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re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:01 pm to
Posted by BayouBengal51
Forest Hill, Louisiana
Member since Nov 2006
11955 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

I wonder if we are waiting to see if others will step up.


We will be waiting a long time IMO. The UAE didn't really do anything last time until we had Iran contained and hiding under every rock possible, then they launched an attack on a Island off the coast of Iran. I seriously doubt they do anything now.

Also, I know Trump plays the media to not show his hand, but in an ABC interview today, he stopped short of saying the ceasefire was violated and that it was not a heavy bombing.... I'm kind of thinking WTF? I'm also surprised that retaliation has not started yet. I imagine Israel is just chewing through the bit, let alone chomping at it to resume the campaign.
This post was edited on 5/4/26 at 3:12 pm
Posted by IvoryBillMatt
Member since Mar 2020
11527 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:05 pm to
quote:

So if someone is inclined to accept their case, what's the recommendation? 


They think there is almost zero chance of regime change. The goal would be to reach the agreement that Oman and Iran had said was offered before: to "downblend" the 60% uranium to civilian uses.

In general, they think that Iran isn't a threat to the United States and is the problem of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

So...make a verifiable nuclear deal and reduce our footprint in the Middle East.
Posted by BayouBengal51
Forest Hill, Louisiana
Member since Nov 2006
11955 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:14 pm to
Posted by Eldodroptop
Member since Jul 2021
4027 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

reduce our footprint in the Middle East.


I’ll take “Things that will never happen as long as the Middle East has oil reserves” for a $1000, Alex..
Posted by BayouBengal51
Forest Hill, Louisiana
Member since Nov 2006
11955 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:16 pm to
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Most likely activity against local IRGC backed militias.
Posted by Eldodroptop
Member since Jul 2021
4027 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:17 pm to
quote:

intercepted 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, four drones launched..


Posted by IvoryBillMatt
Member since Mar 2020
11527 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:21 pm to
quote:

take “Things that will never happen as long as the Middle East has oil reserves” for a $1000, Alex..


I didn't say I agree with them or that their solution was likely.

Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
5893 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:22 pm to
quote:

In general, they think that Iran isn't a threat to the United States


As of this moment, they may be right. But the regime is working toward that goal, and they've been making inroads, along with China, in places like Venezuela. In other words, they have no plans to become a civilized nation that minds their own business. And Trump has no plans to let China/Iran continue threatening to destabilize the middle east or the Americas. It would be foolhardy to allow them to do so.

quote:

So...make a verifiable nuclear deal and reduce our footprint in the Middle East.


The regime has refused any discussion of a verifiable nuclear deal. Do the gentlemen have any feasible recommendations that don't allow a suicidal regime to continue funding violent militia around the world and acquire nuclear weapons?

This post was edited on 5/4/26 at 4:12 pm
Posted by IvoryBillMatt
Member since Mar 2020
11527 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:28 pm to
quote:

Do the gentlemen have any feasible recommendations that don't allow a suicidal regime to continue funding violent militia around the world and acquire nuclear weapons?


Not really.

The one point that was persuasive to me was the Iranian regime's willingness and ability to survive (irrespective of the pain inflicted on Iranian civilians).
Posted by TideCPA
Member since Jan 2012
14478 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:30 pm to
quote:

I'm also surprised that retaliation has not started yet.
One thing to keep in mind is that Iranian leadership is likely very fractured, with the right hand not knowing what the left hand is doing. It's possible the IRGC has calculated that restarting hostilities will give themselves a better chance to preserve or consolidate power than the current ceasefire state, where the citizens see no more visible signes of war yet their economy is getting progressively worse.
Posted by Pepperoni
Mar-a-Lago
Member since Aug 2013
4358 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:38 pm to
You can also see some live traffic (and if you have an account drill down to see military only)

LINK https://www.flightradar24.com/26.47,51.07/6
Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
5893 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:39 pm to
quote:

The one point that was persuasive to me was the Iranian regime's willingness and ability to survive (irrespective of the pain inflicted on Iranian civilians).


Willingness is one thing, convincing 90 milllion people to follow your lead into oblivion is another. At least with non-nuclear Iran, the people have some say in how it ends. If you have a handful of radical Islamists holding a nuclear trigger, then their vote is the only one that matters.
Posted by BayouBengal51
Forest Hill, Louisiana
Member since Nov 2006
11955 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:43 pm to
Posted by IvoryBillMatt
Member since Mar 2020
11527 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 3:50 pm to
quote:

Willingness is one thing, convincing 90 milllion people to follow your lead into oblivion is another. At least with non-nuclear Iran, the people have some say in how it ends. If you have a handful of radical Islamists holding a nuclear trigger, then their vote is the only one that matters.


I'm with you all around.

I just think regime change will only come with American boots on the ground. I doubt most Americans will support the sacrifice and time that will take.
Posted by TroutGuy
Member since Mar 2026
412 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 4:13 pm to
LINK

With Iranian forces attacking commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and oil infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, President Donald Trump on Monday stopped short of saying the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has been violated.

"[It was] not heavy firing," Trump said in a phone call with ABC News when asked if the ceasefire had been violated. "We'll let you know. Ships are moving. You know, we moved quite a few last night -- big ones. There was no firing. I guess there has been some recently. I'm looking into it."
This post was edited on 5/4/26 at 4:14 pm
Posted by TroutGuy
Member since Mar 2026
412 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 4:19 pm to
Translated from Persian
More than 20 tankers are flying in the area.

During no moment of the 40-day war did half that number fly simultaneously.
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Posted by MKP2004
Member since Mar 2026
1093 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 4:42 pm to
Posted by Sid E Walker
BackdoorU ©
Member since Nov 2013
25981 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 4:50 pm to
quote:

“Please ignore what you see with your lying eyes."

quote:

Senior Iranian Military Official: Iran has no plan to target the UAE - Iranian state media

Democrats and the IRGC are so much alike, it’s scary.
Posted by BayouBengal51
Forest Hill, Louisiana
Member since Nov 2006
11955 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 4:54 pm to
Hmmm, what a shame

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This post was edited on 5/4/26 at 4:55 pm
Posted by BayouBengal51
Forest Hill, Louisiana
Member since Nov 2006
11955 posts
Posted on 5/4/26 at 4:55 pm to
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