re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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Okay, but Kiev is the size of Chicago, so if the Russians can't take towns I've never heard of after a year and a half then they aren't takine European Chicago. I will make a bet on any terms you want that that won't happen before this war 'ends.' (We can debate what defines 'ends')

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You're assuming the reality today will still be true tomorrow.

If the economic damage keeps up for Russia, their capabilities and willingness to continue might change. I think everyone here agrees with that.

But you all have this mental block or something that keeps you from realizing (or admitting) that there is also a situation where Ukraine's personnel problems mean it doesn't matter how inept Russia is.

Now personally I don't think it will get to that point, but its certainly something that could happen.

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That and, I'm sorry, the Russian wartime economy sucks. The Russian economy beore this war wasn't particularly strong, and their version of a 'wartime economy' (or a 'Special Military Operation-economy) isn't impressive, so I'm not expecting them to all of a sudden become competent or grow the ability to actually overwhelm the Ukrainians, per their plan. And that's before we even discuss their 'competency'....

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I don't think they are a new version of the US's WW2 economy or anything, but I don't think it sucks either. They are keeping up with (or in some cases outpacing) Ukraine and an entire bloc of countries by themselves. They aren't doing well in terms of producing things like tanks, but tanks are barely getting used presently.

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Okay, but they tried that strategy. There has been constant clamoring by the Ukrainians for some actual security guarantees and not only have they not achieved anything they've actually gone backwards, as seen by the joke of a 'peace plan.' Not only will the Russians absolutely \not allow for any real guarantees, they refuse to even consider capping the Russian Army. ARE YOU F"N SERIOUS? They want to cap Ukraine's but not the Russians?!

So, yeah, while I agree with you, that ain't happening.

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Why would Russia agree to capping their own army? That makes no sense.

Russia wants caps on Ukraine's army because they know if the current version of Ukraine continues to exist it will be supported (and possibly even defended by) NATO. In that situation there is no logical reason to agree to that given that context if you're the Russians.

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Okay, everything you said about this is true. But it's irrelevant from a military perspective, unless you are talking about demographics from 16 years back and onward. All the Ukrainians think about it surviving Russia right now, and they'll deal with the democraic apocalypse afterwards.

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Its irrelevant from a military perspective because its not a point about militarism. Its a post war "quality of life" point. I don't give a fiddler's frick about Ukraine the country in the same way I don't give a fiddler's frick about the country of somewhere like Ireland, but I would like to see the Ukrainian people still exist and be thriving in the future and not have to turn into some "multicultural" hell hole because they don't have the people to keep a functional society going there, just like I want to see the Irish people still around and thriving in 25 years.

Ok, the truth is coming out about the Belgian's protection of Putin's money -

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The Prime Minister of Belgium, Bart De Wever, plays a central role in the debate over the use of frozen Russian central bank assets, as the majority of these funds are held at Euroclear, the central securities depository based in Belgium. It is estimated that Belgium holds between 185 and 210 billion euros of these assets.

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Bart De Wever, who is currently blocking the use of Russian funds for Ukraine, maintained close relations with high-ranking Russian officials before and long after the 2014 annexation of Crimea. De Wever himself emphasized that he had been visiting St. Petersburg since 1988 as a tourist, professionally, and with his family, as he explained during a meeting in Russia.

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In April 2018, in the midst of increasing sanctions, Antwerp politician Bart De Wever visited Moscow. During this visit, De Wever and Mayor Sergey Sobyanin signed a comprehensive cooperation program. He also brought a large delegation of around 100 business representatives and organizations to deepen exchanges with their Russian counterparts.

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The main goal of the trip and the meeting with Sergey Sobyanin was to expand cooperation in the economy and port activities. In 2018, Russian media noted that Bart De Wever supported an alliance with Russia. The pro-Russian stance of European populists already provided the Kremlin with the much-needed political legitimacy at that time.

