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Nate Silver graph: America testing per capita ahead of most major nations
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:32 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:32 pm
but carry on that we are doing "the worst job"
This is why those graphs comparing national trajectories are insufficient.
The reason france appears to be bending is because they aren't accelerating testing like we are.
This is why those graphs comparing national trajectories are insufficient.
The reason france appears to be bending is because they aren't accelerating testing like we are.
quote:
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
This suggests that the US is now somewhat above the median in COVID-19 case detection. Our testing is better than much of Europe, and we're picking up a higher share of infections than they are.
quote:
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
To take one salient example, per these estimates, the UK probably has about 2x as many infections per capita as the US, even though the US has more *reported cases* per capita.
10
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:34 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I don't know if its my corona seltzers or if i am dumb but i dont understand that graph.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:36 pm to flyAU
quote:it's a different method of measuring testing capacity.
I don't know if its my corona seltzers or if i am dumb but i dont understand that graph.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:37 pm to flyAU
How do those compare to Truly’s or White Claw’s?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:38 pm to IrishTiger89
Not sure, but I do know the amount of people tested jumped massively today. From like 139k daily to over 240k.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:38 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
it's a different method of measuring testing capacity.
Why is Portugal darker blue?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:40 pm to flyAU
Why does nate bronze trust China’s numbers
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:41 pm to flyAU
I’m not sure.
Portugal is a meaningless nation though to I really don’t care.
Portugal is a meaningless nation though to I really don’t care.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:41 pm to IrishTiger89
quote:
How do those compare to Truly’s or White Claw’s?
Wife likes Truly's since they are sweeter. I like the Corona's and feel bad for the company tbh. I havent had White Claws enough to tell but think they are more on par with Corona.
Still don't understand the graph.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:43 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Nate Platinum!
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:43 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
What exactly is the significance of testing when practically everyone is being told "yeah you got it so go home, watch your symptoms and it they get considerably worse then call your doctor to see about getting you admitted". I mean hell, if I go to feeling really bad I'm going to the doctor anyway, virus or not. Now if they said "yeah you got it, here's a pill and you'll be well in three days" then testing would be significant.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:49 pm to Homesick Tiger
quote:
What exactly is the significance of testing when practically everyone is being told "yeah you got it so go home, watch your symptoms and it they get considerably worse then call your doctor to see about getting you admitted". I mean hell, if I go to feeling really bad I'm going to the doctor anyway, virus or not. Now if they said "yeah you got it, here's a pill and you'll be well in three days" then testing would be significant.
Need additional fear.
'Go home homesicktiger you're sick"
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:23 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
What the graph shows is "estimated range of symptomatic cases reported" or how many of the actual cases in a country have truly been identified.
The way this is calculated, they assume a global CFR, then they calculate nCFR and cCFR for a given country, then use global CFR to estimate the under reporting of cases. The closer a countries current cCFR is to the estimated global CFR the closer the country is to "accurately identifying" their current case load.
One interesting thing with this technique, as the SK nCFR has risen, using the cCFR for SK has resulted in less confidence that SK has a handle on their total cases. A couple of weeks ago, it was estimated that SK had identified about 90% of their cases but that number has really dropped off.
Here is the latest testing per 100,000
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:33 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:We've done an AWESOME job going from zero testing capacity to where we are today. Very, very quick. The problem is we started very, very late. Thank CDC and FDA for that.
but carry on that we are doing "the worst job"
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:51 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
To take one salient example, per these estimates, the UK probably has about 2x as many infections per capita as the US, even though the US has more *reported cases* per capita.
Yea, people have had a blind spot for this the whole time. The number of infections is a bullshite stat, because testing is not done evenly.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:53 pm to rds dc
Well what do you know, we’re doing the most testing per 100K of any other country with 100M+ people. No wonder we have by far the most cases. If only all the Karens on FB saw this and used common sense.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:03 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Isn’t Nate Silver the dingdong that said Hillary Clinton would win the election soundly. Why are we trusting anything he says.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 11:04 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:04 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Huh, how about that
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:06 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
We all focus on “testing” which has done very little to even slightly slow the spread but do nothing on “prevention” like wearing masks to slow the spread.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:12 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
We started doing a better job than the rest of the world a week or two ago
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