re: Luzerne County PA has flipped to Republican

quote:

---

That math ain't there this time.

---

That drop could simply be because no Covid this time around.

What is Erie's problem? Erie seems off. Also there are usually a few more counties along the NY border Obama won that Trump took.

State College and Pit are young dumb Karen's indoctrinated

I was just doing some quick math comparing the PA mail-in ballot requests in 2020 to the requested, so far, in 2024. Only 1,347,114 mail-in ballots have been requested so far, whereas in 2020 it was 3,087,524 so these numbers will almost certainly change but early on it looks like the GOP may have more enthusiasm.

The numbers are 2024 v 2020:

DEM - 63.1% to 62.9%
GOP - 26.2% to 25.4%
IND - 10.7% to 10.9%.

It is still early but that is a pretty significant increase for the GOP in 2024 (0.8%) to Dems (0.2%) so far.

Ages 18-24 requesting ballots, so far, is slightly down from 2020 8.32% vs 8.44%.

ETA: It might be obvious but just in case these percentages are what percentage of mail-in ballot requests are from registered Democrats, etc...

That's just part of the math.

quote:

---

With Pennsylvania’s Oct. 21 registration deadline fast approaching, Republicans have nearly 40,000 more voters than they had in November 2020. Democrats, on the other hand, are roughly 303,000 voters behind their 2020 status.

---

quote:

---

“Across the board, in every single category of county, including in all of the places where Democrats had been doing well, Democrats’ performance over, especially, the six months before Biden withdrew from the race, was just appalling,” Putnam said. “Like, Democrats had never seen such bad numbers.”

In the weeks since July 21, when Biden dropped out of the presidential race, Democrats have seen a net increase in their total registered voters each week. However, Republicans and unaffiliated or third-party voters are adding new registrations at an even faster rate.

---

LINK

Luzerne County went solidly for Trump in 2016 and 2020. This could be a case of voters just formalizing what they've already been doing- voting Republican. Reminds me of how the majority of Louisiana was registered Democrats until just a few years ago.