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Sergey Sobyanin: His rise is based on unconditional loyalty to Vladimir Putin, whose chief of staff he once was. The work of Moscow’s mayor has been marked by scandals involving corruption schemes and ineffective projects. Yet he remains firmly in office despite numerous allegations of fraud and cover-ups linked to him and his circle.

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Sobyanin’s massive construction projects serve a system designed to favor beneficiaries from his inner circle and to control and redirect the enormous financial flows of the capital, which account for nearly 20% of Russia’s regional state revenues. It is a system in which public funds have been shifted into private hands.

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Thanks to his “meticulous work,” Sobyanin quickly became a dollar millionaire, turning Moscow into his personal business hub, where every project, every district, and every plot of land is worth billions. His right-hand man is Alexey Nemeryuk. The Nemeryuk family clan had close ties to the “Khimki” organized crime group, which has been linked to corporate takeovers, contract killings, and money laundering.

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As a key figure in the power apparatus, Sobyanin is accused of using Moscow’s economy to serve the Kremlin’s interests. The city administration pressured construction companies to meet quotas for recruiting volunteers for the war in Ukraine. This demonstrates the direct entanglement of Moscow’s city government with the regime’s military-political objectives.

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During the trip, Bart De Wever, mayor of Antwerp in Belgium, met with the governor of St. Petersburg (2011–2018), Georgy Poltavchenko, who had served in the Committee for State Security (KGB) since 1979 and worked in the administration of the Federal Tax Police Service for St. Petersburg.

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Let us not forget that Chechnya has been bought off with huge payments from Moscow. Should those payments be reduced substantially or ceased, Putin will likely have rebellion within its borders AGAIN.

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You're assuming the reality today will still be true tomorrow.

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I'm not assuming a damn thing. I know it will be which is why I'm offering a bet. Avatar, say?

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But you all have this mental block or something that keeps you from realizing (or admitting) that there is also a situation where Ukraine's personnel problems mean it doesn't matter how inept Russia is.

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I have no mental block that keeps me from realizing (or admitting) Ukraine's personnel problems mean it doesn't matter how inept Russia is.

Look, I have no delusions about the problems Ukraine faces once this war is over, but that's not my problem. I, along with the rest of the international community, will probably abandon Ukraine once this war is over. But the Russian problem won't go away if they win this thing however you define 'win', so any talk about Kiev's demographic issues is putting the cart before the horse. It has no military value in this conflict outside of certain restrictions the Ukrainian government has put on who they can draft, but that has shown to be a workable solution to that issue. The huge population advantage Russia has over Ukraine has not shown to be the deciding factor in this war, just the opposite it has shown to be the crutch the Kremlin has tried to hang on to while screwing everything else up, costing them millions of lives.

So the fact that Ukraine isn't having babies isn't going to matter for years to come.

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I don't think they are a new version of the US's WW2 economy or anything, but I don't think it sucks either.

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I'm not going to mince words here. The Russian economy sucks.

It is entirely dependent on their war effort and their oil and gas empires which is showing to be a horrible strategy. Their 'wartime economy' means that they are plowing every nickel and dime (or Ruble and Kopek) into running their own people into machine guns, and I'm not even going to talk about the modern day bullseye their gas empire has become. Their economy is going into recession and unlike the Ukrainians they have no friends (or benefactors, as it is):

Russian Economy is Going Into Recession

All of this for extremely short-term gains that seem to have already run their course and are costing Russia (and her neighbor) her future.

I don't know if or when the Russian economy collapses but this plan is going to cost them horribly in the long run, and it looks like more and more that the short term as well.

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Why would Russia agree to capping their own army? That makes no sense.

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Exactly. That's the point I'm making.

You've talked about putting security guarantees in 'plain language' but their irrelevant to a Russian government whose only goal is to take over Ukraine. The Russian insistence on capping the Ukrainians military is proof of that.

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Its irrelevant from a military perspective because its not a point about militarism. Its a post war "quality of life" point.

