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re: Primary model gives Trump 91% chance of winning
Posted on 10/9/20 at 8:01 am to oogabooga68
Posted on 10/9/20 at 8:01 am to oogabooga68
I guess my point was that if I had 10,000 posts, would I still be called a bot or an alter?? I don't know. Maybe so.
0
Posted on 10/9/20 at 8:02 am to Robin Masters
I am certainly a pessimist this cycle, I just don't know if we'll mop the floor like the GOP did in '16.
I think we hold on to the senate though.
I think we hold on to the senate though.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 8:04 am to Rasputin
quote:
Not a bot. Just haven't spent every waking moment posting on on here.
Gallup also consistently has the President underwater on approval rating. So even if a voter feels they are better off, they are not giving the President credit for it. And at this point, there are very few undecided voters versus 2016. I just don't see where the President's votes are going to come from. Of course folks will just say the polls are wrong like they were in 2016. But the President really benefited in 2016 from lots of undecided voters breaking his way just before the election. Don't see that happening this time around.
Joe will struggle to get as many votes as Hiltary. My guess is Trump wins the electoral count by a big margin plus a majority of overall votes.
Joe is a worse candidate than the diaper wearer.
So basically what you are saying is Joe is a better candidate than Hiltary. Good luck with that, they should have spent the last 4 years trying to develop a good candidate.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 8:10 am to Rasputin
quote:
And at this point, there are very few undecided voters versus 201
when cnn and others had biden +3 a couple weeks or so ago, they all said there was about 5% undecidsd.
now biden wins by 12-15% ???? where did that 10% come from?
polls are such garbage
Posted on 10/9/20 at 8:29 am to Robin Masters
I read the other thread last night and the article from Spectator and I believe this. I believe this bc of boat parades, car parades and Joe Biden’s anemic looking “rallies.” It’s not as if the Democrats I know are so excited about Joe, they just hate Trump. These are informed and regular voters. They always show up to vote. Joe needs the Democrats, or really the independents who only go to vote if they are excited. Those people belong to the Orange Man.
Plus, for example, Trump (an incumbent) won the Louisiana Primary by 95/96 percent. That’s just republicans who showed up that day to vote for something else.
By contrast, Joe Biden, who by that point was the only candidate who hadn’t dropped out- got like 80 something.
Do you honestly think if 20 percent of the Democrats in Louisiana are voting for someone else in the Democrat primary - that those same Democrats are actually showing up to vote on Election Day? I think not.
I believe Trump will win bc nobody is excited about Joe Biden. That is evidenced only by primary votes. It makes the most sense. There are Trump haters and Trump supporters. There are no ardent Joe Biden supporters. None. The poor dude is a shell of his former self, running with a soulless
Opportunistic fake who’re.
The election is all about turnout, and nobody is showing up for Joe.
Plus, for example, Trump (an incumbent) won the Louisiana Primary by 95/96 percent. That’s just republicans who showed up that day to vote for something else.
By contrast, Joe Biden, who by that point was the only candidate who hadn’t dropped out- got like 80 something.
Do you honestly think if 20 percent of the Democrats in Louisiana are voting for someone else in the Democrat primary - that those same Democrats are actually showing up to vote on Election Day? I think not.
I believe Trump will win bc nobody is excited about Joe Biden. That is evidenced only by primary votes. It makes the most sense. There are Trump haters and Trump supporters. There are no ardent Joe Biden supporters. None. The poor dude is a shell of his former self, running with a soulless
Opportunistic fake who’re.
The election is all about turnout, and nobody is showing up for Joe.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 8:48 am to Wednesday
Got your numbers reversed, it's 19%.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 8:55 am to Robin Masters
quote:
It was first posted March 2, 2020, on Twitter.
not only does that website look like it was created in 1998, but you say the model "predicted" a Trump victory in March. I wonder if any significant events have taken place since March that might affect the outcome of the electionThis post was edited on 10/9/20 at 8:55 am
Posted on 10/9/20 at 8:56 am to Wednesday
quote:I feel so much better now
I believe this bc of boat parades
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:02 am to Jake88
That same "garbage" model has accurately predicted 25 of the last 27 presidential elections. New York or not it would easily be a Trump landslide if the model is mostly correct.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:02 am to Pecker
Mock all you like. Joe Biden had a car parade. 3 cars showed up. It was embarrassing.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:06 am to BuzzSaw 12
quote:
That same "garbage" model has accurately predicted 25 of the last 27 presidential elections. New York or not it would easily be a Trump landslide if the model is mostly correct.
Serious question: Has that Model been around that long? Meaning, did it actually predict those in advance? Or, is that a backwards look - "If we put in the data from the past, we get X result" data mining type thing?
I am not criticizing. I am trying to learn.
I've seen "investment models" that are built from past data (for example). Therefore, they are tremendously accurate at predicting the "past"...they do less well for the future.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:20 am to ihometiger
quote:heh heh heh heh
Team Biden just paid him $1.75 to post that post so who is laughing now!
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:22 am to Pecker
quote:it is the very legitimate factor, enthusiasm
I believe this bc of boat parades
I feel so much better now
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:23 am to Jake88
quote:
For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner of 25 out of 27 elections since 1912, when presidential primaries were introduced. The misses are 1960, one of the closest presidential elections, and 2000, when the late count in Florida handed Bush the victory; still Al Gore wound up winning the popular vote.
Yeah total garbage
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:24 am to Robin Masters
This reminds me of that guy that has correctly predicted nearly every presidential election. Has he weighed in yet?
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:38 am to Robin Masters
The Nate Bronze model gives Biden 86% chance of winning
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:39 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
I still have seen no explanation as to how Trump can win a deep-blue state like New York while losing a nearby purple state like New Hampshire. How does that make sense?
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:40 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
I give Nate Bronze a 100% chance of loving BBC....
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:40 am to BlackHelicopterPilot
quote:
Has that Model been around that long? Meaning, did it actually predict those in advance?
I think he developed it 30 years ago using reverse engineering - ie, he plugged in existing data and formulations until his model closely matched the results of previous elections. Then he used the same model going forward to predict more recent elections.
Who knows if there is any validity to this. Think of doing this with the Super Bowl. Let's say you went back and found a few stats that highly correlated with a Super Bowl win. For example, teams that had a better division record during the regular season and teams that had a better rushing yards per carry during regular season wins won 85% of Super Bowls. Does that really tell you anything or is it just coincidence? Maybe the division was weak and rushing isn't as important in the modern NFL as it was in the past.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 9:42 am to BobLeeDagger
quote:
This reminds me of that guy that has correctly predicted nearly every presidential election. Has he weighed in yet?
You mean Helmut Norpoth? This is his model predicting this
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