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re: Let's suppose Trump is right. All countries come to the table...
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:06 pm to DiamondDog
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:06 pm to DiamondDog
It varies by product and by country. Labor is cheap in Vietnam but we import silk from there because we never had big silk farms here anyway. V.N. doesn't make our cars.
Japan makes great cars. But they don't pay their workers V.N wages. So, they go ahead and move factories to the U.S. Those factories have American workers. But the Japanese car companies still make big profits because there are way more Lexus buyers in the U.S. than there are in Japan.
One factor that will be key is US unions. Let's say Trump's plan motivates the Widget Company to rebuild their plant in Ohio now that we're not importing Widgets from Java. The company realizes that they can make a profit with assembly workers getting $30 and hour. But the Widget union demands $80 an hour. That's gonna be a problem.
Japan makes great cars. But they don't pay their workers V.N wages. So, they go ahead and move factories to the U.S. Those factories have American workers. But the Japanese car companies still make big profits because there are way more Lexus buyers in the U.S. than there are in Japan.
One factor that will be key is US unions. Let's say Trump's plan motivates the Widget Company to rebuild their plant in Ohio now that we're not importing Widgets from Java. The company realizes that they can make a profit with assembly workers getting $30 and hour. But the Widget union demands $80 an hour. That's gonna be a problem.
1
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:06 pm to SlowFlowPro
I don't know. I can swallow the higher prices if our goal is baseline tariffs to onshore manufacturing back to US. I'm for this.
I can even deal with just negotiating better deals 0%.
I think pursuing both at once makes you fail at both because neither will accomplish any clear outcome.
I can even deal with just negotiating better deals 0%.
I think pursuing both at once makes you fail at both because neither will accomplish any clear outcome.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:07 pm to Zach
Remember when you used to be obsessed with the topic of bizcon during the Obama years?
Funny how you've completely abandoned that right?
Funny how you've completely abandoned that right?
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:08 pm to DiamondDog
quote:
I think pursuing both at once makes you fail at both because neither will accomplish any clear outcome.
Of course
Both can't be accomplished simultaneously by definition
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:10 pm to BuckyCheese
quote:
The problem people like you have is a need for absolutes to form your argument.
My argument is that no goal has been articulated for the malleability I spoke of earlier.
OP agrees.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:10 pm to Powerman
Then why are we doing that? We seem to have a messaging problem.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:18 pm to lake chuck fan
quote:
China, as well as EU countries subsidize their companies. This creates an unfair advantage for them over US companies.
This is almost verbatim what Milton Friedman answered 50 years in his speech at Kansas State. The question was how we stop Nippon Steel from flooding us with their less expensive product subsidized by the Japanese government to undercut American steel. His answer was "if the Japanese government wants to provide us with foreign aid, why should we stop them?"
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:21 pm to DiamondDog
It makes a huge difference with highly industrial countries such as Germany.
We don't export goods that are dominated by low wages industries. Companies like Nike dominate but there is not one Nike factory in the US
Countries like Vietnam don't manufactured airplanes, electronics, automobiles and so forth. However having a zero tariffs agreement with Vietnam benefits both of us in theory.
If high tariffs increase price then lower tariffs should decrease prices on clothing, footwear, furniture, seafood and such. Vietnamese products will be more marketable due to o lower tariffs and will force China to react.
It should be noted that there is a difference between cost and price. Costs can go down but that doesn't translate to lower prices in the short term.
We don't export goods that are dominated by low wages industries. Companies like Nike dominate but there is not one Nike factory in the US
Countries like Vietnam don't manufactured airplanes, electronics, automobiles and so forth. However having a zero tariffs agreement with Vietnam benefits both of us in theory.
If high tariffs increase price then lower tariffs should decrease prices on clothing, footwear, furniture, seafood and such. Vietnamese products will be more marketable due to o lower tariffs and will force China to react.
