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re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted on 4/25/26 at 8:12 am to trinidadtiger
Posted on 4/25/26 at 8:12 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
They dont believe in this nonsense of being a martyr, if they did they would not have parked billions offshore.
That's been my working assumption all along. The leadership of these doctrinaire autocratic regimes, whether they espouse collectivism, divine guidance, whatever, virtually never believe their own propaganda.
This post was edited on 4/25/26 at 8:26 am
1
Posted on 4/25/26 at 8:27 am to wdhalgren
So what's the play here? Just keep relying on the blockade alone or bomb their power plants as well and accept their retaliation on Gulf oil infrastructure? I'd prefer the latter, but I can see the argument for the former. One Qatari plant controls 20% of global LNG supplies and is highly vulnerable to attack. I can see why Trump is reluctant to let that and the Saudi east-west pipeline be attacked. Still, we've already issued the power plant ultimatum and they've thumbed their nose at us, so it seems like our credibility requires that the threat be carried out.
This post was edited on 4/25/26 at 8:31 am
Posted on 4/25/26 at 8:34 am to Penrod
quote:
I think Trump has them where he wants them. Buying time is not an advantage for Iran. Their oil wells are about to shutin. And we are using the time to resupply. Them? I guess they are, but we are probably watching every move they make in order to replenish our list of targets.
Agree, In addition I hope that we're making it known that the moderates, whatever there are, and the innocent people know now is another time to step away and stand clear of any IRGC. Hell fire is going to be coming to Iran and as many good guys and innocent need to not be around the upcoming targets. I'm pretty certain they know this however.
Let's see how much resistance remains after another couple of weeks of targeted attacks.
Posted on 4/25/26 at 8:38 am to Victor R Franko
Posted on 4/25/26 at 8:44 am to BayouBengal51
Iran claims it was a glue factory that "caught fire".
They sure do have a lot of industrial fires in Iran......
They sure do have a lot of industrial fires in Iran......
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A fire broke out at a glue manufacturing plant in Alborz province, west of Tehran, according to Iranian news agencies.
Emergency crews were at the scene and carrying out firefighting operations, the reports said. No further details were immediately available on casualties or the cause of the fire.
Posted on 4/25/26 at 8:50 am to CitizenK
CitizenK,
I have a question I think your expertise can help answer. I'd respect your opinion, or anyone else that knows about these things.
When these Iranian wells start getting shutdown, some I've read will crater and maybe not be able to pump again, some may be ok. My question is, how long after shutdown might a well sour as to be inoperable again? The reason I'm asking is suppose this next road of slaughter continues into mid May. Then the second part of May we see clarity and IRGC dead or basically kaput. Iran people and moderates begin internal operations to rid themselves of their IRGC cancer. Suppose this phase lasts a minimum of 4-6 months. So I'm wondering would wells survive capping from now until next year before reopening and some pumping starts up again. Will 8 or 9 months be long enough to do the damage? Would they survive capping after 1 year?
I have a question I think your expertise can help answer. I'd respect your opinion, or anyone else that knows about these things.
When these Iranian wells start getting shutdown, some I've read will crater and maybe not be able to pump again, some may be ok. My question is, how long after shutdown might a well sour as to be inoperable again? The reason I'm asking is suppose this next road of slaughter continues into mid May. Then the second part of May we see clarity and IRGC dead or basically kaput. Iran people and moderates begin internal operations to rid themselves of their IRGC cancer. Suppose this phase lasts a minimum of 4-6 months. So I'm wondering would wells survive capping from now until next year before reopening and some pumping starts up again. Will 8 or 9 months be long enough to do the damage? Would they survive capping after 1 year?
Posted on 4/25/26 at 9:05 am to lsuconnman
quote:
The only potential hangup will be if they choose the wrong one and we are forced to restart the process of ensuring they receive the freedom they deserve.
Disagree. They're (Iranians) responsible for their own freedom if and after we remove the constraints of the IRGC and Mullahs. We stand by and maybe help upon request with the rebuilding portion, but not the politics. The Iranian PEOPLE need to carry on, not us or anyone else sticking their nose in it. Especially the UK and Europeans.
