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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 2/18/26 at 10:40 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 2/18/26 at 10:40 pm to Chromdome35
Ok, so here we go.
T1gerNate has said that we are witnessing the fall of the Donbas, and I've said I tend to believe him . So, let's say that this prognostication is in the ballpark of being right, and that it takes about 2 more years to take the Donbas. Is it worth it?
By my estimation, that's anywhere from 700k to 1.2M more casualties for the Russians, 2 years of economic strife and low oil prices, and all of the other stuff. This is assuming, of course, that there is no revolution in Russia and Vlad doesn't find a rope around his neck. Is that worth taking the remainder of the Donbas, which, by my math, is about 2k kilometers squared, or about the size of metro Oklahoma City?
So, assuming that the Russians actually do take the Donbas, is it worth it?
My guess is no, but it's going to take a while for us to get an solid answer, if ever.
T1gerNate has said that we are witnessing the fall of the Donbas, and I've said I tend to believe him . So, let's say that this prognostication is in the ballpark of being right, and that it takes about 2 more years to take the Donbas. Is it worth it?
By my estimation, that's anywhere from 700k to 1.2M more casualties for the Russians, 2 years of economic strife and low oil prices, and all of the other stuff. This is assuming, of course, that there is no revolution in Russia and Vlad doesn't find a rope around his neck. Is that worth taking the remainder of the Donbas, which, by my math, is about 2k kilometers squared, or about the size of metro Oklahoma City?
So, assuming that the Russians actually do take the Donbas, is it worth it?
My guess is no, but it's going to take a while for us to get an solid answer, if ever.
This post was edited on 2/18/26 at 11:41 pm
1
Posted on 2/19/26 at 2:00 am to CitizenK
quote:
The reason why Putin restricted Russians' access to Telegram has become known (and it will be completely shut down from April 1) — Russian military bloggers and Telegram channels are spreading information that due to critical needs on the Ukrainian fronts, Putin is preparing to announce a large military mobilization - a forced conscription.
I would not bet against the historic lack of agency of the Russian population, but if they did it in 1917, anything's possible. At least Putin isn't taking any chances and is trying to shut down any remaining social media.
But as always, if you read the Comments section, you will find some jewels -
quote:
telegram is centralized, it's the briar app he needs to worry about, as it's specifically designed for local coordination over bluetooth
Whoa. Ok, I'm showing my minimalist IT skills here, but Holy shite. This Briar App is:
- Free and open source;
- Connects directly with nearby contacts, even without Internet;
- Stores messages securely on user's device, not in the cloud; and
- Has peer-to-peer encrypted messaging and forums.
Yeah, "and forums".
As all the IT experts I know are now at soccer practice or doing their geometry homework, if anyone on this thread knows anything about this app, please chirp up.
Posted on 2/19/26 at 3:07 am to cypher
quote:
Pskov region, Russia
More footage of the fire at the oil depot in Velikiye Luki after the attack by drones tonight.
Posted on 2/19/26 at 3:13 am to Coeur du Tigre
Reminds us of another view of beautiful Russia from two years ago. Great for screen shots -
Posted on 2/19/26 at 3:14 am to doubleb
quote:
But percentages don’t tell you anything. They all equal 100%. The relevant numbers is the amount of the revenues Russia is bringing in compared to four years ago.
Exactly. The key number in the percentages is that two customers are now over 80% of their market. So they have way less leverage or room for negotiation.
The key number is that in 2019 Russian oil and gas exports were $186 billion. In 2025 they were about $100 billion. 2026 is forecast in the range of $80-$85 billion.
What is saving their arse is gold. That price has tripled since Covid. And gold exports are up to something like $45 billion. That's not plugging the entire oil and gas shortfall, but it's helping keep them afloat.
Posted on 2/19/26 at 6:58 am to No Colors
quote:
The key number is that in 2019 Russian oil and gas exports were $186 billion. In 2025 they were about $100 billion. 2026 is forecast in the range of $80-$85 billion.
Gross sales does not equal profit from sales. Oil doesn't flow for free. They were losing money during Covid at with sales at $30 per barrel. Here in the US a number of oil companies went bankrupt or were forced to sell out to majors. I could go buy goods at retail and then carry them to a pawn shop to sell at a loss to get cash flow.
