap Cacklala out at convention.
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
103940 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 2:15 pm to
Who takes that spot? Big Mike?


The Dems are fricked. Trump has solidified his base, independents are leading toward him, and everyone willing to take the nomination has issues with policy and/or likeability.



Getting the NPCs to vote Dem won’t be a problem, getting independents to vote Dem or a lot of rank and file Dems to turn out will be a huge issue.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
140573 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 2:19 pm to
RCP has included the new Rasmussen poll in their aggregate. Emerson is listed here as +6 Trump. Rasmussen and Emerson are pretty much aligned. As you stated, Emerson is currently considered the most accurate. So, maybe Rasmussen is not that much of an outlier.

Posted by SidewalkDawg
Chair
Member since Nov 2012
10292 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 2:19 pm to


I don't trust a single poll. You shouldn't either.
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