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re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted on 4/7/26 at 8:41 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/7/26 at 8:41 pm to hawgfaninc
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There's speculation that the statement posted by the Pakistani PM was drafted by the Americans. And along the same time the Pakistani FM posts an Islamic verse about asking for god's forgiveness (he regularly posts Islamic verses but the content and timing of this one makes you go hmmm)
Quite interesting, to say the least. As they say, we'll see.
This post was edited on 4/7/26 at 8:42 pm
1
Posted on 4/7/26 at 8:51 pm to Powerman
quote:
Let's let this play out before we get into your dumb fantasies about how anything works. I'm proud that Trump has shown restraint and glad that some idiot like you has no decision making capabilities.
I've never had the opportunity to say this (that I recall), so here it is: good post. I'm not sure if Trump is showing restraint as much as sticking to the plan. Either way, if this is where they wanted to be, then we'll see how it plays out and wait for the next phase. Any regular person assuming they know the best path forward is speculating, because they have less information than the President and his team.
This post was edited on 4/7/26 at 8:54 pm
Posted on 4/7/26 at 8:56 pm to Powerman
quote:
Let's let this play out before we get into your dumb fantasies about how anything works
You’re an idiot liberal.
Posted on 4/7/26 at 9:09 pm to WeeWee
(no message)
Posted on 4/7/26 at 9:15 pm to Powerman
quote:
Let's let this play out before we get into your dumb fantasies about how anything works.
Surprisingly, I agree with you. A lot going on with none of us in the know. Only speculation and mostly naysaying at the moment.
Posted on 4/7/26 at 9:22 pm to hawgfaninc
quote:
The “ceasefire” isn’t the end of our military operation. It’s the beginning of Phase Two.
Posted on 4/7/26 at 9:28 pm to LSUAlum2001
Why are we at war.
There are many reasons. 3 really big ones.
1. No Nukes
2. Hamstring China
3. Petrodollar
Despite what others think the highest ranked of those 3 is actually #3. But all are huge.
There are a host of other reasons as well such as a removal of Iran as a terrorist state with many proxies.
#3 is what makes me believe that we will stop at nothing to remove this regime. That one is probably non-negotiable.
There are many reasons. 3 really big ones.
1. No Nukes
2. Hamstring China
3. Petrodollar
Despite what others think the highest ranked of those 3 is actually #3. But all are huge.
There are a host of other reasons as well such as a removal of Iran as a terrorist state with many proxies.
#3 is what makes me believe that we will stop at nothing to remove this regime. That one is probably non-negotiable.
Posted on 4/7/26 at 9:29 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/7/26 at 9:30 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/7/26 at 9:30 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/7/26 at 9:33 pm to hawgfaninc
Sadly I don’t think any of that is going to happen. I’m holding out hope this ceasefire can lead to a permanent deal but we’re not negotiating with rational actors.
Posted on 4/7/26 at 9:51 pm to TakingStock
quote:
we’re not negotiating with rational actors.
Which is why Trump really needed to show that he was willing to go through with it this time. He's given them a handful of extensions and ultimatums, it's time to put up or shut up.
Otherwise what keeps them from just holding out a few weeks next time? What brings them to the negotiation at the weakest, instead of puffing their chests out knowing all they have to do is upset America's economy slightly to shut it down?
I was hoping and assumed we'd hit a singular power plant right at 8pm, then pull away and issue stark warnings to Iran to put the ball in their court. For every day the strait is closed, we take out another. For every attack on your neighbors, we take out another. Every ballistic missile launched by your forces or Hezbollah/Houthis equals one bridge.
You can do nothing offensive and negotiate in good faith, and nothing else will be touched by US and Israeli bombs - or you can choose to end your country. You decide.
This would've essentially washed Trump's hands of being seen as the aggressor and put the onus of peace on the IRGC
Posted on 4/7/26 at 9:53 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/7/26 at 9:55 pm to hawgfaninc
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A two-week ceasefire has now taken effect. The Strait of Hormuz will be opened, followed by Iranian-American talks in Islamabad by the end of the week. The war has paused temporarily but not ended yet, and the Iranian acceptance statement made that explicit by stating: "This does not mean the end of the war."
?? The military outcomes just before entering these talks are starkly clear. The United States and Israel destroyed Iran's navy, missile production capabilities, air defenses, and the infrastructure of its nuclear program. Iran's military power has become a mere fraction of what it was on February 28. The pilot rescue operation provided decisive visual proof of the extent of American and Israeli dominance over Iranian sovereignty.
?? Iran has one realistic but solitary political gain in its quiver. The regime has survived so far, has not formally surrendered, and its new representatives will arrive in Islamabad with a ten-point plan instead of as a defeated party dictated terms to. This framework is vital for the Iranian narrative, but it's a seat at the table bought at an exorbitantly high price.
