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Posted on 11/18/25 at 3:15 pm to Leopold
Correct, mud on faces of all if no way to consummate this agreement.
The Arms Industry exports of France is historically a significant enough percentage of their economy to cause pain when sales are not achieved
The Arms Industry exports of France is historically a significant enough percentage of their economy to cause pain when sales are not achieved
This post was edited on 11/18/25 at 3:42 pm
Posted on 11/18/25 at 8:04 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
They can intend to follow through. But its possible it never gets to that point, and France has to know that. This is an order, not a gift. If Ukraine can't pay for whatever reason......
That's not really how international finance works. You don't come to an agreement over what could amount to tens of billions of dollars and then just say "Oh, that's okay" if they don't pay. Any country - France, the US, anybody - is going to a hard, hard look at the numbers before they accept this order.
How much does a French Rafale cost?
That, and people don't seem to understand that the defense industry and the sales that come from it is different. You don't just sell to anybody - it's not a car or a radio. The whole reason we held off an giving the Ukrainians certain things is because of the MASSIVE logistical train that comes from selling or giving them a fighter jet and the complications that come from it. Along with the plane comes munitions, replacement parts, expertise, upgrades and a whole bunch of other stuff that costs as much as the plane itself.
In order to service this, you have train people, build factories, go through Top Secret Clearance procedures and all kinds of rigmarole. Just the building of the infrastructure could take years and billions of investments. I'm totally serious about this.
Again, France and Macron may just be stupid - they wouldn't be the first and they damned sure won't be the last, but what's more likely is that they took a long, hard look at the Ukrainians and said "yeah, we'll bet on this horse."
Posted on 11/18/25 at 8:13 pm to Leopold
Holy crap...
Russian crude is now selling at around $36 per barrel:
Price of Russian Oil
Keep in mind they have to sell somewhere between $40-$90 per barrel to break even. (There is a large disagreement where break even price is) I don't know how long they can keep this up but they are relying on the oil industry to feed them and keep fighting. If they are losing money on the oil industry itself they are straight F'd.
Russian crude is now selling at around $36 per barrel:
Price of Russian Oil
Keep in mind they have to sell somewhere between $40-$90 per barrel to break even. (There is a large disagreement where break even price is) I don't know how long they can keep this up but they are relying on the oil industry to feed them and keep fighting. If they are losing money on the oil industry itself they are straight F'd.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 9:22 pm to Leopold
quote:
That's not really how international finance works. You don't come to an agreement over what could amount to tens of billions of dollars and then just say "Oh, that's okay" if they don't pay. Any country - France, the US, anybody - is going to a hard, hard look at the numbers before they accept this order.
In a vacuum, sure. This order isn't in a vacuum though. It's a signal to Russia, the rest of Europe, the US, and Ukraine. They aren't going to throw money at Ukraine for 3 years then all of a sudden become frugal capitalists toward them.
Even looking at it through that business lens, they know there is a chance Ukraine wont be able to pay, or might not even need the order. That shouldn't be at all controversial.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 10:58 pm to VolSquatch
There is a chance that Liberace wasn't gay
Posted on 11/18/25 at 11:50 pm to CitizenK
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If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:Again, more of a statement of intent rather than a huge monetary deal. Also keeps Colby in DoD ate up with the red arse.
Sustainment ensures Ukraine’s existing Patriot batteries remain effective, rather than just adding new systems. Signal to Russia: The U.S. continues to back Ukraine with advanced defense technology, sending a deterrent message. Industrial Impact: RTX and Lockheed Martin’s involvement highlights the role of U.S. defense contractors in maintaining Ukraine’s military resilience.
Key Takeaway This $105 million package isn’t about flashy new weapons — it’s about keeping Ukraine’s most advanced air defense system battle-ready. In a war defined by relentless missile and drone strikes, sustainment is as strategically vital as new deliveries. The U.S. is signaling that it won’t let Ukraine’s defenses falter due to wear and tear.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 11:59 pm to Leopold
At lunch in 2015 a new Russian CEO stated breakeven was $50.
Posted on 11/19/25 at 12:10 am to Coeur du Tigre
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On the night of November 18 residents of the city of Zugres in the occupied part of Donetsk region of Ukraine reported a large number of explosions. The moment of the attack was captured on camera. According to ASTRA's analysis, the strike hit the Zuevskaya thermal power plant, located 40 km east of Donetsk.
