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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 8/20/25 at 5:02 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 8/20/25 at 5:02 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
But if the failure rate were as high as you were claiming,
I decided to look at the numbers. There have been 1582 people executed since 1976 and over 200 exonerations. That puts the incorrect conviction rate (among cases that are finished) at nearly 13%, which is OUTRAGEOUS. One may say some of them were incorrectly exonerated which is almost certainly true cut it in half and it is still over 6%.
quote:
we would have at least ONE proven example of it. We don't.
You have to learn when making and argument to try to make the counter-argument which will help expose your flaws. You are ignoring the mechanisms of exoneration. Once someone is executed almost all time and resources spent on scrutinizing their case stop and move on to people that are still alive. It is very unlikely someone would be exonerated post execution at least in the eyes of the law. You are also glossing over the fact that very few cases get the level of indepth scrutiny the exonerations required.
quote:
Coupled with leaps in tech involving forensics, cameras being everywhere (and most are extremely high quality even compared to the early 2000's), tracking devices being on most phones and many cars all the time. I think it's almost non-existent today and the data we do have backs me up.
You are missing the huge fact that capital case defenses are almost always resource-limited and have far less access to the forensics than the prosecution does. If every capital case defense had equal availability to resourses that the police/prosecution does you would at least have an arguable point as it is you simply do not.
Innocent people have been and will continue to be executed. It is a product of an imperfect system with imperfect humans involved. If you are pro death penalty, you just have to make peace with that. If you feel the need to argue the possibility away you probably want to rethink your stance.
I will stick with Franklin's opinion of Blackstone's ratio vis-a-vis the death penalty.
1
Posted on 8/20/25 at 5:49 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 8/20/25 at 5:55 pm to doubleb
quote:
Y’all need to ignore the guy.
"He" does argue like a wife or teen girl
Posted on 8/20/25 at 5:56 pm to texag7
More warm bodies for the Volkstrum.
Posted on 8/20/25 at 5:57 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Mainly just curious here to see if you see constitutions as essentially infallible, or if in certain circumstances you need to bend them some (but absolutely justify it when you do).
This is nonsensical. Constitutions aren't infallible, but they do structure the way a country is governed. In fact, after 2004, the office of the President of Ukraine is limited in who he can appoint and fire, meaning it is an office subject to the Verkhovna Rada. The constitution extends the authority of the Verkhovna Rada until the cancellation of the order of martial law. The Verkhovna Rada could decide to designate an election for the office of the President of Ukraine, but there are several reasons why that body (made up of 435 deputies) has chosen not to pursue an election. Firstly, more than a third of the Ukrainian population would find it challenging to participate, as they are either internally displaced or are externally displaced. That doesn't count the number of Ukrainians who might be living in Russian-occupied territory. Secondly, Ukraine does not have an e-voting system, and thus election infrastructure could be targeted by Russia to influence the election. Even online infrastructure could be targeted, and no new voting system would likely be introduced if it doesn't allow for those who have limited access to technology to participate. Lastly, what does an election look like along the front lines?
The big danger is that the people most affected by the war and its consequences could be disenfranchised, through circumstance, which seems less than ideal, since they are arguably the key demographic in determining whether the war will continue.
Regardless, the suggestion of amending the constitution is a non-starter as well, as the Constitution explicitly forbids amending the constitution during times of martial law. And if you hear Zelensky speak, you can see that he understands his role, as even territorial concessions are up to the Verkhovna Rada, and not up to his sole discretion. It is entirely possible that Zelensky could negotiate a treaty which the Verkhovna Rada could reject.
quote:
But I do think you and others aren't telling the whole story by not acknowledging very real reasons why people are skeptical of the Zelensky government.
In what respect specifically? Give me something substantive.
Posted on 8/20/25 at 5:59 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Give me something substantive.
Godspeed
Posted on 8/20/25 at 5:59 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
ou are ignoring the mechanisms of exoneration. Once someone is executed almost all time and resources spent on scrutinizing their case stop and move on to people that are still alive. It is very unlikely someone would be exonerated post execution at least in the eyes of the law.
There are anti-death penalty organizations that all have a lot to gain by cracking a case post execution. With today's tech it's more possible than ever to do that. As far as I know there are no compelling cases that they've found.
quote:
You are missing the huge fact that capital case defenses are almost always resource-limited and have far less access to the forensics than the prosecution does. If every capital case defense had equal availability to resourses that the police/prosecution does you would at least have an arguable point as it is you simply do not.
So a completely innocent person isn't going to expend every possible resource to prove it? Sure, they can't out-resource the state. But I'm not sure that is going to be the thing to do someone in either in a capital case.
quote:
Innocent people have been and will continue to be executed. It is a product of an imperfect system with imperfect humans involved. If you are pro death penalty, you just have to make peace with that. If you feel the need to argue the possibility away you probably want to rethink your stance.