It should be noted that there is a difference between cost and price. Costs can go down but that doesn't translate to lower prices in the short term.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:23 pm to Ingeniero
quote:
This is almost verbatim what Milton Friedman answered 50 years in his speech at Kansas State. The question was how we stop Nippon Steel from flooding us with their less expensive product subsidized by the Japanese government to undercut American steel. His answer was "if the Japanese government wants to provide us with foreign aid, why should we stop them?"
Correct.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:24 pm to Ingeniero
quote:
"if the Japanese government wants to provide us with foreign aid, why should we stop them?"
Indeed. I use that as a frame of reference to tell them that China is subsidizing their own purchase, which potentially creates wealth for them.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:28 pm to DiamondDog
quote:
How exactly is that pushing manufacturing back stateside? Labor is still cheaper in Vietnam.
On the margins we could compete.
You know you have to ship materials to Vietnam and ship finished products from Vietnam. All which have a cost.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:31 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
On the margins we could compete.
You know you have to ship materials to Vietnam and ship finished products from Vietnam. All which have a cost.
What is Vietnam, a poor country, buying from America to make this make sense?
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:32 pm to DiamondDog
quote:
I don't really understand how we accomplish restoring industry if we're negotiating 0% tariffs.
Seems like it would be easier to just say..."hey, we're matching every tariff on us. We want to drive to 0."
We seem to be working two opposite paths at once
Exactly. But trying to think this out rationally out loud just means you are a hater somehow.
Im sorry that id prefer to know the goal behind a plan and the logistics of it before i trust it.
Even some of the economists they cited in their implementation of the tariffs are confused by the rollout/execution, with 1 stating they shouldve been about 1/4th of the amount (10% tariff instead of 40%)
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:35 pm to Corinthians420
quote:
Im sorry that id prefer to know the goal behind a plan and the logistics of it before i trust it.
It's not just that. The bait and switch on what they were doing (reciprocal tariffs turning into tariffs based on trade deficits) has made it impossible for many countries to fix things. Poor countries cannot afford to buy our expensive exports to make the trade balance neutral. It's chaos for the countries involved, too.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:36 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
It's a moving target so that they don't have to commit to a goal, so no matter what Trump is right.
Seed Chaos
Watch the cards fall.
Scoop up whatever cards happen to be the best.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:36 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Correct
Milton Friedmans books changed my life and how I look at the world.
I don't think he ever anticipated that we would allow China to take our dollars and buy our government and institutions.
He also never considered we would implement barriers and switching costs that would make the market completely incapable of responding to market factors.
So you people with a superficial understanding or economics quoting him are just embarrassing yourselves.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:36 pm to Powerman
quote:
Remember when you used to be obsessed with the topic of bizcon during the Obama years? Funny how you've completely abandoned that right?
I wasn't obsessed with bizcon. I was explaining it as it is applied to policy arguments. Here is another policy argument from my college days that could be used today....
a. Trump is imposing tariffs.
b. That causes trade wars.
c. Historically trade wars lead to shooting wars.
d. Shooting wars expand to world wars.
e. Today a world war would result in the use of nukes.
f. Use of nukes gets retaliation.
g. Global nuke exchange destroys all life.
THEREFORE...
Trump has caused the end of the world.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:37 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
I don't think he ever anticipated that we would allow China to take our dollars and buy our government and institutions.
That conspiracy theory is not what's being discussed, ITT, nor was it being discussed in the post to which I replied (and you quoted)
quote:
So you people with a superficial understanding or economics quoting him are just embarrassing yourselves.
He says after relying on a conspiracy theory as his counter
*ETA: Thomas Sowell is still alive and still agrees with Friedman, also
This post was edited on 4/5/25 at 2:38 pm
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:38 pm to DiamondDog
It opens markets previously closed to US manufacturers due to protectionist tariffs.
Posted on 4/5/25 at 2:41 pm to SlowFlowPro
Every single post more retarded and self congratulatory than the last.
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