re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

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To the international community and friends of Iran:

Tomorrow evening, March 17, my compatriots across Iran will celebrate Chaharshanbe Suri in their alleys and neighborhoods. Chaharshanbe Suri is our ancient fire festival of joy and renewal, a cherished tradition rooted in our civilization for millennia.

The regime has issued threats of deadly force to suppress these peaceful celebrations and prevent the Iranian people from honoring their heritage.

I urge you to keep your eyes on Iran. Do not allow the regime to use violence against the people determined to celebrate life, light, and hope in the face of darkness.

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LEBANON: THE NORTHERN FRONT IS EXPANDING

The Lebanon front also escalated further. Israeli forces expanded ground operations in southern Lebanon and reportedly encircled Khiyam, pushing westward toward the Litani River. This represents a larger ground posture than earlier border operations and indicates Israel is attempting to shape the battlefield against Hezbollah rather than simply retaliating against rocket launches.

At the same time, Hezbollah continued firing rockets and drones toward northern Israel, maintaining pressure on the northern front even after suffering extensive infrastructure losses earlier in the war. Israel has continued heavy strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon, including operational sites and logistical facilities tied to the group’s missile network.

The northern theater now appears to be entering a phase of attrition and positional pressure, rather than the limited cross border exchanges that characterized earlier weeks.

*? IRAQ: PROXY PRESSURE ON THE UNITED STATES CONTINUES

Iran aligned militias continued attacks on U.S. positions across Iraq. Over the past several days these groups have launched drones and rockets against American bases and diplomatic infrastructure, including a missile strike on the helipad area of the U.S. embassy compound in Baghdad. These attacks serve two purposes:

??First, they impose direct costs on U.S. operations in the region.
??Second, they force the United States to divert resources toward base defense and interception missions.

Even when damage is limited, the attacks expand the battlefield and complicate the operational environment for U.S. forces.

*? IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACKS CONTINUE

Iran continued launching missiles toward Israel during this period. Several salvos targeted southern Israel and the Negev region, triggering repeated air raid alerts.
Despite continued launches, the overall military impact of these attacks appears limited. Israeli air defense systems including Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and U.S. systems such as THAAD have maintained high interception rates.

Iran is still able to launch missiles and drones, but the sustained strikes on launchers, command centers, and production facilities appear to be reducing the scale of its barrages compared to the opening days of the war.

*? WASHINGTON: TRUMP SIGNALS A LONGER STRATEGIC GAME

The political messaging from Washington over the past 48 hours has also clarified the broader strategic direction. Publicly, Trump has suggested the war could end soon and that most major Iranian targets have already been struck. Operationally, however, the signals point toward preparation for a longer campaign. Washington has begun pushing for a multinational coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz, urging countries that depend on Gulf energy flows to participate in maritime security operations.

At the same time, the United States has been careful not to push escalation to the point of triggering a global energy shock. This balancing act helps explain why certain targets, such as Kharg Island’s export terminal, have been threatened but not completely destroyed. The strategic posture appears to be:

??sustain pressure on Iran’s military capability
??protect global energy flows
??avoid triggering a catastrophic oil price spike

Israel’s priorities are somewhat different. Israel is focused primarily on maximizing military degradation of Iran and Hezbollah, even if that increases regional escalation risks. The dynamic between Washington’s economic caution and Israel’s military pressure is likely to shape the next phase of the conflict.

*? WHAT CHANGED IN THE LAST 48 HOURS

Three developments stand out:

??First, the Gulf economic front is becoming central to the war. Drone incidents near Dubai and Fujairah show that the conflict is now directly touching regional infrastructure and global energy flows.
??Second, Israel continues to widen the battlefield rather than narrow it. Deep strikes inside Iran and expanded operations in Lebanon suggest the campaign is still in a degradation phase.
??Third, the United States is beginning to shift toward coalition management of the conflict, particularly around Hormuz, while trying to prevent the war from triggering a global energy crisis.

In short, the war is evolving from a direct military confrontation into a broader struggle over regional stability, energy flows, and long term strategic balance in the Middle East.

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IRGC NAVAL HEADQUARTERS DISMANTLED

In a precise strike last week, the IAF dismantled the headquarters used by senior naval commanders to manage operations and advance international maritime terrorist activities.

The IRGC’s Navy is responsible for terror attacks on civilian vessels and for arming proxy terrorist groups by transferring weapons by sea.

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Not sure we anticipated the strait issues

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I can’t help it, I absolutely love this SOB…

“Not perfect, but it’s France”

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