re: Primary model gives Trump 91% chance of winning

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have seen no explanation as to how Trump can win a deep-blue state like New York while losing a nearby purple state like New Hampshire. How does that make sense?

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this was the swing from 2012-2016... just need one more of these from 2016-2020


Republican—>30%
Republican—25-30%
Republican—20-25%
Republican—15-20%
Republican—10-15%
Republican—5-10%
Republican—<5%
Democratic—<5%

Have you seen how pissed off those Jewish People are in NYC? It won’t turn NYC red, but it is enough to make a difference in the statewide result.

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Yeah that date throws out this model entirely.

I could see Trump winning very easily over Biden pre-covid

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The creator of the model did the same thing in 2016 by predicting a Trump win early in the election year due to voter results in primaries, etc., even though he was getting smashed in the polls by Sanders and Hillary.

And he is saying that COVID and the riots won't make a big enough difference to change the outcome according to his model. He basically believes that people will largely vote how they usually vote (or at least how they did in primaries). It will be interesting to see if his model fails this time, but the dude is extremely confident in his model. People were making fun of him in 2016 when he predicted a Trump win with much certainty. He called the polling methods "bunk" back then and was completely validated.

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For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner of 25 out of 27 elections since 1912, when presidential primaries were introduced. The misses are 1960, one of the closest presidential elections, and 2000, when the late count in Florida handed Bush the victory; still Al Gore wound up winning the popular vote

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The model was first used in
1996 and retrofitted to pick the winners going back to 1912. The ones it was actually active for were pretty obvious save for 2000 and 2016. So it is 50% for toss up or slightly worse elections.

Ray Fair puts out a model he's used since 1980 and last year it said Trump would win, but currently is says Biden will win.