Ralph Abraham internal polling numbers: Not looking good for the GOP

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I don't see where this poll was really touted by the Abraham campaign

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Well, I don't think they really want to bring a lot of attention to the fact that he's trailing JBE in a hypothetical runoff.

It’s not a bad poll for Abraham. It is actually encouraging.

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It’s not a bad poll for Abraham. It is actually encouraging.

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Then why hasn't he mentioned it? Why hasn't his campaign promoted the poll?

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You mean those stupid rednecks in Louisiana may vote Blue again? I can't believe it

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The stupid ones absolutely will. You can replace rednecks with voters.

I know it's an old one but a Louisiana taxpayer voting for Edwards would be like a chicken voting for Col. Sanders.

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Then why hasn't he mentioned it? Why hasn't his campaign promoted the poll?

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Because it doesn’t show him winning. But anyone following politics knows is the incumbent is at our below 45% in the first primary then he’s vulnerable especially when 2 and 3 are after the same voters.

I’m not an Abraham guy, but if I were I would be excited. With a few weeks to go he seems to be headed for a run off and that will help his fund raising.

JBE is going to win again. Guaranteed.

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John Bel Edwards, Democrat: 45%
Ralph Abraham, Republican: 27%
Eddie Rispone, Republican: 19%
Gary Landrieu, Independent: 2%
Oscar “Omar” Dantzler, Democrat: 0%
One of the other candidates: 1%
Undecided: 6%

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If he is north of 47 in the primary, he has to have 50/50 odds to be able to get to 50 in the runoff, UNLESS the GOP absolutely nails him to the wall in the runoff season and the GOP candidate (likely Abraham) run a great runoff race.

If he's 45-47, I think it's going to come down to, can he drive his base to the polls on the runoff day.

If he's south of 45, he's in a lot of trouble.

It's really about what the Rispone voters. They have got to almost support Abraham, 100 percent in the runoff, for Abraham to win.

Thing is, you got people out there like my neighbor, who is a police officer and his wife is a teacher, who generally vote GOP (they had a Trump sign in 2016) who have a JBE sign right now. And when I ask them why, they say, "he's done a pretty good job".

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You'd have to be delusional to think JBE isn't vulnerable. This is going to be close either way. I was pretty surprised at the runoff numbers though. I'm sure Ralph's people were expecting to see him leapfrog JBE in a hypothetical runoff and then would have promoted this pol

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Some here are delusional

And as little as Ralph has spent, I think he is pleased to be this close and pleased to see his Republican rival panicking.

Abraham with more money in a runoff will do tell. He has to like where he is right now.

I've admitted here many times I was one of those stupid people.

I was so giddy in 2009 when I got my post grad degree from LSU and I got to meet Mary Landrieu.

UGH I could kick myself in the arse now. At least I wasn't dumb enough to vote for Obama the year before, but I did vote for Hillary in the primary. This was back when I was just a racist, since I didn't vote Obama.

I became a sexist when I didn't vote Hilldog in 2016.

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If he is north of 47 in the primary, he has to have 50/50 odds to be able to get to 50 in the runoff, UNLESS the GOP absolutely nails him to the wall in the runoff season and the GOP candidate (likely Abraham) run a great runoff race. If he's 45-47, I think it's going to come down to, can he drive his base to the polls on the runoff day. If he's south of 45, he's in a lot of trouble.

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This is a great synopsis of the race that is spot on. If JBE is under 45%, which is what latest poll shows, he’s going to have a tough time being re-elected.