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Okay, so maybe that's the disconnect here. I'm concerned about the Ukraine winning this war, maybe you see it as a 'long term' thing.

But even the long game for the Ukraine depends on them defeating the Russians and nobody is more aware of that than the Ukrainians. If they can't beat the Russians on the battlefield there isn't going to be a Ukraine for them to have babies in.

All the Ukraine backers here estimated, Putin rejected the peace plan as they continue to tell everyone that will listen that they are winning everywhere.

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Key Takeaways
Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the US-Ukrainian peace proposal during his meeting with a US delegation in Moscow on December 2 and remains highly unlikely to accept any compromises short of his original war goals.
The Kremlin intensified its cognitive warfare effort that aims to portray a Russian victory in Ukraine as imminent in the lead up to the December 2 US-Russia meeting, likely to coerce the West into accepting Russia’s absolutist demands.
Putin exaggerated Russia’s claimed seizure of Pokrovsk as strategically important for large scale breakthroughs. ISW has not observed evidence to confirm the complete Russian seizure of Pokrovsk, but Russia’s seizure of the town in the near future is unlikely to produce rapid Russian advances.
Putin also intensified efforts to portray the Russian economy as resilient and able to support protracted hostilities in Ukraine in the lead up to the December 2 meeting.
The Kremlin’s recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy is doing markedly worse than Putin’s portrayal, however.
Putin attempted to preemptively deflect blame onto Europe for Russia’s rejection of any peace plan iterations ahead of the December 2 US-Russian meeting.
Putin threatened Europe to prevent Europe from engaging in the peace process.
Russia may be trying to set information conditions to justify Russian strikes against Ukrainian ports to impose a de facto blockade of Ukraine.
Putin may also be setting information conditions to justify Russian attempts to seize Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts, although Russia’s seizure of these regions remains unlikely at this time.
Russian forces are modifying their Shahed-type drones to target Ukrainian air defenders. Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole.

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ISW more Putin BS

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A bet on what, exactly?

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Vol, don’t bet on football.

I think at least one commentor doesn't understand that Russia's tank fleet is all but gone. It has many more miles of border elsewhere than the front in Ukraine.

Another night, another failure of Russian air defense.

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Earlier, the head of VTB Andrey Kostin proposed the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance to “regulate” the ruble exchange rate in order to solve the problem of the budget deficit, which by the end of the year will be almost 5 trillion rubles. The banker noted that the current rate is “high”, and the level of 90 rubles for the dollar “would not be too much”.

At the same time, the budget needs an even weaker ruble - about 110-120 per dollar, but officials are afraid of the inevitable acceleration of inflation, a source told Reuters.

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Initially, the official rates of the dollar and the euro to the ruble were determined on the basis of currency trading on the Moscow Exchange. But since June 13, 2024, exchange trading in the dollar and the euro was canceled due to sanctions. Since that time, the Central Bank daily establishes official ruble rates to these currencies on the basis of reporting data from credit institutions based on the results of prisoners of interbank conversion operations in the over-the-counter foreign exchange market.

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But the Chinese are having none of it, if anyone knows a fake currency rate when they see it, it's the Chinese -

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At the same time, the official ruble exchange rate to the yuan continues to be established on the basis of exchange trading data.

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Kostin is going up against the siloviki, who are manipulating the currency stronger for overseas purchases to support the war industry. But as the Chinese are the only real supplier now, there may be other reasons for this manipulation. Shocking, I know.

By the way, on Tuesday the RU Central Bank issued 3 trillion rubles in repo bonds but yesterday they only issued 152 billion in repo. That's 0.15% . Is this repo shell game finally hitting a liquidity wall? In other words, are the Russian banks and Regional governments so stuffed with old repo bonds that they have no actual cash left to offer? Shocking, I know.

LINK

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Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the US-Ukrainian peace proposal during his meeting with a US delegation in Moscow on December 2 and remains highly unlikely to accept any compromises short of his original war goals.

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But, but, but texasags7 said the war is over!!!

Why would he lie?!?