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Message
New PA poll: Donald Trump: 48.4% Joe Biden: 45.5 %
Posted on 10/27/20 at 6:46 am
Posted on 10/27/20 at 6:46 am
LINK
The same poll had Biden in the lead less than two weeks ago. Why? InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery explained why things have moved in Trump’s favor:
“These results indicate a stark shift in the contest. Our last survey of Pennsylvania showed Joe Biden leading Trump by three points. But that survey was before the last debate. Since the debate Trump has picked up support from younger voters, who based on our prior survey strongly oppose future lockdowns over Covid-19 spikes. Trump has also bolstered his lead among male voters by some twelve points. Biden continues to hold a seven point advantage over Trump among female voters. It would be nothing more than mere conjecture to attempt to correlate Biden’s statements on energy and fracking in the last debate contest with the shift towards Trump in this survey. However, Trump saw gains even among senior voters which have not been his strong suit this election cycle. That suggest that some issue or set of events has caused a late shift in the contest.”
The same poll had Biden in the lead less than two weeks ago. Why? InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery explained why things have moved in Trump’s favor:
“These results indicate a stark shift in the contest. Our last survey of Pennsylvania showed Joe Biden leading Trump by three points. But that survey was before the last debate. Since the debate Trump has picked up support from younger voters, who based on our prior survey strongly oppose future lockdowns over Covid-19 spikes. Trump has also bolstered his lead among male voters by some twelve points. Biden continues to hold a seven point advantage over Trump among female voters. It would be nothing more than mere conjecture to attempt to correlate Biden’s statements on energy and fracking in the last debate contest with the shift towards Trump in this survey. However, Trump saw gains even among senior voters which have not been his strong suit this election cycle. That suggest that some issue or set of events has caused a late shift in the contest.”
This post was edited on 10/27/20 at 6:51 am
20
Posted on 10/27/20 at 6:48 am to GumboPot
"I'm going to transition oil, yes."
Posted on 10/27/20 at 6:50 am to GumboPot
Did any polls have Trump favored in PA last go around? Maybe Rasmussen?
Posted on 10/27/20 at 6:50 am to GumboPot
Margin of error 4.9%?
So Trump 55%+ is what you're saying...
So Trump 55%+ is what you're saying...
Posted on 10/27/20 at 6:50 am to GumboPot
quote:
“Trump also continues to hold about 14% of the African American vote in this survey. In twenty years of polling, and as one who has polled Pennsylvania many times, I have never seen a Republican candidate consistently hold these type of numbers among black voters this close to an election. And this appears to be a developing trend in numerous states.”
Posted on 10/27/20 at 6:51 am to BozemanTiger
PA going red to the chagrin of Blitzer and ilk 
Posted on 10/27/20 at 6:52 am to HurricaneTiger
quote:
I'm going to transition oil, yes.
It's always sexual with these deviants.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 6:52 am to GumboPot
I'm all in with you GP but only 400 voters polled with a 4.9 MOE doesn't really settle my nerves a whole lot.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 6:55 am to Homesick Tiger
quote:
I'm all in with you GP but only 400 voters polled with a 4.9 MOE doesn't really settle my nerves a whole lot.
Polls should be looked at as trend indicator, not individually as a snapshot prediction. All polls seem to be tightening, meaning Trump seems to be closing in.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 6:56 am to Homesick Tiger
The numbers may not be totally accurate, but it does seem to confirm the tightening trend.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 6:57 am to Homesick Tiger
This was posted yesterday and is a weak effort at polling PA.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 7:01 am to GumboPot
Some day you will find me...
Posted on 10/27/20 at 7:02 am to Homesick Tiger
That’s what stood out to me, too.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 7:03 am to Ssubba
quote:
have never seen a Republican candidate consistently hold these type of numbers among black voters this close to an election. And this appears to be a developing trend in numerous states.”
Black men know real. If Trump can get 15%-ish pct of the black votez I don't see how Biden has any chance of winning.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 7:04 am to GumboPot
LANDSLIDE
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Posted on 10/27/20 at 7:05 am to Jack Ruby
quote:
If Trump can get 15%-ish pct of the black votez
He'll get more
Posted on 10/27/20 at 7:15 am to boomtown143
I just spoke with my coworkers from Chad. They were adamant for me to vote for trump.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 7:15 am to Ssubba
quote:
Polls should be looked at as trend indicator, not individually as a snapshot prediction. All polls seem to be tightening, meaning Trump seems to be closing in.
True but how many of the 60 million early voters voted based on Trump being a meanie head?
Posted on 10/27/20 at 7:19 am to GumboPot
Lockdowns and shutting down oil. 2 losing issues for Biden and his handlers. Even if this is an honest poll, shy Trump vote has to add a couple points. It’s probably a 5 point lead at minimum.
This post was edited on 10/27/20 at 7:28 am
Posted on 10/27/20 at 7:25 am to StringedInstruments
quote:
True but how many of the 60 million early voters voted based on Trump being a meanie head?
There’s still 90-100 million votes out there. Republicans have been early voting in big numbers also.
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