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re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted on 4/11/26 at 12:35 pm to TroutGuy
Posted on 4/11/26 at 12:35 pm to TroutGuy
I've gained a LOT of respect for the UAE in this war- they have actually attacked Iran militarily, are boycotting the Pakistan talks and are making a "not even the licensing fee" offer to Iran. I do wonder what they are hinting at in the last sentence here- maybe mining Iran's portion of the Strait? That would screw both their oil income and toll income, so I'm hoping it happens.
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Posted on 4/11/26 at 12:49 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
What about the area where the strait is at its narrowest? Both Oman and Iran claim their territorial waters at 12 nautical miles, which is the international standard, and I think there might be a portion of the strait which falls within their waters and not internationally.
Can't block access for the other countries on the Gulf, incoming or outgoing, kind of like an easement:
quote:
Transit Passage Rights: Under international law (specifically UNCLOS, to which Iran is not a party but is bound by custom), ships and aircraft have the right of "transit passage," meaning coastal states cannot suspend or hamper transit through straits used for international navigation
Posted on 4/11/26 at 12:53 pm to phaz
I don't think Iran has ratified the law of the sea and what other punitive measures can you invoke on a country which you have already bombed out and sanctioned out? If they are bound by custom and not international law, as you link itself says, then if they consider the attacks by Israel and the US to be violations of international law, then I don't know if invoking international law to them is going to be a persuasive argument.
Posted on 4/11/26 at 1:14 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
I don't think Iran has ratified the law of the sea and what other punitive measures can you invoke on a country which you have already bombed out and sanctioned out? If they are bound by custom and not international law, as you link itself says, then if they consider the attacks by Israel and the US to be violations of international law, then I don't know if invoking international law to them is going to be a persuasive argument.
They ratified the previous version in 1958
Posted on 4/11/26 at 1:17 pm to CitizenK
quote:
They ratified the previous version in 1958
Yeah again, I don't think that is going to tip the scales for an Iranian government which already disregards international law.
Posted on 4/11/26 at 1:20 pm to TroutGuy
Same. They’ve been as secular, level headed, and rational in the international politics the whole time.
Posted on 4/11/26 at 1:21 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
I don't know if invoking international law to them is going to be a persuasive argument.
Once mines are cleared, there will be a path on the Omani side. They don't have any mine layers left. If countries would escort their ships, they have air defense systems for missiles and drones. Iran's capabilities are greatly degraded. Don't believe the Iranian propaganda. That is more about trying to convince their own supporters to not give up on them.
Posted on 4/11/26 at 1:28 pm to Shaun176
quote:
They don't have any mine layers left.
They weren't using mine layers, I don't think. They were rather using smaller craft from what I read.
quote:
If countries would escort their ships, they have air defense systems for missiles and drones.
Yeah dude, the risk is still going to be so high that I don't think insurers will be moved by the escorts. That is an extremely expensive proposition as well.
quote:
Iran's capabilities are greatly degraded.
For their drones, I don't think so. The heavier ordinance, yes, but drones are their bread and butter.
Posted on 4/11/26 at 1:40 pm to crazy4lsu
Posted on 4/11/26 at 1:40 pm to crazy4lsu
Posted on 4/11/26 at 1:46 pm to Huge Richard
quote:
it isn’t just 90%, as I told Konstanin on @triggerpod, it’s 92%
That's a big number and it bodes well, but it's not the relevant number. Overthrow of the regime won't be decided by election, so the outcome depends on how many are willing to take up arms when they become available, or resort to guerilla warfare using whatever tools and means are available. If a large enough percentage are willing to put their lives on the line, then the already weakened regime will go down.
Posted on 4/11/26 at 1:56 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
Overthrow of the regime won't be decided by election, so the outcome depends on how many are willing to take up arms
This is why there will be heavy propaganda about any ceasefire deal. The regime leaders have to look strong or risk fracturing.
Posted on 4/11/26 at 2:08 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
Overthrow of the regime won't be decided by election, so the outcome depends on how many are willing to take up arms when they become available, or resort to guerilla warfare using whatever tools and means are available. If a large enough percentage are willing to put their lives on the line, then the already weakened regime will go down.
And what if they decide they don't want to do that?
Posted on 4/11/26 at 2:12 pm to Shaun176
quote:
The regime leaders have to look strong or risk fracturing.
It's probable that the fracturing has already started. The rank and file of the IRCG are figuring out that they're the hunted now and they and their families are no longer safe walking the streets, or in their homes. The new leaders who have yet to establish their right to authority have to watch their backs 24/7. And there's no quick fix when the economy has been bombed into a depression.
Posted on 4/11/26 at 2:16 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
And what if they decide they don't want to do that?
If that happens, we'll see. It will be multiple years before the regime recovers from the pounding, so they'll be vulnerable to both internal and external forces for an extended period.
This post was edited on 4/11/26 at 2:19 pm
Posted on 4/11/26 at 2:24 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
If that happens, we'll see. It will be multiple years before the regime recovers from the pounding, so they'll be vulnerable to both internal and external forces for an extended period.
Sure, but for all the insistence that Iran is teetering, the regime appears really resilient.
Posted on 4/11/26 at 2:28 pm to crazy4lsu
You love you some fanatical Muslim dick.
Posted on 4/11/26 at 2:29 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Sure, but for all the insistence that Iran is teetering, the regime appears really resilient
The current leader is a cardboard cutout who hasn’t been seen since day 1 of the war
Posted on 4/11/26 at 2:36 pm to beerJeep
I think its the fact we are bombing rats in a house. Yes. The house is destroyed. But the rats?
Posted on 4/11/26 at 2:50 pm to beerJeep
quote:
The current leader is a cardboard cutout who hasn’t been seen since day 1 of the war
And? The fact that IRGC commanders have a degree of independence not afforded to Arab militaries is, with respect to the region, a doctrinal revolution. A side-effect of the 'death by 1000 cuts' approach developed by Soleimani is that many junior IRGC commanders have frontline experience in Syria and Iraq and have an entirely different approach than the IRGC members who came of age during the Iran-Iraq War. The fact that they still have access to proxy militias from regions other than Iraq portends a more complicated situation than simply 'replacing the regime.'
The best immediate result would be to keep killing IRGC commanders until you find one who is willing to concede something or hope the Artesh lead a revolt. I think the administration knows the latter is a possibility, as they have not really targeted Artesh leaders and the intra-service rivalry is a much easier way of finding an armed faction to ensure regime change. I'm less convinced that IRGC internal factions will turn on one another, as other than the conscripted soldiers (another source of discontent), it seems that a soldier who willingly joins the IRGC is more likely to be a true believer. At the same time, given that the political class of Iran draws heavily from the IRGC officer corp, some self-interested commander could also see the writing on the wall.
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