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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 11/17/25 at 10:29 am to VolSquatch
Posted on 11/17/25 at 10:29 am to VolSquatch
quote:
I would say its pretty obvious things are trending toward Ukraine's manpower gap becoming more and more of an issue as time goes on. Ukraine wants to kill Russia's ability to wage war because if Russia can continue to wage war Ukraine eventually will have to surrender with unfavorable terms IF they even get that option.
So no change ?
1
Posted on 11/17/25 at 12:48 pm to texag7
Retail is leaving Russia
Posted on 11/17/25 at 12:57 pm to doubleb
More bad news concerning Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole, but better news about Kupyansk.
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian forces are attempting to complete their encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
The situation in the Hulyaipole direction remains very serious as Russian forces continue to advance and maintain intensified offensive operations.
Ukrainian forces report that they are successfully pushing back Russian efforts to seize Kupyansk. These reports are generally consistent with ISW’s assessments.
The Kremlin used an interview with Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Deputy Viktor Medvedchuk to reiterate Russia’s objective of absorbing all of Ukraine into Russia – possibly under the control of Medvedchuk himself. Medvedchuk’s statements are consistent with ISW’s assessments that Russia aims to absorb all of Ukraine and with US President Donald Trump’s statements that Putin “wants all of it.” Russian forces continue to encourage war crimes against Ukrainian servicemembers and civilians on the battlefield.
ISWRussian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Posted on 11/17/25 at 1:54 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Roman Kostenko says the number of soldiers who are AWOL in the Ukrainian army will soon equal the number actually in the army.
Since awol doesn't get you auto discharged, it's hard to believe we're approaching 100% awol.
Posted on 11/17/25 at 2:00 pm to MoarKilometers
quote:
Since awol doesn't get you auto discharged, it's hard to believe we're approaching 100% awol.
I don't log in to X on my computer but Rob Lee tweeted it, its apparently from a TSN.UA article.
Posted on 11/17/25 at 3:45 pm to VolSquatch
We discussed this last week. AWOL and Desertion are two different things.
Posted on 11/17/25 at 5:29 pm to CitizenK
Two things are both true:
1) The AWOL numbers are bad.
2) They are not nearly as bad as they look, because many soldiers go AWOL to transfer to other units, and many are AWOL only for a short time and then return to their units.
1) The AWOL numbers are bad.
2) They are not nearly as bad as they look, because many soldiers go AWOL to transfer to other units, and many are AWOL only for a short time and then return to their units.
Posted on 11/17/25 at 5:48 pm to GOP_Tiger
Wow. Do read this Kommersant article about the collapse of the Russian cargo aviation industry.
LINK
Do read the whole thing.
Every single one of these interconnected problems will only get worse if Trump tightens sanctions on Russia. Collectively, they also illustrate just how screwed the Russian economy is for a decade or more, because most of the issues don't go away when peace is declared and "normalcy" returns to the Russian economy.
LINK
quote:
Cargo air carriers fear the risk of leaving the market within three to five years amid acute spare parts shortages, lengthy repair queues, depleted resources, and a shortage of pilots and maintenance personnel.
quote:
Moreover, over the past three and a half years, the fleet of airworthy aircraft operated by carriers has halved
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Without government support, the industry will not be able to survive for more than five years
quote:
Most carriers' fleets after 2022 will be comprised of aging Soviet-era aircraft. Meanwhile, there are no state programs for the mass delivery of domestic cargo aircraft or for converting passenger aircraft into cargo aircraft, carriers note.
quote:
airlines have proposed increasing the designated service life of Il-76TD airframes from 40 to 45 years.
Furthermore, due to the acute shortage of D30 KP-2 engines for the Il-76TD, airlines are advocating for an extension of the engine's designated service life from at least 14,000 to 16,000 hours.
quote:
Repairs take up to a year, confirmed Ivan Perelomov, Deputy General Director for Production at Uktus Airlines. Moreover, the acute shortage of spare parts, he said, is leading to a dramatic increase in their prices from vendors.
quote:
The market is also facing a shortage and obsolescence of simulators for the Il-96, Tu-204, and Il-76. The simulator for the latter aircraft type is the only one left in Ulyanovsk, and pilots of Russian and foreign Il-76 operators are forced to wait in line to learn it.
quote:
"Rising costs must be passed on to consumers. The market will certainly shrink, and some will leave, but the remaining carriers will be able to raise rates and restore margins," Mr. Kramarenko believes.
Do read the whole thing.
