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re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted on 5/4/26 at 2:52 pm to BayouBengal51
Posted on 5/4/26 at 2:52 pm to BayouBengal51
1
Posted on 5/4/26 at 2:54 pm to BayouBengal51
I wonder if we are waiting to see if others will step up.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 2:57 pm to PaulDrake
quote:
At this point there is no chance of a surprise attack so what are we waiting for?
Deciding which and loading strike packages/coordinates into hundreds of 4th and 5th Gen fighters, along with fueling and arming anywhere from 4 to a dozen different munitions onto each takes time by itself. You have to get the pilots and support teams assembled and the maintainers on hand to prep the planes.
Each squadron has to have their forces divided up and individual and formation plans drilled down into the smallest detail. You don't want 100 fighters all flying to the same target or even area, they all have to have their own planning and individual plans per plane. You have to have a plan for the secondary units like the Blackhawks and A10s as far as close air support and defense.
All this has to be coordinated with destroyers and other naval assets that can also attack land based targets and have their own prep work and planning to do.
Then you have to have a ground, air, and sea air defense plan for the inevitable retaliation. All ready to go before you begin hostilities, because once it starts it'll be swift and deadly.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:01 pm to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
I wonder if we are waiting to see if others will step up.
We will be waiting a long time IMO. The UAE didn't really do anything last time until we had Iran contained and hiding under every rock possible, then they launched an attack on a Island off the coast of Iran. I seriously doubt they do anything now.
Also, I know Trump plays the media to not show his hand, but in an ABC interview today, he stopped short of saying the ceasefire was violated and that it was not a heavy bombing.... I'm kind of thinking WTF? I'm also surprised that retaliation has not started yet. I imagine Israel is just chewing through the bit, let alone chomping at it to resume the campaign.
This post was edited on 5/4/26 at 3:12 pm
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:05 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
So if someone is inclined to accept their case, what's the recommendation?
They think there is almost zero chance of regime change. The goal would be to reach the agreement that Oman and Iran had said was offered before: to "downblend" the 60% uranium to civilian uses.
In general, they think that Iran isn't a threat to the United States and is the problem of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
So...make a verifiable nuclear deal and reduce our footprint in the Middle East.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:14 pm to BayouBengal51
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:14 pm to IvoryBillMatt
quote:
reduce our footprint in the Middle East.
I’ll take “Things that will never happen as long as the Middle East has oil reserves” for a $1000, Alex..
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:16 pm to BayouBengal51
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Most likely activity against local IRGC backed militias.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:17 pm to BayouBengal51
quote:
intercepted 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, four drones launched..
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:21 pm to Eldodroptop
quote:
take “Things that will never happen as long as the Middle East has oil reserves” for a $1000, Alex..
I didn't say I agree with them or that their solution was likely.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:22 pm to IvoryBillMatt
quote:
In general, they think that Iran isn't a threat to the United States
As of this moment, they may be right. But the regime is working toward that goal, and they've been making inroads, along with China, in places like Venezuela. In other words, they have no plans to become a civilized nation that minds their own business. And Trump has no plans to let China/Iran continue threatening to destabilize the middle east or the Americas. It would be foolhardy to allow them to do so.
quote:
So...make a verifiable nuclear deal and reduce our footprint in the Middle East.
The regime has refused any discussion of a verifiable nuclear deal. Do the gentlemen have any feasible recommendations that don't allow a suicidal regime to continue funding violent militia around the world and acquire nuclear weapons?
This post was edited on 5/4/26 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:28 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
Do the gentlemen have any feasible recommendations that don't allow a suicidal regime to continue funding violent militia around the world and acquire nuclear weapons?
Not really.
The one point that was persuasive to me was the Iranian regime's willingness and ability to survive (irrespective of the pain inflicted on Iranian civilians).
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:30 pm to BayouBengal51
quote:One thing to keep in mind is that Iranian leadership is likely very fractured, with the right hand not knowing what the left hand is doing. It's possible the IRGC has calculated that restarting hostilities will give themselves a better chance to preserve or consolidate power than the current ceasefire state, where the citizens see no more visible signes of war yet their economy is getting progressively worse.
I'm also surprised that retaliation has not started yet.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:38 pm to BayouBengal51
You can also see some live traffic (and if you have an account drill down to see military only)
LINK https://www.flightradar24.com/26.47,51.07/6
LINK https://www.flightradar24.com/26.47,51.07/6
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:39 pm to IvoryBillMatt
quote:
The one point that was persuasive to me was the Iranian regime's willingness and ability to survive (irrespective of the pain inflicted on Iranian civilians).
Willingness is one thing, convincing 90 milllion people to follow your lead into oblivion is another. At least with non-nuclear Iran, the people have some say in how it ends. If you have a handful of radical Islamists holding a nuclear trigger, then their vote is the only one that matters.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:43 pm to wdhalgren
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:50 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
Willingness is one thing, convincing 90 milllion people to follow your lead into oblivion is another. At least with non-nuclear Iran, the people have some say in how it ends. If you have a handful of radical Islamists holding a nuclear trigger, then their vote is the only one that matters.
I'm with you all around.
I just think regime change will only come with American boots on the ground. I doubt most Americans will support the sacrifice and time that will take.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 4:13 pm to IvoryBillMatt
LINK
With Iranian forces attacking commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and oil infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, President Donald Trump on Monday stopped short of saying the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has been violated.
"[It was] not heavy firing," Trump said in a phone call with ABC News when asked if the ceasefire had been violated. "We'll let you know. Ships are moving. You know, we moved quite a few last night -- big ones. There was no firing. I guess there has been some recently. I'm looking into it."
With Iranian forces attacking commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and oil infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, President Donald Trump on Monday stopped short of saying the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has been violated.
"[It was] not heavy firing," Trump said in a phone call with ABC News when asked if the ceasefire had been violated. "We'll let you know. Ships are moving. You know, we moved quite a few last night -- big ones. There was no firing. I guess there has been some recently. I'm looking into it."
This post was edited on 5/4/26 at 4:14 pm
Posted on 5/4/26 at 4:19 pm to TroutGuy
Translated from Persian
More than 20 tankers are flying in the area.
During no moment of the 40-day war did half that number fly simultaneously.
More than 20 tankers are flying in the area.
During no moment of the 40-day war did half that number fly simultaneously.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 5/4/26 at 4:42 pm to TroutGuy
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