?? Iran agreed to the ceasefire after exhausting its economic weapon. Its chokehold on the Strait was the only pressure card that actually moved markets and squeezed Trump. But conceding it in exchange for a two-week bombing halt is exactly what Tehran had tried to avoid for its five weeks.
?? Talk of a two-million-dollar transit fee per ship through the Strait, as mentioned in the Iranian plan, is just a propaganda clause, since no country, insurance company, or international body would accept it. It's a clause included only so the Revolutionary Guard can maintain an image of continued Iranian dominance over Hormuz, rather than portraying the Strait's opening as a retreat in the face of decisive American pressure.
?? Trump's administration of the war wasn't politically flawless. It issued deadline after deadline, threatened to destroy an "entire civilization," then extended the deadline, then threatened again. This approach gave Iran the chance to bolster its narrative. Had the pressure campaign been more disciplined, Washington would have reached this point weeks ago.
?? But this fumbling didn't alter the reality of the essential coordination. Netanyahu and Trump kept open lines of communication throughout, and both are entering the Islamabad talks convinced they hold enough remaining pressure cards to extract further concessions on their core conditions—and both are ready for another round if the talks fail to deliver the desired results.
?? Iran presents Lebanon's inclusion in the ceasefire as a gain wrested from Israel. The facts on the ground say exactly the opposite. Israel entered the war occupying five border points, and today it sits on nearly 30% of south Lebanon with massive population displacement and near-total absence of Hezbollah south of the Litani. The ceasefire doesn't obligate it to withdraw, nor to completely halt assassinations as happened previously. Israel will agree to a cessation of fighting in Lebanon because it achieved what it wanted on the ground and doesn't need an extra day to cement it. What Iran calls a gain is in truth a consolidation of the Israeli gain.
?? On March 10, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rejected this governing framework for the ceasefire decision by name: temporary ceasefire, then negotiations, then resumption of war—and described it as a "trap." That stance held for just 28 days.
?? The regime hasn't changed its convictions; its options ran out, so it changed its language.
Posted on 4/7/26 at 9:56 pm to hawgfaninc
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Pretty much all media and political commentary regarding the Iranian mullahs leaves out the very important fact that they are all “Twelver Shias” and deeply devoted to the idea that someone known as the Twelfth Imam will arise from a well in Qom, Iran to precipitate the Apocalypse and convert the entire world (what is left of it) to Islam.
It is not an exaggeration to say that the mullahs’ likely purpose in trying to obtain nuclear weapons was to use them aggressively in order to precipitate the Twelfth Imam’s appearance, starting with the Great Satan and the Little Satan as their targets.
This was not like North Korea getting nukes, which, despite how crazy that country is, was an act of rational self-preservation for a diabolical regime. Iran was not seeking nuclear weapons for rational reasons.
Everything about Trump’s actions must be understood in this context.
It is quite possible that Donald Trump just saved humanity.
(Scoff all you want, but before you scoff, study up on the Twelver mullahs and the fanatical nature of their beliefs.)
Posted on 4/7/26 at 9:57 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/7/26 at 9:59 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/7/26 at 10:00 pm to hawgfaninc
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Senior Israeli diplomatic source:
"The United States coordinated the temporary ceasefire with Israel in advance.
This is a move in which Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz without receiving any of its prior demand, such as a commitment to a permanent end to the war, compensation, or the lifting of heavy sanctions.
Senior officials in the Trump administration made clear to Israel that during the negotiations set to take place over the next two weeks, the U.S. will firmly insist on the removal of nuclear material, a halt to enrichment, and the elimination of the ballistic missile threat.
These are shared objectives of both Israel and the United States.
Iran has backed down from its demands and conceded to opening the strait under the intense pressure of sustained strikes on regime infrastructure since the outbreak of the war, especially in recent days."
Posted on 4/7/26 at 10:02 pm to hawgfaninc
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I just think it's a mistake to view this as any other Trump negotiation.
Other Trump negotiations don't end up in 5.5 week military operations lol.
If Iran was ready to negotiate, we could've avoided 6 weeks of bombing them senseless.
And there is quite literally zero public evidence to suggest that any of this has changed.
This isn't me coming down on Trump. He didn't agree to anything real.
But I think people are making a mistake in their analysis if they think this is the end or the beginning of the end.
There's another shoe that's gonna drop, almost certainly.
Posted on 4/7/26 at 10:04 pm to hawgfaninc
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This is a victory for the United States that President Trump and our incredible military made happen.
From the very beginning of Operation Epic Fury, President Trump estimated this would be a 4-6 week operation.
Thanks to the unbelievable capabilities of our warriors, we have achieved and exceeded our core military objectives in 38 days.
More on that tomorrow morning from @SecWar and Chairman Caine!
The success of our military created maximum leverage, allowing President Trump and the team to engage in tough negotiations that have now created an opening for a diplomatic solution and long-term peace.
Additionally, President Trump got
the Strait of Hormuz reopened.
Never underestimate President Trump’s ability to successfully advance America’s interests and broker peace.
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