re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

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NEW | Special Report: The war in Iran is currently in a phase in which the military trajectory is relatively positive: the United States is steadily destroying Iran’s ability to use its most essential tool in the war — drone and missile attacks — which in turn underpin the entire Iranian strategy.

Iran has still done some damage to US forces, and it is still firing drones and missiles, though the overall attack rate is slowly decreasing. These attacks still pale in comparison to the major attacks Iran sought to conduct in an existential war and have caused neither operationally significant damage nor widespread casualties.

The US-Israeli combined force will need time to achieve its military objectives and prevent Iran from inflicting further political and economic pain upon the United States and its allies in the region, but the campaign remains incomplete, and it is too soon to forecast its outcome. Declaring it an operational failure is unquestionably premature.

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Every country has officially declined until hostilities are ended. These are word games to say they might help us escort tankers when escorts are no longer needed. The market knows better.

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Now dat's a lid!

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Serious signs of internal crisis are emerging inside the Islamic Republic’s security forces.

Desertions, executions, and deep mistrust are reportedly spreading within the regime’s power structure.

? Reports say members of the regime’s forces who have distanced themselves from the system are being punished, raising new questions about loyalty within the Islamic Republic’s military and security institutions.

? Reports of punishments and even executions of deserters have drawn renewed attention to the internal condition of the regime’s power structure. Analysts say this may reflect growing concern about declining loyalty among forces meant to sustain the regime.

? Desertions are reportedly highest in provinces like Isfahan and Tabriz, and the problem is not limited to lower ranks. Cases are emerging across different levels of the security structure.

? Field reports describe breakdowns in communication and coordination, with growing confusion and disorganization within units.

? Many personnel reportedly feel they are being used as cannon fodder and human shields while senior commanders flee or protect themselves.

? Severe economic hardship among soldiers and security personnel is also fueling discontent. Many have reportedly gone months without salaries or benefits.

? The level of infiltration and internal rupture within the security forces is described as so extensive that these institutions are undergoing deep internal upheaval.

? Mistrust and suspicion inside the regime’s security structures are said to be at their highest levels.

? A security source says significant numbers of IRGC personnel have fled or attempted to flee. Search operations have reportedly begun to locate missing members, and in some cases families of deserters have been placed under house arrest.

One source warns that when this crisis settles, many may be shocked at how weakened the regime’s repression apparatus has become.

It may only be a matter of time before the system begins collapsing from within.

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I have just spoken with Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian.

I called on him to put an immediate end to the unacceptable attacks Iran is carrying out against countries in the region, whether directly or through proxies, including in Lebanon and Iraq. I reminded him that France is acting within a strictly defensive framework aimed at protecting its interests, its regional partners, and freedom of navigation, and that it is unacceptable for our country to be targeted.

The unchecked escalation we are witnessing is plunging the entire region into chaos, with major consequences today and for the years to come. The people of Iran, like those across the region, are paying the price.

Only a new political and security framework can ensure peace and security for all. Such a framework must guarantee that Iran never acquires nuclear weapons, while also addressing the threats posed by its ballistic missile programme and its destabilising activities regionally and internationally.

Freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz must be restored as soon as possible.

I also urged the Iranian President to allow Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris to return safely to France as soon as possible. Their ordeal has gone on for far too long, and they belong with their loved ones.

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