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Rank your Senate races from highest to least confidence:
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:19 pm
Nebraska/Florida- 100%, Ricketts and Moody will win
Maine- 80%, Collins always holds onto her seat
Iowa- 75%, Hinson is a good candidate
Kansas- 70%.
South Carolina- 65%- this one scares me, Graham is a weak candidate
Michigan- 50%, Abdul is a terrible candidate
Ohio- 40%- Vivek may sink Husted
Texas- 35%, nail biter that shouldn't be
Alaska- 25%, ranked choice voting and double Dan Sullivan BS
North Carolina/Georgia-0%, Ossoff and Cooper are winning.
Maine- 80%, Collins always holds onto her seat
Iowa- 75%, Hinson is a good candidate
Kansas- 70%.
South Carolina- 65%- this one scares me, Graham is a weak candidate
Michigan- 50%, Abdul is a terrible candidate
Ohio- 40%- Vivek may sink Husted
Texas- 35%, nail biter that shouldn't be
Alaska- 25%, ranked choice voting and double Dan Sullivan BS
North Carolina/Georgia-0%, Ossoff and Cooper are winning.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:20 pm to GeneralLee
quote:
Texas- 35%, nail biter that shouldn't be
Why?
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:23 pm to GeneralLee
quote:
Collins always holds onto her seat
30 years later..
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:24 pm to MyMardiGrasHat
Turnout in urban areas is very high while rural/suburban areas haven't matched. We have to pray that Talafreako runs relatively weak with Hispanics compared to Hispanic House candidates in South Texas that may peel off some House districts.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:27 pm to GeneralLee
I was at my inlaws in the woodlands over the weekend and was surprised to see Talarico signs outnumbering Paxton signs.
Historically republicans especially MAGA republicans are more likely to display campaign signs
Historically republicans especially MAGA republicans are more likely to display campaign signs
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:30 pm to MyMardiGrasHat
Need black and hispanic support for Talafreako to be weak to overcome the AWFL's that are proliferating in Texas.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:31 pm to MyMardiGrasHat
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:32 pm to GeneralLee
I’d switch Maine and South Carolina but otherwise that’s a solid list
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:39 pm to GeneralLee
GOP wins Nebraska, Florida, Maine, Ohio, Texas, Kansas, Louisiana, and South Carolina
DEMs win Michigan, Alaska, Georgia, and North Carolina
DEMs win Michigan, Alaska, Georgia, and North Carolina
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:40 pm to GeneralLee
quote:
Texas- 35%, nail biter that shouldn't be
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:44 pm to DarthRebel
Have you bet on Paxton yet?
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:44 pm to MyMardiGrasHat
quote:
Why?
You seen the dude running for the democrats by chance?
He’s mental.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:47 pm to GeneralLee
Thanks for putting this together.
A lot of these races will finish within a couple of points.
51%-49% or
52%-48% type of results
A lot of these races will finish within a couple of points.
51%-49% or
52%-48% type of results
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:49 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
Have you bet on Paxton yet?
If by betting, you mean voting, then yes I have already bet on him.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:51 pm to GeneralLee
Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa 100%
NH 90%
Michigan 80%
Minnesota 60%
Georgia 51%
NC 30%
NH 90%
Michigan 80%
Minnesota 60%
Georgia 51%
NC 30%
This post was edited on 10/27/26 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:52 pm to GeneralLee
quote:
Turnout in urban areas is very high while rural/suburban areas haven't matched. We have to pray that Talafreako runs relatively weak with Hispanics compared to Hispanic House candidates in South Texas that may peel off some House districts.
Please go on, without doing any research
quote:
Texas early voting update, Oct. 27
The newest statewide reporting I can find shows just over 5.1 million Texans have already voted in the 2026 general election.
Total: 5,137,795
In person: 4,904,201
By mail: 233,594
What we know about R vs. D
Texas does not register voters by political party, so these are not actual Republican/Democratic vote totals. However, voting history gives us a useful indicator.
Among the in-person voters:
?? Republican-primary-only voters: 1,585,594 (32.3%)
?? Democratic-primary-only voters: 1,565,380 (31.9%)
?? Voted in both parties' primaries: 145,913 (3.0%)
? No primary history: 1,607,314 (32.8%)
So among voters with a clear single-party primary history, Republicans currently lead Democrats by only 20,214 voters.
Mail ballots tilt the other direction:
?? Democratic-primary history: 82,278
?? Republican-primary history: 61,857
That means when those two categories are combined across in-person and mail voting:
Democratic-primary voters: 1,647,658
Republican-primary voters: 1,647,451
That's essentially a dead heat, with Democrats ahead by 207 voters among voters with exclusive D/R primary histories.
The big wild card is the enormous group with no usable primary-party history, so this absolutely does not mean the actual statewide vote is tied.
For comparison, reporting after the first seven days put turnout at 23.4% of registered Texas voters, ahead of the comparable 2022 midterm rate but slightly behind 2018's 24.3%.
Given how close those identifiable R/D pools are, Texas early voting is looking considerably more competitive than a normal recent Texas statewide election at this stage.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:55 pm to GeneralLee
Maine confuses me so much. Trump is like 20+ points under water there and the polls have been close - though like Trump in the national polling in 2024, has Jackson up by a small amount in most polls
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:55 pm to DarthRebel
No, I mean betting
You’re calling people “retards” for only giving him a 35% chance. That feels like you’re pretty damn sure Paxton is gonna win.
That’s basically the exact odds he has on every popular prediction market
$1000 bet pays ~$2800. Somewhere between +170 and +180 odds
If I’m positive of a victory AND they’re giving me odds that juicy, that’s a no brainer decision
So why haven’t you bet on him?
You’re calling people “retards” for only giving him a 35% chance. That feels like you’re pretty damn sure Paxton is gonna win.
That’s basically the exact odds he has on every popular prediction market
$1000 bet pays ~$2800. Somewhere between +170 and +180 odds
If I’m positive of a victory AND they’re giving me odds that juicy, that’s a no brainer decision
So why haven’t you bet on him?
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:55 pm to DarthRebel
The Texas electorate probably needs to be R+10 or higher by the end of election day for Paxton to win given the ticket splitting that is likely to occur.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 12:57 pm to GeneralLee
Rinos rsn nothing but weak babbling cucks. No messages but we listen to Trump or my dead brother or husband won an election so vote for me
Nobody to blame but themselves
As corrupt as the Dems too but get zero accomplished
Sad but US is going Communist Hunger Games prequel
Nobody to blame but themselves
As corrupt as the Dems too but get zero accomplished
Sad but US is going Communist Hunger Games prequel
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