Posted on 4/25/26 at 9:05 am to BayouBengal51
Posted on 4/25/26 at 9:22 am to BayouBengal51
Posted on 4/25/26 at 9:28 am to BayouBengal51
Posted on 4/25/26 at 9:28 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/25/26 at 9:33 am to Victor R Franko
I was being sarcastic. The US will only allow them to choose their destiny if it does not conflict with our interests. There’s little chance we’ll leave them to their own odds, regardless of what the state department tweets.
But, I am with that Auburn guy about giving them all the drones they want to pursue self determination…I just don’t think they’ll use them in any way American’s envision.
But, I am with that Auburn guy about giving them all the drones they want to pursue self determination…I just don’t think they’ll use them in any way American’s envision.
Posted on 4/25/26 at 9:40 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/25/26 at 9:40 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/25/26 at 9:45 am to Victor R Franko
quote:
When these Iranian wells start getting shutdown, some I've read will crater and maybe not be able to pump again, some may be ok. My question is, how long after shutdown might a well sour as to be inoperable again? The reason I'm asking is suppose this next road of slaughter continues into mid May. Then the second part of May we see clarity and IRGC dead or basically kaput. Iran people and moderates begin internal operations to rid themselves of their IRGC cancer. Suppose this phase lasts a minimum of 4-6 months. So I'm wondering would wells survive capping from now until next year before reopening and some pumping starts up again. Will 8 or 9 months be long enough to do the damage? Would they survive capping after 1 year?
I'm not that knowledgeabe about downhole only that shut in wells usually sand up and need to be reworked. The US lost over2 million BPD production due Covid shut ins. These were stripper wells which were uneconomical to rework for a few barrels of oil per day for each well.
New fields in Iran have been developed half assed by the Chinese. There is a major field in SE Iran near the Pakistan border which has not been developed. My understanding is huge natural gas reserves there with some oil.
This post was edited on 4/25/26 at 9:47 am
Posted on 4/25/26 at 10:42 am to hawgfaninc
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If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian:
The enemy is attacking our infrastructure and putting us under siege so that people become dissatisfied.
We currently do not need the people's sacrifice, but we request that people reduce electricity and energy consumption.
For example, at home instead of having 10 lights on, let 2 lights be on. What is wrong with that?
Posted on 4/25/26 at 10:44 am to iron banks
quote:
Anyone that has paid even the slightest amount of attention realizes the regime is never going to agree to our demands.
The funny/sad part is most people think we have a ceasefire right now so that we can broker a peace deal. Most people think the Trump administration is being tricked into pausing the war.
How people can't see that we are waging a war right now that weakens the IRGC while we aren't taking any fire from the enemy.is simply depressing/hilarious.
Posted on 4/25/26 at 11:19 am to Victor R Franko
quote:
The Iranian PEOPLE need to carry on, not us or anyone else sticking their nose in it. Especially the UK and Europeans.
Hopefully the Iranian people are smart enough to not get advice from the UK, France, Spain, or other countries under the control of radical Islam.
Posted on 4/25/26 at 11:20 am to Victor R Franko
quote:
So I'm wondering would wells survive capping from now until next year before reopening and some pumping starts up again. Will 8 or 9 months be long enough to do the damage? Would they survive capping after 1 year?
Short answer is NO.
Medium answer.
It cost money to stop a well. You do not just hit an off button.
It also cost money to undo the damage that is done and that well will start to degrade from the moment flow is stopped.
How fast is the degradation? That depends on multiple variables, each well will will have a different timeline and a different cost.
Being shut in for a month could be the same for well one as 6 months for well two.
Cost of restarting is one issue and things such as corrosion which is time dependent matter. But there are also fixed cost that will happen if the shut in is simply for one day.
So I would say no. Their is basically not many months time line in play here.
Cost are high to shut in and the loss of production begin day one as the amount of oil that well can produce will start to drop almost immediately.
Posted on 4/25/26 at 11:30 am to hawgfaninc
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BREAKING: President Trump just told me over the phone he has unilaterally cancelled Witkoff and Kushner’s trip to Pakistan to meet with the Iranians.
"I've told my people a little while ago they were getting ready to leave, and I said, 'Nope, you're not making an 18 hour flight to go there. We have all the cards. They can call us anytime they want, but you're not going to be making any more 18 hour flights to sit around talking about nothing'."
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