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Message
1
Posted on 8/9/24 at 7:46 am to TN Tygah
quote:
Rasmussen polls are bad. Betting odds on real clear politics have Kamala with a 1 or 2 point advantage.
You are aware that betting odds are different than polls right ?
Posted on 8/9/24 at 7:47 am to captainFid
Plus the Walz stuff is just now getting going with people promising more to come. I hope they actually hold it for after the DNC if there is.
Posted on 8/9/24 at 7:55 am to Goforit
I hope so but Rasmussen polls more often than not lean Republican. Yesterday I checked out the betting odds, Lott and Stossel, and Harris is ahead. As long as her handlers keep her under wraps, there's not much chance the voting public will get to hear how completely incompetent she is as presidential material. It's unfathomable that voters, due to their intense dislike of Trump, will vote for someone who has no track record, was not elected in a primary and who's values do not represent the majority of the American people.
As for the polls, let's remember that Hilliary was the favorite.
As for the polls, let's remember that Hilliary was the favorite.
Posted on 8/9/24 at 8:01 am to The Torch
quote:
have you ever been polled ?
5 times in the past 4 years (all after 2020 election)
I tend to lie my arse off. Say I am republican (I am not) and say I plan on voting for the democrat candidate
Only time I was 100% honest was when I was questioned about "women healthcare amd reproductive rights"
I couldn't lie about killing babies
Posted on 8/9/24 at 8:03 am to TigerFanatic99
Even Kamala admits that she is the underdog meaning that she is losing.
Posted on 8/9/24 at 8:11 am to Gifman
quote:
You are aware that betting odds are different than polls right ?
I only go by betting odds. Much more reliable than the polls
Posted on 8/9/24 at 8:15 am to TN Tygah
quote:
I only go by betting odds. Much more reliable than the polls
Remember, Vegas isn't trying to get it right, they're just trying to make money
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:02 am to TN Tygah
quote:The hell they are. They had Hillary up big until about 7pm central in 2016. They just had Shapiro as the favorite to be the vp nominee until very late the day before she announced. Burgum was the favorite for a long time for vp with Trump.
I only go by betting odds. Much more reliable than the polls
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:20 am to Goforit
But muh concern trolls told me Trump is flailing and needs to change strategy
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:29 am to TigerFanatic99
quote:
Every other poll out there, for the most part, tells a completely different story, but they are all wrong. This one... THIS is the right one!
Latest CNBC poll had Trump up 2. Harris got her bump but is now trending downward as people focus more on her and a lot of negative info on Walz coming out.
I think the Walz selection is really hurting her. It’s a bad choice, there’s not a moderate policy between her or him to sway independents/moderates. They’re pretty far left on every issue while a lot of Trumps stances are fairly middle of the road regardless of how far right the media attempts to portray him
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:38 am to deltaland
There's no way in hell Trump doesn't have a double digit lead on her right now.
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:40 am to TigerFanatic99
quote:
Every other poll out there, for the most part, tells a completely different story, but they are all wrong. This one... THIS is the right one!
Many of those other polls are using days older data. Rasmussen Poll is also one of the few polls that uses Likely Voters vs. Registered Voters - Which makes a significant difference.
That said, if Trump can't learn to focus his intellect, stop going off script every chance he gets, failing to fully prepare for debates, getting easily distracted by sideshows, etc VS. attacking the multiple, abject failures Kamala has left in her wake then we might lose this race. Only a man like Trump would manage to lose against these leftist dolts. It should be like fish in a barrel.
He has 3 months to reach independent voters. They will determine this election.
This post was edited on 8/9/24 at 9:42 am
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:44 am to longtooth
quote:Not when there are 2 months of early voting. Registered voters are coaxed to vote unlike in years past. Hell, in Wisconsin, unregistered adults can become likely voters because of same day registration.
Likely Voters vs. Registered Voters - Which makes a significant difference
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:46 am to TigerFanatic99
quote:
Every other poll out there, for the most part, tells a completely different story, but they are all wrong. This one... THIS is the right one!
The CNBC poll released at the same time as Rasmussen are in general agreement. Trump is leading.
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:48 am to Goforit
The nice thing about Rasmussen is they are totally transparent and they only receive funding from subscribers.
Here is Rasmussen's breakdown of their last poll:
Here is Rasmussen's breakdown of their last poll:
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:53 am to Jake88
I would recommend that people go back and look at other pollsters final polls versus the final results. You would not hold the main stream pollsters in such high regard.
For example NBC, YouGov, and the WSJ were off 5.5 points in 2020. Quinnipiac was off 6.5 points off.
Rasmussen was off 3.5.
The best polls in 2020 were IBD and HarrisX. They were 0.5 off.
For example NBC, YouGov, and the WSJ were off 5.5 points in 2020. Quinnipiac was off 6.5 points off.
Rasmussen was off 3.5.
The best polls in 2020 were IBD and HarrisX. They were 0.5 off.
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:55 am to Bigdawgb
quote:
Remember, Vegas isn't trying to get it right, they're just trying to make money
Vegas typically gets it right.
Posted on 8/9/24 at 10:02 am to Goforit
how reliable/accurate has Rasmussen been in the past?
Posted on 8/9/24 at 10:44 am to Jake88
quote:
The hell they are. They had Hillary up big until about 7pm central in 2016. They just had Shapiro as the favorite to be the vp nominee until very late the day before she announced. Burgum was the favorite for a long time for vp with Trump.
When it comes to GE I think Vegas has gotten it wrong once ever since they started doing it.
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