Every single one of these interconnected problems will only get worse if Trump tightens sanctions on Russia. Collectively, they also illustrate just how screwed the Russian economy is for a decade or more, because most of the issues don't go away when peace is declared and "normalcy" returns to the Russian economy.
Posted on 11/17/25 at 6:43 pm to GOP_Tiger
Exactly what my well connected Russian friend said in 2022 about the Russian economy. His degree from University of Moscow was in Political Economics. He is a former director of finance for Gazprom who has been living in Houston for over 15 years since leaving Gazprom in 2007.
This post was edited on 11/17/25 at 6:51 pm
Posted on 11/17/25 at 9:04 pm to CitizenK
Below breakeven point for sure. Russia is only getting cash flow at below cost to produce and get to market.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 12:03 am to CitizenK
Russia can’t fight until 27 unless something breaks or they will go
Under
Under
Posted on 11/18/25 at 2:12 am to TutHillTiger
TPP - Thermal Power Plant
LINK
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If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
Purported videos posted on social media appear to show a large explosion and subsequent fire emanating from the Zuivska Thermal Power Plant in the occupied community of Zuhres in Donetsk Oblast, following a projectile strike on the target.
quote:
Independent Russian media outlet Novaya Gazeta Europe reported that power outages in Russia have increase by about one-third over the past year. It's estimated that Ukrainian drone attacks have caused 467 outages in 2025.
LINK
Posted on 11/18/25 at 2:19 am to Coeur du Tigre
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Omsk is north of Kazakhstan in Southwestern Siberia.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 2:25 am to Coeur du Tigre
Time for another visit -
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The question being, what were they targeting? The gas turbines (GT) are outside (targeted at Voronezh & Belgorod but the GTs are inside) and the 2 steam turbines & generators are inside (ST) with 2 ST XFRs outside with concrete walls. That part of bldg may be ops & controls.
quote:
The damage is of the (most likely) control center & missed vital equipment, namely Steam Turbine 1's generator transformer outside inside concrete walls. Getting at the XFRs requires a steep dive... why Simferopol & Sebastopol CCGTs are still operating
Posted on 11/18/25 at 2:32 am to Coeur du Tigre
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Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) is sounding the alarm as lobbyists and clergy linked to the Russian Orthodox Church — long aligned with Putin and Russia’s security services — arrive in Washington on Nov. 18 to meet with the White House Faith Office, State Department officials, and members of Congress.
The delegation is urging U.S. lawmakers to accept Moscow’s narrative that Ukraine is “persecuting” Orthodox Christians. Meanwhile, several House Republicans are urging AG @AGPamBondi to investigate whether Moscow or its intelligence services are trying to influence or recruit U.S.-based Orthodox churches tied to Russia.
RepJoeWilson warns that ROCOR is “actively seeking to expand its political influence in the United States,” including through this week’s lobbying push on Capitol Hill.
quote:
The group said it is looking to discuss with the administration and members of Congress “escalating religious freedom violations being carried out against the Ukrainian Orthodox Church by the Ukrainian government.”
That narrative has found allies among President Trump’s MAGA base, including Vice President Vance and Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News host whose independent podcast garners hundreds of thousands to millions of views.
The delegation is being shepherded by Peter Flew, listed as a member of the legal team representing the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, and Catherine Whiteford, co-chair of the Young Republican National Federation, according to an email reviewed by The Hill.
Whiteford has been endorsed by Robert Amsterdam, who represents the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) in its U.S. campaign to emphasize Kyiv as the religious oppressor. Amsterdam was brought in as a lobbyist for the UOC by Vadim Novinsky, The Washington Post reported last year, citing him as a Russian Ukrainian tycoon with ties to the top leadership of the Russian Orthodox Church.
The Ukrainian Orthodox Church is an offshoot of the Russian Orthodox Church, headquartered in Moscow and under the leadership of Patriarch Kirill.
LINK
This post was edited on 11/18/25 at 2:47 am
Posted on 11/18/25 at 2:38 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 11/18/25 at 2:44 am to Coeur du Tigre
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If tweet fails to load, click here. And if we think these numbers are bad, just wait for Lukoil's 4th Quarter...
Posted on 11/18/25 at 4:39 am to CitizenK
quote:
discussed this last week. AWOL and Desertion are two different things.
And last week it was being said that most of the AWOLs are people going to see the wife for a while and coming back. That's not what was being reported earlier. These people are skipping town before even completing training, those types aren't trying to come back.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 6:26 am to Coeur du Tigre
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