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re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:37 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:37 am to hawgfaninc
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IMPORTANT UPDATE: TRUMP IS BYPASSING THE IRGC
Turns out Trump was saying the truth, but there's context
The U.S is negotiating with Iran, this wasn't a bluff
But Iran, as expected, is no longer one entity under one leadership
The IRGC, more hardline and ideological, seem hell-bent on continuing this war, as they feel they have the upper hand.
They rejected Trump's claim of ongoig negotiations, and now announced they will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.
In the meantime we are getting reports that a U.S. delegation is meeting an Iranian delegation in Pakistan, completely bypassing the IRGC
This is a form of regime change, taking power away from the IRGC.
This could go one of two ways:
1. After enough pressure and bombing, the IRGC fold and accept concessions, losing their grip on the country. This would be GREAT news for Iran and the world
2. The IRGC remain defiant, fighting for their survival, potentially militarily overthrowing the more moderate executive branch of the country
This is an extremely important and sensitive period for Iran, Israel and the Middle East
I hope Trump can pull it off
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:38 am to hawgfaninc
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The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is demanding a broad set of concessions before agreeing to end the conflict:
It wants a new arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz that would allow Iran to control access and collect transit fees from passing ships.
At the same time, it is insisting on firm guarantees that the war would not restart, along with an end to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah.
The group is also calling for the closure of U.S. military bases in the Gulf and financial compensation for the damage Iran has suffered during the war.
Source: WSJ
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:40 am to BayouBengal51
quote:
To be fair to them, it's kind of hard for them to stay on message because each new rep gets turned into a corpse fairly quickly.
Luckily for them, most of their propaganda is being disseminated from the US.
This post was edited on 3/23/26 at 11:41 am
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:46 am to hawgfaninc
quote:
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is demanding a broad set of concessions before agreeing to end the conflict:
It wants a new arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz that would allow Iran to control access and collect transit fees from passing ships.
At the same time, it is insisting on firm guarantees that the war would not restart, along with an end to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah.
The group is also calling for the closure of U.S. military bases in the Gulf and financial compensation for the damage Iran has suffered during the war.
Source: WSJ
interesting since oman should also control half of the strait. I wonder if they have the drones and missiles to back up not agreeing to a deal.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:46 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:47 am to WeeWee
quote:
Kushner is tight with the Arab countries and Israel. I have no idea why a Jewish man is the go to person for the Arab countries but he is.
From what I understand, Kushner and MBS were classmates in college. They are friends.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:47 am to hawgfaninc
Why would they be making demands if they aren’t in negotiations?
By the way, I think the Iranian people look to be getting shanked if this is all true.
By the way, I think the Iranian people look to be getting shanked if this is all true.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:47 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:47 am to hawgfaninc
quote:
signaling potential de-escalation that could lift crypto prices by easing global risk.
So he bet that crypto prices would go up? And this is supposed to mean a bet on the war ending? All very opaque to me.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:48 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:49 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:51 am to wdhalgren
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:53 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:53 am to hawgfaninc
I'm sure they will give a stern wag of the finger to the Iranian ambassador. Remember, the UK is one of the few Western nations yet to designate the IRGC as terrorists.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:56 am to hawgfaninc
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If tweet fails to load, click here. That is not the plan. If it was the plan then you would not be talking about the plan. Stick to the plan man.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 12:00 pm to BayouBengal51
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In the heart of Tehran: The Air Force, guided by Military Intelligence, struck the central security headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards, which was embedded within civilian infrastructure.
The headquarters served the Revolutionary Guards for coordinating the district units responsible for enforcing the regime's order and internal security. Additionally, the Iranian terror regime commanded battalions of the Basij unit from the attacked headquarters.
Prior to the strike, numerous measures were taken to minimize harm to civilians, including the use of precision weaponry, aerial observations, and additional intelligence information.
The strike on the headquarters is part of deepening the impact on the regime's core systems and its security capabilities.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 12:02 pm to TulsaSooner78
quote:
Kushner is tight with the Arab countries and Israel. I have no idea why a Jewish man is the go to person for the Arab countries but he is.
From what I understand, Kushner and MBS were classmates in college. They are friends.
They did not go to the same university.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 12:24 pm to WeeWee
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"As I announced earlier, based on preliminary conversations between the United States and Iran over the past two days, I've directed the @DeptofWar to temporarily postpone planned strikes against major energy and electricity targets in Iran...to determine whether a broader agreement can be reached," says @POTUS on Operation Epic Fury.
"Now, Iran has one more opportunity to end its threats to America and our allies, and we hope they take it. Either way, America and the entire world will soon be much safer."
Posted on 3/23/26 at 12:40 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 3/23/26 at 12:46 pm to hawgfaninc
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We firmly believe there are ongoing US-Iran "peace deal" talks right now:
Why? Because we have seen this EXACT sequence of events MULTIPLE times in previous deals negotiated by President Trump.
In fact, the May 2025 China trade deal followed the exact same timeline.
On April 24th, 2025, just 15 days after the "90-day tariff pause," which also came as the 10Y Note Yield soared above 4.45%, President Trump made similar claims about China, and China responded like Iran just did.
Trump said China was interested in a "trade deal" with the US, and China responded stating that "there are absolutely no negotiations between the US and China."
Just 3 weeks later, on May 12th, 2025, the US and China announced their first trade deal, reducing tariffs to a 30% baseline.
We believe a similar situation is happening right now with Iran, behind closed doors.
As Iran's war strategy has become to play the “long game” and pressure the US/Israel through capital and energy markets, Iran does not want to lose leverage and allow markets to normalize until a definitive deal has been solidified.
This is the same exact form of leverage that China had in April 2025 negotiations, which they initially denied, as the 10Y Note Yield broke above 4.50% and US equity markets collapsed.
We believe Trump is following the same playbook now.
That said, volatility will persist until there is a clear agreement in place, and broader market normalization after this historic shock will take months.
Pattern-based trading has become incredibly profitable over the last 12 months, and we continue to update our models as a result. Bookmark this post.
Keep following the patterns.
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