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Started By
Message
re: Pennsylvania Final Early Vote Data
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:24 am to tiger91
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:24 am to tiger91
quote:
Can someone explain the “firewall” to me please?
In 2020, Democrats had a 1.1 million vote lead headed into Election Day.
Republicans won election day by over 1 million, but ended up losing overall by around 80,000 votes.
Democrats look like they are going to have about a 410k vote lead headed into tomorrow. Republicans normally come out more on election day, so eve if Republicans perform half as well as they normally do, they will win.
The firewall concept is for Democrats to have such a lead going into Election Day that they can't lose. It didnt happen this year. In fact, of the three possibilities left in PA:
Democrats get their arse beat
Its close
Democrats win a tight election
Democrats getting their arse beat is the most likely. There are only 230k outstanding ballots, so they can't just manufacture a victory. Its grim in PA for Kamala. She's there all day hoping to get women energized to vote to kill their children.
If Trump wins PA, and it is extremely likely, then winning GA and NC in the Eastern Time Zone ends it. Don't need Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada or Arizona. They won't call Pennsylvania early because of this, but the numbers are likely there to generate an early call. We'll know by 4:00 tomorrow if the women came out in the numbers they need.
This post was edited on 11/4/24 at 10:26 am
2
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:25 am to cypher
quote:
latest PA data.
Thanks, Cypher!
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:25 am to SaintInBham
I find it hard to believe that something like 60% of Hunters in PA weren't registered to vote, thats just crazy.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:27 am to JoylessMurderball
quote:
It all comes down to PA. I think Scott Pressler has done an amazing job registering new Republicans and just have to hope they all show up and stay in line.
He legitimately might change the course of the entire country for the next four years with his work in PA.
TurningPoint USA is also doing a good job with registration and GOTV efforts, but PA is Pressler.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:29 am to tide06
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:31 am to SaintInBham
quote:
I’m really curious about crossover votes for blue collar and/or union voters. These numbers assume 100% vote along party lines
All the Union baws are gonna get to the booth and then secretly vote Harris/Walz so that his daughters can kill his grandchildren whenever they want, because the DNC told him it was okay and no one would know.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:37 am to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
Guys, it's proportional to overall vote. I think we're expecting a lot less total votes in 2024 than 2020.
Therefore, your blue firewall doesn't need to be as big because there are also less red votes remaining proportionally.
Right. So EV in Penn is running about 60% of what it was in 2020. Using the 1.1m firewall from 2020 we get something like a 660,000 vote lead being necessary for Democrats.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:47 am to Golgi Apparatus
I thought the 500,000 number was before the 70-30 split. That would get them more in the area of replicating - proportionally - the 2020 vote.
Right now they are 400,000 up in EV with 175,000 independents. 70-30 split gets them to 522,000. Still over 100,000 short of the 2020 proportions (they would need 640,000-650,000 to match 2020). So even a 100% break for Independents does not get them there.
Right now they are 400,000 up in EV with 175,000 independents. 70-30 split gets them to 522,000. Still over 100,000 short of the 2020 proportions (they would need 640,000-650,000 to match 2020). So even a 100% break for Independents does not get them there.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:47 am to John Barron
Bannon is mocking them saying where are all those low propensity voters from 2020? I will explain what happened in 2020. If there is one thing I know its numbers and codes.
So, in 2020 Biden "Won" even though Trump got a higher % of Blacks, Latinos and Women. But with Biden, he won a higher % of "White Male" vote to secure the victory, but how? Make it make sense !! How did Biden get 81 Million Votes but the Dems lost the House? Make it make sense !! OK
So, the Dems plan was to send out ballots to EVERYONE and by data mining they knew white males are the least likely to vote, so those STUFFED BALLOT BOXES were filled with white males who never or rarely voted. BUT ALAS, the cheat was not enough, Trump got 75 million votes so they had to shut it down and bring in more White Voters & anyone else, whom their data banks showed did not vote in 2020 and they voted for them over a few days period of time.