Posted on 2/19/26 at 7:54 am to CitizenK
Russian capital investment back into their production is basically zero. So their numbers are 300,000 bpd below their OPEC+ allotment, and falling. They will soon have lost 1 million bpd which is one reason Trump is trying to bring Venezuela back online to keep prices low.
Posted on 2/19/26 at 8:26 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Stores messages securely on user's device, not in the cloud; and
- Has peer-to-peer encrypted messaging and forums.
A lot of apps claim this and governments, especially ours, are consistently able to crack them
Posted on 2/19/26 at 9:26 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:Pskov was one of the ancient capitals of the land of Rus over a thousand years ago..
Pskov region, Russia
Its kremlin fortifications are still standing (Kremlim means fortress or fort in Russian).
I've walked along the top of the stone walls of the Pskov kremlin during a work assignment there.
Posted on 2/19/26 at 9:28 am to VolSquatch
The Z cringe factory is open for business
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Posted on 2/19/26 at 10:01 am to No Colors
Posted on 2/19/26 at 10:05 am to No Colors
quote:
Russian capital investment back into their production is basically zero. So their numbers are 300,000 bpd below their OPEC+ allotment, and falling. They will soon have lost 1 million bpd which is one reason Trump is trying to bring Venezuela back online to keep prices low.
Not just capital investment but consumables and maintenance costs. There are other oilfields coming online. Venezuelan crude doesn't compete with Russian, it competes with Canadian. US companies lost billions thanks to Chavez, and that includes drilling contractor who lost a ton of money. It memory serves me correcting. Helmerlich and Payne alone had around 175 rigs in Venezuela and wasn't paid by PDVSA for over a year before contracts canceled. Russia and China took over those activities and also fields.
Posted on 2/19/26 at 10:20 am to VolSquatch
Posted on 2/19/26 at 10:24 am to Leopold
The answer is no in the western mindset but yes in the Russian one. I also don't think this war ends even if the Donbas region is taken.
Posted on 2/19/26 at 10:26 am to CitizenK
The Russian catering business is starting to crack. That's a real death knell for the economy.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 2/19/26 at 10:28 am to LARancher1991
quote:
The answer is no in the western mindset but yes in the Russian one. I also don't think this war ends even if the Donbas region is taken.
A recent EU intelligence report said Russia's objectives are to capture the Donbas, Remove the Z government, and have Ukraine become a neutral buffer state between them and NATO.
So yeah, even if they got the Donbas tomorrow the other two will still be in flux.
Posted on 2/19/26 at 10:58 am to VolSquatch
How is this cringe?
Posted on 2/19/26 at 11:33 am to VolSquatch
quote:
A lot of apps claim this and governments, especially ours, are consistently able to crack them
First, we aren't talking about the US government, are we?
Secondly, show us your sources for this nonsense. Or is it just more of your baseless drive-by sniping. Contrariness is not cool, it just makes you look stupid. Accurately stupid.
Posted on 2/19/26 at 12:33 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
First, we aren't talking about the US government, are we?
I forgot that we are in mixed company, yes the US government.
quote:
Secondly, show us your sources for this nonsense. Or is it just more of your baseless drive-by sniping. Contrariness is not cool, it just makes you look stupid. Accurately stupid
It's pretty common knowledge that there are methods of hacking at least some of these E2E platforms. For instance, Tucker aka Cucker Qatarlson famously had his hacked by the state department before his trip to Russia in the process of planning it, then was heavily "advised" not to go. Not leaked, they were monitoring his app.
As for your tween girl-esque tone, I take no offense to it coming from someone who, in addition to posting leftist drivel and celebrating videos of deaths like a sociopath, tries to weaponize pedophilia accusations when Trump pisses you off and then goes radio silent on them when it looks like he is going to behave in a way that's friendly to Ukraine. Truly despicable.
Posted on 2/19/26 at 12:37 pm to Leopold
quote:
How is this cringe?
Well first off let's consider the context that he has nothing to prove to anyone. I don't even like the guy and can acknowledge that he has shown significant resolve and has the absolute moral high ground in his situation.
So he goes into the gutter on this Trump-ian rant "the history doesn't matter, but I'm the best at history and I've been all sorts of places and you haven't" sounds like a Trump line in some obscure feud with a low level Democrat. So yeah, not a big deal but I think it's pretty cringe. Z should talk less because opening your mouth too much on unimportant mud slinging like this does you no good.
This post was edited on 2/19/26 at 12:39 pm
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