I am at peace with the possibility. But we don't know of any person in a very long time that was innocent and executed anyway, and I'm arguing that we can be more sure than ever of convictions in 2025 because of the factors I listed. If it happens, it isn't happening nearly as often as orgs like the innocence project imply it is, in my estimation.
Posted on 8/20/25 at 6:03 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
If Ukraine could do something to 100% win the war (without some mass causality event of civilians anywhere) but it violated their constitution, would you support them doing it?
Mainly just curious here to see if you see constitutions as essentially infallible, or if in certain circumstances you need to bend them some (but absolutely justify it when you do).
Let me see if I am clear, it appears you are conceding there is no legitimate argument to not having martial law in Ukraine at this time and the only way to have elections is to contravene their constitution. If this is accurate, we can move on to your thought experiment, and if not, then we can table it until you make your argument and we run this line out.
Posted on 8/20/25 at 6:16 pm to crazy4lsu
We have corrected many wrongs in our own history by altering our constitution. It's not nonsensical at all.
"Can't do democracy, the piece of paper says so" isn't a good reason. The reasons you expounded on ARE good reasons, and I agree with them pretty much entirely.
There are billions of dollars in cash and goods floating around in Ukraine as a result of this. Do you not at least see potential of abuse there by a governing body who to this point hasn't seemed to be realistic in their peace demands relative to their battlefield position, and that same body also can't be replaced by the people? Even if you don't think that's happening, it's blatantly obvious that it is a possibility and it's entirely understandable to be concerned about it.
I don't know how much of this is fluff vs reality, but the religious persecution point while also having suspended elections makes many people skeptical (we have quite a few on this board that this applies to). To me the reality on that seems to somewhere in between how each side sells the story.
"Can't do democracy, the piece of paper says so" isn't a good reason. The reasons you expounded on ARE good reasons, and I agree with them pretty much entirely.
quote:
But I do think you and others aren't telling the whole story by not acknowledging very real reasons why people are skeptical of the Zelensky government.
In what respect specifically? Give me something substantive.
There are billions of dollars in cash and goods floating around in Ukraine as a result of this. Do you not at least see potential of abuse there by a governing body who to this point hasn't seemed to be realistic in their peace demands relative to their battlefield position, and that same body also can't be replaced by the people? Even if you don't think that's happening, it's blatantly obvious that it is a possibility and it's entirely understandable to be concerned about it.
I don't know how much of this is fluff vs reality, but the religious persecution point while also having suspended elections makes many people skeptical (we have quite a few on this board that this applies to). To me the reality on that seems to somewhere in between how each side sells the story.
Posted on 8/20/25 at 6:22 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Let me see if I am clear, it appears you are conceding there is no legitimate argument to not having martial law in Ukraine at this time and the only way to have elections is to contravene their constitution. If this is accurate, we can move on to your thought experiment, and if not, then we can table it until you make your argument and we run this line out.
My original reply to you was just laying out why not allowing elections during martial law is a double edged sword (which you agreed with). I didn't say whether it was good or bad that Ukraine was doing it. I said there is the potential for people to exploit the situation (which you presumably agree with since that is part of the "double edged" aspect of it. And I have agreed with most of your points on the subject, and pointed that out at least twice now.
Posted on 8/20/25 at 6:26 pm to VolSquatch
quote:If you're insisting on making up nicknames for posters so others don't know who you're referencing then I'll do the same for you.
I was replying to Cope
From now on you are hereby dubbed "Verbose." It fits you.
Some of your posts are almost as long as Tolstoy's War and Peace.
At least his masterpiece was clear and precise (the Cyrillic (Russian) sections not so much the French language sections) and certainly not like the garble of word salads that you spew.
Posted on 8/20/25 at 6:38 pm to LSURussian
quote:
If you're insisting on making up nicknames for posters so others don't know who you're referencing then I'll do the same for you.
I didn't make it up and the regulars know exactly who that is
he has been called that for months quote:
From now on you are hereby dubbed "Verbose." It fits you.
Some of your posts are almost as long as Tolstoy's War and Peace.
At least his masterpiece was clear and precise (the Cyrillic (Russian) sections not so much the French language sections) and certainly not like the garble of word salads that you spew
I wish that were as clever as you thought it was, you clearly put some effort into it. Just call me a **** or something next time, that's more your speed.
This post was edited on 8/20/25 at 6:46 pm
Posted on 8/20/25 at 6:38 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
There are anti-death penalty organizations that all have a lot to gain by cracking a case post execution.
If these entities had infinite resources, that would be a logical statement. In the real world these entities have very limited resources and it makes far less sense to spend them exonerating a dead person. Those resourses would be much better spent trying to save someone else life. Further, I think the fact that over 200 people being exonerated vs 1600 who have been ultimately put to death should ring the alarm bell loud and clear there is a huge issue and we shouldn't be imposing one of the few penalties that can't be at least partially remedied if found erroneous. The people that aren't swayed by this won't be swayed by proof that one case ended in a wrongful execution because the numbers almost certainly support this as it is.
quote:
With today's tech it's more possible than ever to do that.
