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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 9/22/26 at 10:12 am to doubleb
Posted on 9/22/26 at 10:12 am to doubleb
quote:
We are producing more and more Thxs to his energy policies.
Not quite 50% of new production is actually condensate, not technically crude oil. It is legally called crude oil because of the Congressional Act to approve the Alaskan pipeline which also banned its export.. A refinery built for light sweet crude will go bankrupt trying to refine it by losing 30% capacity. Some refineries have installed condensate splitters to use it at all, they had to. A condensate splitter is basically another crude unit to refine it so it can be refined. Extra capital investment and energy used.
I's good for blending with heavy crude but not as the main feedstock.
The US has not been crude oil independent since 1943.
This post was edited on 9/22/26 at 10:13 am
Posted on 9/22/26 at 11:34 am to doubleb
quote:
What’s your prediction?
It is very difficult to predict but I think probably Russia will control Orikhiv and Dobropillya by end of calendar year 2026, and the battle for Kramatorsk and Soviansk will begin in earnest in 2027. I do not deny that it is theoretically possible that there could be some sort of economic and/or political collapse inside Russia. But, short of that, I do believe that Russia will control the contested areas in the SMO zone by no later than year end 2028. Beyond this, I make no predictions.
Posted on 9/22/26 at 11:39 am to CitizenK
But like I posted, we are producing more.
Posted on 9/22/26 at 11:39 am to T1gerNate
quote:
It is very difficult to predict but I think probably Russia will control Orikhiv and Dobropillya by end of calendar year 2026, and the battle for Kramatorsk and Soviansk will begin in earnest in 2027. I do not deny that it is theoretically possible that there could be some sort of economic and/or political collapse inside Russia. But, short of that, I do believe that Russia will control the contested areas in the SMO zone by no later than year end 2028. Beyond this, I make no predictions.
Fair enough. Time will tell.
Posted on 9/22/26 at 1:01 pm to doubleb
quote:
But like I posted, we are producing more.
Not exactly horse piss but it ain't crude oil. It is used to "water down" crude oil. Some is shipped as is to Venezuela as a diluent to allow very heavy crude oil to flow through pipelines. They also use naphtha (part of gasoline)
Eagle Ford used to go by ship from Corpus Christi to LOOP. It was then pipelined up Capline then transferred to other pipelines to get to Canada so that very heavy crude produced in oilfields would flow through pipelines, However, Capline (1,2 million BPD) was reversed and Canadian gas fields started producing a lot of condensate (pentanes plus) to make up the slack
Posted on 9/22/26 at 2:49 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 9/22/26 at 2:52 pm to Coeur du Tigre
As we predicted...
quote:
Zelensky says Ukraine is ready for an energy ceasefire, with Kyiv stopping strikes on Russian energy sites if Moscow stops attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure. He said the US will convey Ukraine’s proposal to Russia and stressed that no request was made during today’s talks for Kyiv to halt strikes unilaterally. Ukraine is also seeking a winter package of Patriot missiles from the US and licenses for production, with work continuing on interceptor production in Ukraine.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/22/26 at 3:05 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Trump’s potash play just collapsed in public. The timing is almost artistic.
On 21 September he announced that the United States was working on a massive deal to buy Belarusian potash at prices far below what Canada charges.
His words, his stage, his usual framing: the master negotiator delivering for farmers and ranchers. Then Minsk answered.
Lukashenko said negotiations continue, but free volumes for the American market simply do not exist. Everything is already contracted. That counts as a cancellation. a public rejection dressed in diplomatic cotton.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 9/22/26 at 4:24 pm to Coeur du Tigre
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Zelenskyy: President Trump asked me not to respond on Russian diesel refineries, oil.
We don't want this game, and I suggest neither side plays it. Putin attacks us, we respond.
Believe me, if we couldn't respond, we wouldn't be here today. We are not weak. 1/
Zelenskyy: Raytheon is ready to give us a license for Patriots. We asked the president to help move this quicker, and he's positive.
We will need our own production of Patriot missiles. Maybe a year, a year and a half. 2/
Zelenskyy: President Trump can organize a trilateral meeting where leaders can raise all the sensitive things and try to end the war.
I'm prepared to meet President Putin in a trilateral meeting anytime all sides are ready. We all need to move as quickly as possible. 3/
Zelenskyy: Putin wants to divide unanimity in Europe, or Europe with the US, to decrease support to Ukraine. How? Attack somebody else and say: I will go further. Or make societies afraid.
That's what he's doing with drones in Moldova, Romania, Poland, Germany, airports. 4/
Zelenskyy: If you don't support a ceasefire, you are not ready to stop the war. Nothing is forgiven, I'm sure. Accountability will come.
