re: Major casualty event at Canadian military base Wainwright

Muh dolphining.

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A grass fire ignited in the training area around 4:00 p.m. local time.

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This is likely not what happened.

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So, conducted live ordinance training that ignited dry grass during high winds setting off a massive uncontrolled fire that killed 4 and hospitalized 39 more, including many in critical condition?

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There was an active fire that had started prior to the start of the training exercises. That fire was being "watched" and they decided to carry on with the planned exercises. This was acknowledged by the military rep at the press briefing yesterday during the Q&A session. It is also backed up by satellite imagery that is timestamped, and I would bet by dispatch and radio traffic for the concerned fire response.

That initial fire was deemed not a threat to the training grounds, and during the first half if the day the prevailing winds were in a different direction than the grounds and not all that strong.

That wind shifted and picked up greatly with the passage of a frontal boundary. The wind turned toward the training grounds and gusts of over 50mph were recorded. That change in the wind quickly spread the grass fire towards the grounds, covering around 3 miles in short order. This is also backed up by timestamped satellite imagery.

Confusion began early on when officials and reporters used the phrasing "a fire ignited at 4pm". It is a verifiable fact that fire was in ths area, less that 1km away from the grounds prior to the start of those training exercises.

They have a lot of explaining to do.