The installed electrical capacity of the plant at the end of 2013 was 1270 MW. At that time, four power units with individual capacities of 325, 320, 300, and 325 MW were in operation.
Residents of the neighboring city of Ilovaisk reported power outages, local media claim that the city is completely without power. The occupying “authorities” have not commented on the situation.
Posted on 11/19/25 at 3:18 am to Coeur du Tigre
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Russian companies pay out almost 40% of their profits in interest on debts, according to data from the analytical center CMAKP.
In September, this figure reached a record 39%, which is 1.5 times higher than nine months ago and more than three times higher than two years ago.
This is 40% net revenue going directly to the Russian defense industry. Russian banks have been forced to make loans to defense industries and in return non-defense companies are forced to take loans from these banks. The retail industry has already collapsed, retail logistics will soon follow.
Posted on 11/19/25 at 4:35 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
more of a statement of intent rather than a huge monetary deal. Also keeps Colby in DoD ate up with the red arse.
It's critically important for our own national defense. Russia has altered its missiles to better evade Patriot interception, and it's now essential that we respond with new modifications of our own to keep our interception tech actually functioning at the highest level.
Ukraine is the testing ground. Some people don't seem to understand that once we put relatively important weapon systems into Ukraine, that we were committed to this conflict.
Posted on 11/19/25 at 4:46 am to VolSquatch
quote:
they know there is a chance Ukraine wont be able to pay, or might not even need the order. That shouldn't be at all controversial.
Can I split the difference between y'all? On the one hand, there's no way that Ukraine is going to purchase 100 Rafale jets and also 100 Gripens in the next 5 to 10 years. Even if using the frozen Russian assets, and even with some huge discounts given by Dassault and Saab, it's simply far too much money.
On the other hand, Ukraine's remaining old Soviet/Russian planes are barely functional right now and will very soon be completely unsafe to fly because of the wear and tear that they are getting. And the F-16s that were given to Ukraine were also old, and relatively few in number, and there's no indication that the US is going to provide Ukraine with new ones.
In the long term, Ukraine's air force will obviously need modern aircraft. The Gripen and the Rafale fill different roles, and it's quite logical for Ukraine to acquire a significant number of both. To aspire to acquire 100 each makes sense if they are thinking about how to have a strong military in the long-term.
But it's also simply not going to happen. Both orders will ultimately be filled with fewer planes. The large numbers are partly for propaganda value.
This post was edited on 11/19/25 at 4:48 am
Posted on 11/19/25 at 6:14 am to cypher
Posted on 11/19/25 at 7:03 am to cypher
Russia economy is in big trouble as is the budget for the government.
Posted on 11/19/25 at 7:19 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
But it's also simply not going to happen. Both orders will ultimately be filled with fewer planes. The large numbers are partly for propaganda value.
Bingo
Posted on 11/19/25 at 7:20 am to CitizenK
quote:
Russia economy is in big trouble
How many years do you have to say this, or some version of it, daily before you get tired of it?
"We've got Putin right where we want him now!"
Posted on 11/19/25 at 7:25 am to CitizenK
quote:
and you sold off the shelf (from Grainger) specifically designed large process gas compresssors. Sure you know
Why don't you answer his question?
He is accusing you of making something up and you have no answer for it. Drop a name. If he is such a big deal we will be able to google it and find him, and verify that he moved to Houston at some point.
Or don't, and verify what most of us think of you and your "insight".
Posted on 11/19/25 at 7:29 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Russia economy is in big trouble
How many years do you have to say this, or some version of it, daily before you get tired of it?
Do you think Russia’s economy is not suffering from this war?
Posted on 11/19/25 at 7:34 am to doubleb
quote:
Do you think Russia’s economy is not suffering from this war?
I know they are suffering.
I also know we've heard from some on this board how they are months away from economic collapse, in "big trouble", etc etc for years now, and yet Russia keeps fighting and won't even seriously talk about peace.
This post was edited on 11/19/25 at 7:35 am
Posted on 11/19/25 at 8:03 am to VolSquatch
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Every night another one or three power stations...
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