re: Nassim Taleb’s (author of Black Swan and AntiFragile) position on masks

How Taleb is wrong:

1st Error:

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Let us say (to simplify) that masks reduce both transmission and reception to p. What effect on the R0(that is, the rate of spreading of the infection)?

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This is speculative.

2nd Error:

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a reduction of viral load by 75% for a short exposure could reduce the probability of infection by 95% or more!

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This is also speculative.

3rd Error:

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The point is that there is no evidence that locking the door tonight will prevent me from being burglarized. But everything that may block transmission could help.

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The inverse is also true. There is no evidence that *not* locking the door will cause him to be burglarized. In the next sentence he admits that it's all speculation.

4th Error:

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hence they lied to us saying “masks are not effective”.

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This is classical begging the question. The existence of 3rd party craft masks did not begin with Covid-19. So, is it more likely that bureaucrats knew that these masks were not going to be effective or that they were completely ignorant to their existence?

5th Error:

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we know the probability of infection for non mask wearers from tens of thousands of data points and the various R0 estimations

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We actually don't know this with significant certainty which is a major factor contributing to the mixed governmental messages across the globe.

6th Error:

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“Libertarians” (in brackets) are resisting mask wearing on grounds that it constrains their freedom. Yet the entire concept of liberty lies in the Non-Aggression Principle, the equivalent of the Silver Rule: do not harm others; they in turn should not harm you.

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Libertarianism is in-fact rooted in the belief of negative rights. Those which exist, but are not to be defended less they become positive rights by contract. For instance, my right to be free from harm and Mr. Taleb's right to be free from harm are negative rights. Meaning I have no responsibility to protect him from harm; only that I do not actively bring harm upon him. It's safe to say that masks are not 100% effective, so mask or not makes no difference. The scenario is then that Mr. Taleb should not ask me to wear a mask and I should not purposefully cough in his face with the knowledge that I am infected.

I just want to know about herd immunity. No one is talking about it any more. We went into shutdown because we didn't have it, now we seem to be trying to avoid it. What gives? We are frantically searching for a vaccine yet doing everything in our power to isolate people so even the healthy won't become infected. At this rate the virus will never go away.

Oohhhhhhh..........

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First error: missing the compounding effect People who are good at exams (and become bureaucrats, economists, or hacks), my experience has been, are not good at understanding nonlinearities and dynamics

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I can say this about every single issue the government tries to "fix"

Talib is a douche but he gets it when it comes to academics, economists and government

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Mask rules also subject Americans to institutionalized fear. Which is hugely corrosive

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“It’s quite an experience living in fear. That’s what it is to be a slave.”
-Roy Batty

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You people are an embarrassment. You are not the men your fathers were

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Uh, see the 1918 flu pandemic.