Still takes massive resources from a system that has very limited resources which is why most cases never get a high level of post-conviction scrutiny.
quote:
o a completely innocent person isn't going to expend every possible resource to prove it?
How many people do you think have the ability to fund a $1 million plus dollar capital defense?
quote:
I am at peace with the possibility.
That is all that matters.
quote:
But we don't know of any person in a very long time that was innocent and executed anyway, and I'm arguing that we can be more sure than ever of convictions in 2025 because of the factors I listed.
The number overturned vs the number that have actually received intense resource-heavy scrutiny make the chances we haven't and won't in the future execute people erroneously almost zero. If someone told you 13% of a car model blew up because of a manufacturing flaw and only 40% of those explosions were seriously investigated, you wouldn't be very convinced that all of the manufacturing flaws were identified, because it would beggar belief.
It is OK to be at peace with innocent people dying when you have no direct control over it, it happens thousands of times a day.
Posted on 8/20/25 at 6:41 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
We have corrected many wrongs in our own history by altering our constitution. It's not nonsensical at all.
"Can't do democracy, the piece of paper says so" isn't a good reason.
It is nonsensical because it is under the discretion of Verkhovna Rada without any amendments necessary. The limits on executing a possible election are matters of practicality, not limits of governance. While it might be easier to for Zelensky to say that elections are forbidden by the constitution during times of martial law, it is more correct to say that the Verkhovna Rada has the power to make that determination of when to hold an election and has not due to several reasons.
quote:
There are billions of dollars in cash and goods floating around in Ukraine as a result of this. Do you not at least see potential of abuse there by a governing body who to this point hasn't seemed to be realistic in their peace demands relative to their battlefield position, and that same body also can't be replaced by the people? Even if you don't think that's happening, it's blatantly obvious that it is a possibility and it's entirely understandable to be concerned about it.
Sure, we can be concerned about it and we can point to efforts by the Ukrainians to limit the possibility of corruption. We can infer that since the Verkhovna Rada amended to the constitution to codify the strategic goal of entering into the EU in 2019, that they must at least pretend to care about corruption in order to bring Ukraine in line with the organizations it aims to join. That said, even though the EU is regarded as one of the least corrupt regions in the world, 70% of Europeans believe that corruption is widespread in their society. I bring this up to show that how people feel about corruption and how governments deal with corruption are two different things. It could be the case that there are personal instances of corruption attested to by Ukrainians themselves while government authorities work to battle it. That they are making an effort is at least an important signal that they are attempting to bring themselves in line with the EU so they can attain membership status one day.
And of course there is a danger that the most radical wing of Ukrainian politics might currently be dominating the Rada and thus coloring the view of what a Ukrainian future could possibly look like, but generally, the more diffuse and large a body is, the less likely it is that happens. The biggest issue for the Ukrainians, in my view, is that they have a unicameral legislature rather than a bicameral legislature. The division of responsibilities as well as allowing for different terms can lead to more circumspect governance, but that isn't a possibility at this time. Regardless, that isn't what is happening in the Rada currently, as originally Zelensky's party had 254 seats. Around 40 of those deputies are now in de facto opposition, which has forced Zelensky's party to work with the opposition to pass legislation, which again has a moderating effect.
At the same time, Ukrainian government authorities are still responsive, as seen by the recent anti-corruption agency protests, as well as smaller initiatives, such as a citizen-led petition to regulate online gambling by soldiers on the front, which led to Zelensky signing a decree to that effect.
quote:
I don't know how much of this is fluff vs reality, but the religious persecution point while also having suspended elections makes many people skeptical (we have quite a few on this board that this applies to). To me the reality on that seems to somewhere in between how each side sells the story.
Given how these things seem to play out, it ends up being something much more benign than originally stated. The truth is often more boring than the story the media portrays.
Posted on 8/20/25 at 6:42 pm to texag7
quote:
Ukrainian military recruiters attacked a family with two little kids in the car.
It is insane. This manhunt on Ukranian men is crazy and lawless.
Of course, there is no way a known Russian propaganda website like Lord Bebo would ever produce a misleading video to make simple-minded westerners believe that Ukraine's military recruiting is inhumane and violent so we would conclude that only the Russians are Godly and pure of heart...
Certainly NOT!!
Posted on 8/20/25 at 6:44 pm to cypher
Posted on 8/20/25 at 6:44 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Just call me a **** or something need (sic) time,
Okay, you're an a-hole...
Posted on 8/20/25 at 6:45 pm to LSURussian
quote:
we would conclude that only the Russians are Godly and pure of heart...
quote:
LSURussian
Sensing some possible bias here
Posted on 8/20/25 at 6:46 pm to LSURussian
I didn't cringe at that one like I did the last one, good job
Posted on 8/20/25 at 6:54 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Of course, there is no way a known Russian propaganda website like Lord Bebo would ever produce a misleading video
I’d believe him over you
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