But today this is a signal, the second one. Are you ready to sit and negotiate? You hear it from Ukraine. We don't hear it from Russia. 5X
Posted on 9/22/26 at 4:46 pm to CitizenK
Back in the 1960's while fishing in the back parts of the Paradis gas fields over the weekend we would run short of boat gas. Condensate from a well head worked pretty good and was available if you knew the right instrument lead to unscrew. Is that the type of condensate you are referring to ?
Posted on 9/22/26 at 5:31 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Russia has concentrated three armies on this narrow sector: the 8th, 41st, and 51st combined arms armies. Their priority is to reach the heights behind the first defensive line before winter.
They are going to have to learn to speed up their advance. Also going to get a lot of Russians killed.
Posted on 9/22/26 at 8:16 pm to Trevaylin
quote:
Is that the type of condensate you are referring to ?
You can burn up and engine in it. It's pretty close to the same only differentiated by coming from a gas well as part of NGLs or very light and colored as "crude" oil. It's also known as natural gasoline or pentanes plus. That is how it got around the congressional ban for export.
Posted on 9/23/26 at 1:26 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Up to 300,000 rubles are paid to drivers for each trip to the occupied territories. They are perfectly aware of where they are going, and they are willing to die right in their vehicles.
How much are Ukrainians getting dragged off the street get paid?
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 9/23/26 at 3:28 am to cl02wnsmasher
On the condensate discussion, I find a photograph helps - the two condensates on the left. This is what it looks like out of the well. Although sometimes called Natural Gas or Liquid Natural Gas, it is a liquid.
The density (kg/L) is generally in the 0.700 to 0.750 range, gasoline being in the 0.720 to 0.780 range. So they are slightly lighter than gasoline and are as volitile (easily evaporates).
It can be used as fuel, especially for two-cycle engines such as older outboard motors or lawnmowers, but the valve timing will be off and this causes overheating. But in a pinch it will get you back to the dock. It's also a marvelous anti-septic, just as most crude oil. I've never seen small cuts heal faster than when dipped in this stuff.
The density (kg/L) is generally in the 0.700 to 0.750 range, gasoline being in the 0.720 to 0.780 range. So they are slightly lighter than gasoline and are as volitile (easily evaporates).
It can be used as fuel, especially for two-cycle engines such as older outboard motors or lawnmowers, but the valve timing will be off and this causes overheating. But in a pinch it will get you back to the dock. It's also a marvelous anti-septic, just as most crude oil. I've never seen small cuts heal faster than when dipped in this stuff.
Posted on 9/23/26 at 3:30 am to Coeur du Tigre
This kind of thing goes on every night in the occupied territories.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/23/26 at 3:32 am to Coeur du Tigre
These attacks are also going on constantly.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/23/26 at 3:38 am to Coeur du Tigre
Oh, and you can use condensate in hurricane lanterns as well. Just add a little motor oil to the mix to prevent explosions. (That's how Standard Oil got its name.)
Twitter Link
quote:
Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces say Operation “Crimean Switch Off” has targeted 412 energy nodes across Russia and Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories between July 6 and September 22. Another 38 sites were targeted during the second third of September: 10 in Crimea, 13 in occupied Luhansk, nine in occupied Donetsk, four in Russia, and one each in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions. The targets included electrical substations, gas distribution stations and a compressor station.
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Posted on 9/23/26 at 3:45 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Zelensky raised the possibility of using Starlink for strikes on targets inside Russia during his meeting with Trump, Newsmax reports, citing a senior Ukrainian official. Trump responded: “You have to talk to Elon about it.” Licensing Patriot production in Ukraine was also discussed, although the source called it a long-term issue. The official characterized the Trump-Zelensky meeting as “very good,” saying its tone and reception were “very positive.”
My thoughts on Musk have been expressed before, but if people want to be diplomatic about it, Rocket Boy's lack of manhood will be difficult to defend after this statement. That's one thing money can't buy.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/23/26 at 3:50 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 9/23/26 at 4:03 am to Coeur du Tigre
Mark - responses that "are not public" are counterproductive. What can't be seen doesn't exist. Public confidence is built on tangible results. If the French and Italian hotel owners don't want a ban on Russian/Russian-aligned passports, the start seizing the shadow fleet vessels. Do something.
quote:
Rutte: Article 5 is deliberately ambiguous, so we will never exactly tell anyone when Article 5 is exactly triggered or not.
Because we don't want to make our adversaries any wiser. But when it comes to hybrid, let me assure you, we have all the response options we need.
Some of them you will not see because they are simply not public.
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