re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

quote:

---

The current leader is a cardboard cutout who hasn’t been seen since day 1 of the war

---

And? The fact that IRGC commanders have a degree of independence not afforded to Arab militaries is, with respect to the region, a doctrinal revolution. A side-effect of the 'death by 1000 cuts' approach developed by Soleimani is that many junior IRGC commanders have frontline experience in Syria and Iraq and have an entirely different approach than the IRGC members who came of age during the Iran-Iraq War. The fact that they still have access to proxy militias from regions other than Iraq portends a more complicated situation than simply 'replacing the regime.'

The best immediate result would be to keep killing IRGC commanders until you find one who is willing to concede something or hope the Artesh lead a revolt. I think the administration knows the latter is a possibility, as they have not really targeted Artesh leaders and the intra-service rivalry is a much easier way of finding an armed faction to ensure regime change. I'm less convinced that IRGC internal factions will turn on one another, as other than the conscripted soldiers (another source of discontent), it seems that a soldier who willingly joins the IRGC is more likely to be a true believer. At the same time, given that the political class of Iran draws heavily from the IRGC officer corp, some self-interested commander could also see the writing on the wall.

I think there likely is a few mines here and there. They were able to launch them with their FAC without the need of a traditional minelayer. I think we know where they generally are and know it isn’t a major threat.

The French helped as well.

France provided vital gunpowder, money, uniforms, and thousands of skilled soldiers and sailors. French naval power was crucial, especially at the Battle of Yorktown.

quote:

---

International law

---

It seems to me that with the Prince and all the people against the regime, the US could find someone to load up the Iranians with weapons. If the CIA can't do that, especially with "92%" of the population behind them, I don't know what they are worth. If it were the other way around, russia and china would have the opposition carrying two AK47s each.

Early on they tried to get it into Iranian hands through the Kurds in the NW. Kurds kept a lot of it.

I have zero doubt that there are weapons in the hands of many, many civilians but the extent is curious

Just small arms or do they have shoulder mounts, mines, drones.

There's going to be a civil war, between the true IRGC hardliners and the civilians. Just questions about the extent and involvement of the US or Iran.

There's millions of young men that will gladly fight because the alternative is not good.

quote:

---

It seems to me that with the Prince and all the people against the regime, the US could find someone to load up the Iranians with weapons. If the CIA can't do that, especially with "92%" of the population behind them, I don't know what they are worth. If it were the other way around, russia and china would have the opposition carrying two AK47s each.

---

The problem is that the only real way we have to do anything like that at scale (since we no longer have a base in Afghanistan) is through the Iraqi Kurds. And we've simply let the Kurds down too many times now. In his first term, Trump didn't stop Turkey when Erdogan invaded the Kurdish part of Syria. Trump pointedly sat on his hands when the Iraqi Kurds made a bid for independence in 2017, letting the Iraqi federal government crush the idea and retake Kirkuk from the Kurds in the process.

Another problem is that most of the border that Iran has with the Iraqi KRG (Kurdish Regional Government) is the part of Iraqi Kurdistan controlled by the Talabani clan and the PUK, which has long been friendly with Iran. The KRG government is controlled by the Barzani family and the KDP, who would likely be more receptive to the idea, but they don't control the Iranian border.

Finally, there's the problem of how this would be perceived in Iran. Most Iranians want to keep their country in one piece and are highly skeptical of Kurdish separatism.

It's just not easy. Sure, the CIA could obviously land military equipment in the middle of nowhere in Iran for rebel groups to pick up, but there really aren't any rebel groups yet. There are lots of people who would like to be part of such a group, but they don't have any weapons or organization and would get wiped out.

It's kind of a catch 22.

Supposedly more IRGC officials have landed in Pakistan to join the the negotiations. If so, they may well as wrap up the talks, nothing will be achieved, especially if more hardliners join the process.

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.