re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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Who said Russia has a plan?


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The plans for the Blatic State invasion were found and leaked


Brother, it looks like you did

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The first refers to an overall plan...

The second to specific theater plans.

The see-saw of logic on this board:

"Europeans should have armed themselves to defend against Russia a long time ago.”
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"Russia isn't strong enough to be a threat to Europe.”

So why should Spain or someone very unlikely to ever face a direct Russian threat give a shite and spend anything on defense?

I've always been fascinated by Switzerland, which decided to build tunnels in mountains and make fortresses and just not bother with anything external. I don't agree with that... but it's fascinating (especially the tunnels themselves). And I see Americans kind of turning that way... "we're geographically isoalted, who cares about anybody else." But... we are the Big Kahuna and the most powerful nation on the planet... we're the big kid on the playground. I don't believe we will be ignored... there will alway be a Pearl Harbor, somneone will feel they have to knock us off to be the King, one way or another.

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The see-saw of logic on this board:

"Europeans should have armed themselves to defend against Russia a long time ago.”
/
"Russia isn't strong enough to be a threat to Europe.”

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Actually its "If European leadership actually thought Russia were such a threat, they WOULD have armed themselves a long time ago.

And present day Russia isn't strong enough to be a threat to Europe.

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The see-saw of logic on this board:

"Europeans should have armed themselves to defend against Russia a long time ago.”
/
"Russia isn't strong enough to be a threat to Europe.”


Actually its "If European leadership actually thought Russia were such a threat, they WOULD have armed themselves a long time ago.

And present day Russia isn't strong enough to be a threat to Europe.

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so why should they arm up? China? That's geographically unlikely as fas a military aggression.

Can't really compare a terrorist attack to a full blown invasion of a country. Bottom line is Russia does not have the capability to launch an invasion of Europe and it turn out even remotely successful for them. They would be facing the latest and greatest of equipment that is currently giving them hell in Ukraine.

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National Wealth Fund, which is the monetary fund of last recourse in Russia.

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Another of its primary uses is to provide support for the Russian pension fund which has been leaning on it heavily in the last couple of years.

I am always skeptical about the doom saying of countires with large economies such as China and the US. Inertia seems to be able to carry them through almost any crisis in the modern day. That said Russia is not as large and their exports are not highly diversified and thus become an easy target for sanctions. While they have been getting around them to some extent it has caused pain. They have also been raiding the piggy banks of the oligarchs which has resulted in multiple people falling out of windows. Those piggybanks are not unlimited.

The central bank has been running its printing machines 24/7 and to make matters worse, the Kremlin has been forcing MIC and MIC adjacent companies to bottow money and forcing the banks to loan the money. This means there are a lot of economic snow balls rolling down hill fast.


Some of you may remember from the other thread I like to hear the words of Russians from their own mouths. An example is Russian Media Monitor on YT with translations of Russia State TV, which is the mouthpiece of the Kremlin that says what Putin can't. Solovyov, Simonyan, and Skabeyeva are all insightful.

One outlet I have grown fond of more recently is Steve Rosenberg on YT. He is the Russian editor for BBC News. He has covered Russia for over 25 years and lives in Moscow. He reads multiple Russian newspapers every day that he gets from a little old lady (Valentina) who has a newspaper kiosk in Moscow (He has a whole series on Valentina). He then makes a YT video about some of the important bits from the different papers. It has some interesting insights.


This is yesterday's read

Any preparation for such an invasion would be noticed well in advance giving these countries plenty of time to prepare defenses. Would Russia initially gain some ground? Most likely but it would quickly be repulsed. Also this invasion would not come until after complete control of Ukraine, there's no way Russia could open up another invasion front before that happens. If the last 3 years are any indication by the time Russia would establish complete control of Ukraine the Russian military as an effective fighting force might be diminished so much that any type of invasion is no longer possible.

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They should arm up because ultimately Europe should be in control of its own destiny. This insulates them against possible future Russian threats, as well as any future rifts that may occur with the US given the trajectory we are headed on.

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Currently Europe for defense purposes is NATO which includes the US and Canada.

But this was not alwsyd the case. You had Europe all broken up making alliances with other European nations. You had current European nations that were taken over by bigger nations.

Look at WWI and WWII for instance. Nations were not always on the same side.

European nations have seldom been j united as one until we came along. If we go away, what happens?

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Can't really compare a terrorist attack to a full blown invasion of a country. Bottom line is Russia does not have the capability to launch an invasion of Europe and it turn out even remotely successful for them. They would be facing the latest and greatest of equipment that is currently giving them hell in Ukraine.

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Russia didn't have the capacity to launch a full-blown invasion of Ukraine... they did it anyway and don't seem to be backing down.

Remember, Putin thinks his greatest advantage is "the weakness of Democracy." That he doesn't really answer to anyone unless the Russian population revolts (something he is very afraid of, but still feels it's somewhat unlikely) but the West is crippled by representational Democracy and the spoiled weakness of its citizens, who will give up rather than suffer prolonged inconvenience. In that respect, I suspect he has Germany actually pegged dead center. And he counts on people like Le Pen and Farage doing well in elections and then abandoning NATO efforts. There's a lot more to all of this than just tanks on a front.

Apparently, Ukraine, out of necessity, if relying too heavily on drones. Drones are a tool not a game changer.
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