re: Metal Prices Going Up Again

The melt value of a penny is now over 4 cents.

I took my old swimming pool ladder in to recycle. I guess those are made of heavy aluminum??? Anyways, I got a whole $2. But thats better than taking it to the dump and having to pay 45 just to dump it.

But the courts overruled the tariffs, shouldn't prices be coming down.

quote:

---

It seems most of the aluminum is getting swallowed up by the AI Data Centers.

---

I don't know about most but yes aluminum conductors are used for MV feeds on data centers

It's still cheaper than copper and it's lighter

We are WINNING!

quote:

---

Heavy trucks and SUVs rely on it to make the vehicle lighter to meet Obama's stupid MPG laws.

---

If you want to become a billionaire... invent a way to mold and produce carbon fiber or a carbon fiber type material, cheaply, efficiently and quickly. The worlds car manufacturers would throw billions at you for a piece of that.

The price movement before March was damn near 100% tariffs. When he announced on a Friday at the ribbon ceremony for that Nippon steel deal, he was increasing section 232 on steel and Alu by 25%; the domestic aluminum futures market had absorbed 24 of the 25% increase by market open on Monday. All this talk of demand is on the margins at best.

LETS LOOK AT THE FACTS SHALL WE:

For reference,
Midwest was 1.40/lb in Jan 2025, it was 2.20 in Dec 2025 (+57%)
LME was 1.17/lb in Jan 2025, it was 1.30 in Dec 2025 (+11%)


Once we started bombing Iran, and Bahrain started taking strays, the LME (what the rest of the world uses as price index) started moving as well. So now the USA is getting it from both ends.

MWT for April was 2.75/lb (+25% from Dec), LME was 1.63 (+25% from Dec)

The tariffs are raping this country's overall aluminum industry; and there's been no meaningful real life movement on the primary production side; just talk; and all that talk took place before oil was over $100/barrel; Emirates might want to redo their FID on that OK Smelter that will never exist. MWT at 2.75 is recessionary for this industry.


The talk now in alu industry, is a matter of when Trump will buckle, not if. He will first remove tariffs on aluminum billet from Canada (where 75% of US used primary comes from) and Mexico, that will kill all hopes of any new smelters in US. So we will do a roundtrip to basically where we started, not help anything, and will have lost alot of potential growth in the meantime, and be stuck with higher prices than where we started. For what? So some cultists could parrot that we were hooked on "cheap" chinese aluminum for a moment in time?

quote:

---

Ya want cheap aluminum but you would never let a smelter be built next door.

---

We had a perfectly good smelter in Missouri and a PE firm killed it dead.

quote:

---

Where are you using aluminum instead of 12/2 copper? Are you going up to 10 AWG aluminum to make up for aluminum carrying less current?

---

I don’t use anything below a 6 AWG aluminum. I will use it for anything 240v/30A and up. Dryer, water heater, AC condenser, electric heater, panel sub feeders, main electrical service wiring, etc. And yes, I always upsize the wire accordingly. Of course, this depends on the situation. I explain the cost benefit, as well as the history/current state of aluminum wiring- and I let the customer decide. I just did a custom home that the GC refused any aluminum wiring. We spent $6k (my cost) on subfeeders for two panels. I believe aluminum was a quarter of the cost at the time.

quote:

---

Doesn't aluminum require an antioxidant compound at termination points?

---

Old aluminum- absolutely. You can’t put enough on it. The new aluminum alloy- some manufacturers say you don’t need it. But I still do it anyway. It can’t hurt.

quote:

---

Many local codes prohibit aluminum.

---

I’m not aware of any jurisdictions in Louisiana that outright and completely prohibit the use of aluminum wiring. But there are regulations that govern its use. Such as that smaller gauge aluminum wiring (I believe 10 AWG and below) cannot be used for general use receptacles and lighting.

quote:

---

I know aluminum is used on industrial and utilities, but I had no idea some places are using it for more than that.

---

Every house and business in America is fed with aluminum wiring. Almost our entire electrical grid is aluminum wiring. The taboo associated with aluminum wiring comes from a brief. Back in the late 60s/early 70s in which small gauge aluminum wiring was used for general use lighting and receptacles. An epidemic of house fires ensued. They then banned the use of aluminum wiring for general use lighting and receptacles. But the damage is done. There are still many many many houses that have small gauge aluminum wiring. There are a few ways to mitigate the problem. Obviously a rewire to copper (for gen use) is preferred. But, pigtailing copper to aluminum with UL listed connectors at ALL termination points is acceptable, as is replacing switches and receptacles with Al/Cu rated devices. But you still have to remove every light fixture and find every junction box to replace the wire nuts with AL rated ones. And, if you miss anything, or if there’s an open splice in the wall or buried under insulation in the attic- you’re still at risk.

The problem with the old aluminum wiring (AA-1350) was/is more about the terminations (connections) than the actual conductor. When it oxidizes, the oxidation on the outer skin of the conductor is nonconductive. (in AC systems, electricity flows on the outside surface area of the conductor- the core of the conductor acts as a heat sink) This creates resistance in the connections, which creates heat. Add in the problem of contact between dissimilar metals and you have a recipe for disaster.

The new aluminum wire is a very much improved alloy that meets the requirements necessary for a safe and effective installation. Where applicable, there is no good reason not to use it.

quote:

---

I have a ton of old copper from some A/C jobs and rewiring a few flip houses. I have some long runs of 4/2 that we had to replace and had to cut up to do so. I need to strip it because you get more for clean wire.

---

Most of the industrial demolition companies used to be single owner. Back in the day, the National Association of Demolition Contractors held their annual convention in Las Vegas. Most of the smaller contractors had a small warehouse with wire strippers and would store their stripped copper until September then would sell it all a month before the convention, for cash to gamble with. They most definitely did not declare any earnings for this on their taxes it all went off books.