This is how you get anomalies like Biden's White Voter Percentage uptick gives him the victory, but guess what, that White Voter % only rose in those 6 to 7 places where Biden just so happened to need a higher % to win those Swing States (WINK WINK). BS Mr. Hand Man (Enter the Dragon Quote). Swings & Trends like that just do not happen in a few select spots ALL ACROSS the nation, that's just not how it works, people like Mark Halperin know this but are too big a cowards to admit this.
That is why the Republicans won the House when Biden got "6-7 million more votes than Trump, the only UPTICK in White Males were in those 6-8 metro centers, nowhere else, so they won the House Districts as they should, but just with LARGER VOTES for the President in those few districts, which did not affect most House Districts.
So, in 2020 Biden "Won" even though Trump got a higher % of Blacks, Latinos and Women. But with Biden, he won a higher % of "White Male" vote to secure the victory, but how? Make it make sense !! How did Biden get 81 Million Votes but the Dems lost the House? Make it make sense !! OK
So, the Dems plan was to send out ballots to EVERYONE and by data mining they knew white males are the least likely to vote, so those STUFFED BALLOT BOXES were filled with white males who never or rarely voted. BUT ALAS, the cheat was not enough, Trump got 75 million votes so they had to shut it down and bring in more White Voters & anyone else, whom their data banks showed did not vote in 2020 and they voted for them over a few days period of time.
This is how you get anomalies like Biden's White Voter Percentage uptick gives him the victory, but guess what, that White Voter % only rose in those 6 to 7 places where Biden just so happened to need a higher % to win those Swing States (WINK WINK). BS Mr. Hand Man (Enter the Dragon Quote). Swings & Trends like that just do not happen in a few select spots ALL ACROSS the nation, that's just not how it works, people like Mark Halperin know this but are too big a cowards to admit this.
That is why the Republicans won the House when Biden got "6-7 million more votes than Trump, the only UPTICK in White Males were in those 6-8 metro centers, nowhere else, so they won the House Districts as they should, but just with LARGER VOTES for the President in those few districts, which did not affect most House Districts.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:50 am to JimEverett
This may be useful when comparing 2020 to 2024 EV in PA. Looks like 914,226 fewer EV ballots requested in 2024.
Pennsylvania Early Voting Turnout - Nov 3, 2020
Pennsylvania Early Voting Turnout - Nov 3, 2020
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:52 am to Big4SALTbro
quote:
I don’t see how they had a 1M vote firewall and barely won and yet now we think they only needed 500k
Did pay lose 500k people in 4 years?
500K additional early votes is probably only worth 75k to 100k votes, because many of those 500k would have voted on election day. The 75K to 100k I cite are the ones who would not have voted on election day, so their votes are incremental.
I think Biden won by 150K in 2020. (80,000 per Chris below)
This post was edited on 11/4/24 at 11:00 am
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:54 am to Penrod
quote:
I think Biden won by 150K in 2020.
80,555
Posted on 11/4/24 at 11:02 am to JimEverett
quote:
I thought the 500,000 number was before the 70-30 split. That would get them more in the area of replicating - proportionally - the 2020 vote.
The times I’ve seen it explained, 500k was the dem + other vote combined. I most definitely could have it wrong though.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 11:11 am to Big4SALTbro
quote:
Did pay lose 500k people in 4 years?
A bunch of day of voters moved to early voting.
So you have less available voters for day of.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 6:23 pm to anc
Thank you anc.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 6:27 pm to anc
quote:
There are only 230k outstanding ballots, so they can't just manufacture a victory.
In all of PA that’s all that is left??
And when you say that they had 1.1 million lead, when did they release early voting results?
Lastly, it really is too big to steal for the Ds at this point basically? Or at least seems to be?
Posted on 11/4/24 at 6:31 pm to TTOWN RONMON
quote:
That is why the Republicans won the House when Biden got "6-7 million more votes than Trump, the only UPTICK in White Males were in those 6-8 metro centers, nowhere else, so they won the House Districts as they should, but just with LARGER VOTES for the President in those few districts, which did not affect most House Districts.
Dems won the House in 2020.
But you’re right about them using Covid to harvest low/no propensity voters.
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